RE: [CANSLIM] Market Trend Charts

From: "Pritish Shah" <pshah@lason.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Market Trend Charts
Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2003 00:13:36 -0400
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Fanus,

1. You are right, this flat baseline has happened two times historically =
only. That indicates a "likely" start of a trend according to Ken Towers =
(Chief Market Strategist at UST Securities Corp).

2. The NASDAQ has acted eeirily