Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Dave Stem <canslimdave2003@yahoo.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ANN at 8% loss
Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2003 13:28:51 -0700 (PDT)
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- --0-1037448461-1058041731=:48362 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii On another note, if you look at ANN's long term chart, you can see that every time it gets between 30-35, it suffers from some serious nose bleed and promptly heads back below 20. It's all time high was 35.02 back in '98. I think the cup and handles can do whatever they want below 35, but before I got excited about this stock, I'd wait for it to break above that very serious resistance. If it ever clears 35, I think the patterns will mean something, but until then this stock looks fairly range-bound and the pull back doesn't seem very surprising. On another note, IBD's charts only going back a year, don't they? If I pull up ANN on Metastock and only look at a year's worth of data, it looks like a beautiful cup and handle break out to a new high. One year of data fails to show the overhead resistance between 30-33 in May 2002. And it certainly doesn't show the repeated failures at that level. Just MHO. Dave in Santa Monica Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:HI John, Sometimes the devil's in the details on stocks such as ANN. To put things into perspective, first look at the recent base itself: http://www.breakoutwatch.com/katherine/ANN070303Wkly.JPG Pretty good base, but the sideways looking handle on the weekly chart looks a bit suspect. Here's an up close of the handle itself: http://www.breakoutwatch.com/katherine/ANNHandle071003.JPG The slight wedging in the handle means that the final shakeout may not have occurred, meaning that this one may not be quite ready to rock and roll. I'm familiar with ANN, having been a favorite shopping haunt for many years. But this is also a company that has had its problems with store management, appealing designs for its target audience and general poor inventory mangement. I'm more likely to go in and see how much of the current season is on the sales rack than to buy these days. That's always a good indication as to how they're doing. That aside, here's a look a the fundamentals in greater detail, which gives a better view than my subjective "sale rack" musings: http://www.breakoutwatch.com/katherine/ANNCE071003.JPG That aside, the question as to how to deal with a high volume pullback after the breakout is probably better addressed in looking at the technicals, particularly the handle. The action after the move above the pivot doesn't surprise me, in fact, I think the odds favor a continued shakeout here more than a continued move up. The only question is whether or not you're willing to sit it out and see if it can muster up a low volume decline followed by a stronger move up knowing the odds of it falling back into the base are probably 50/50. Katherine - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of John Calkins Sent: Friday, July 11, 2003 12:55 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] ANN at 8% loss Hi CANSLIMers, I bought ANN on Tuesday - breakout day - and today it pulled back below its pivot on higher volume than its breakout day. In looking at at the intraday trading, there was a huge volume/price move early in the day then the stock was quiet the rest of the day. I watched closely during the day for a price swing at the end of the day so as not to jump the gun on selling. I saw the price creep up a little at the end of the day so I held. I have herd not to sell onfirst day intra-day movement but to watch the following day for continued movement. I almost pulled the plug anyway. Would it be wise to concider to sell Friday if the price does not rebound on volume during the day? This is the hardest part for me. I will of coarse sell if it drops to my mental 8% stop. I do not like the stock anymore because it did not move as I anticipated. I would have understood a drop on low volume, but this high volume drop gets my attention every time. This is the part that is so dissapointing. You spend weeks making a profit on one stock, then the next two drop like a rock. My selling at 7-8 % are engrained now. With the entry within a couple of percent of the pivot, at least I get a second day of watching before I pull the plug. The last stock I dropped was JOYG but that was clear to me on the volume and I got out even including my commistions. This down day on lower volume in the market has me holding off a bit. When I bought ANSS, a few days later the price moved down and "kissed the pivot" as Katherine says and it volume is predictible and still is. So I guess my question is would you sell ANN because of yesterdays price/volume action or give it a second chance? JC - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! - --0-1037448461-1058041731=:48362 Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii <DIV>On another note, if you look at ANN's long term chart, you can see that every time it gets between 30-35, it suffers from some serious nose bleed and promptly heads back below 20. It's all time high was 35.02 back in '98. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I think the cup and handles can do whatever they want below 35, but before I got excited about this stock, I'd wait for it to break above that very serious resistance. If it ever clears 35, I think the patterns will mean something, but until then this stock looks fairly range-bound and the pull back doesn't seem very surprising. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>On another note, IBD's charts only going back a year, don't they? If I pull up ANN on Metastock and only look at a year's worth of data, it looks like a beautiful cup and handle break out to a new high. One year of data fails to show the overhead resistance between 30-33 in May 2002. And it certainly doesn't show the repeated failures at that level. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Just MHO.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Dave in Santa Monica</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><BR><BR><B><I>Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net></I></B> wrote: <BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid; WIDTH: 100%">HI John,<BR><BR>Sometimes the devil's in the details on stocks such as ANN. To put things<BR>into perspective, first look at the recent base itself:<BR><BR>http://www.breakoutwatch.com/katherine/ANN070303Wkly.JPG<BR><BR>Pretty good base, but the sideways looking handle on the weekly chart looks<BR>a bit suspect.<BR><BR>Here's an up close of the handle itself:<BR>http://www.breakoutwatch.com/katherine/ANNHandle071003.JPG<BR><BR>The slight wedging in the handle means that the final shakeout may not have<BR>occurred, meaning that this one may not be quite ready to rock and roll.<BR><BR>I'm familiar with ANN, having been a favorite shopping haunt for many years.<BR>But this is also a company that has had its problems with store management,<BR>appealing designs for its target audience and general poor inventory<BR>mangement. I'm more likely to go in and see how much of the current season<BR>is on the sales rack than to buy these days. That's always a good indication<BR>as to how they're doing. That aside, here's a look a the fundamentals in<BR>greater detail, which gives a better view than my subjective "sale rack"<BR>musings:<BR><BR>http://www.breakoutwatch.com/katherine/ANNCE071003.JPG<BR><BR><BR>That aside, the question as to how to deal with a high volume pullback after<BR>the breakout is probably better addressed in looking at the technicals,<BR>particularly the handle. The action after the move above the pivot doesn't<BR>surprise me, in fact, I think the odds favor a continued shakeout here more<BR>than a continued move up. The only question is whether or not you're willing<BR>to sit it out and see if it can muster up a low volume decline followed by a<BR>stronger move up knowing the odds of it falling back into the base are<BR>probably 50/50.<BR><BR>Katherine<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>-----Original Message-----<BR>From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of John Calkins<BR>Sent: Friday, July 11, 2003 12:55 AM<BR>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>Subject: [CANSLIM] ANN at 8% loss<BR><BR><BR>Hi CANSLIMers,<BR><BR>I bought ANN on Tuesday - breakout day - and today it pulled back below its<BR>pivot on higher volume than its breakout day. In looking at at the intraday<BR>trading, there was a huge volume/price move early in the day then the stock<BR>was quiet the rest of the day. I watched closely during the day for a price<BR>swing at the end of the day so as not to jump the gun on selling. I saw the<BR>price creep up a little at the end of the day so I held. I have herd not to<BR>sell onfirst day intra-day movement but to watch the following day for<BR>continued movement. I almost pulled the plug anyway. Would it be wise to<BR>concider to sell Friday if the price does not rebound on volume during the<BR>day? This is the hardest part for me. I will of coarse sell if it drops to<BR>my mental 8% stop. I do not like the stock anymore because it did not move<BR>as I anticipated. I would have understood a drop on low volume, but this<BR>high volume drop gets my attention every time. This is the part that is so<BR>dissapointing. You spend weeks making a profit on one stock, then the next<BR>two drop like a rock. My selling at 7-8 % are engrained now. With the<BR>entry within a couple of percent of the pivot, at least I get a second day<BR>of watching before I pull the plug. The last stock I dropped was JOYG but<BR>that was clear to me on the volume and I got out even including my<BR>commistions. This down day on lower volume in the market has me holding off<BR>a bit. When I bought ANSS, a few days later the price moved down and<BR>"kissed the pivot" as Katherine says and it volume is predictible and still<BR>is. So I guess my question is would you sell ANN because of yesterdays<BR>price/volume action or give it a second chance?<BR><BR>JC<BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.<BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE></DIV><p><hr SIZE=1> Do you Yahoo!?<br> <a href="http://pa.yahoo.com/*http://rd.yahoo.com/evt=1207/*http://promo.yahoo.com/sbc/">SBC Yahoo! DSL</a> - Now only $29.95 per month! - --0-1037448461-1058041731=:48362-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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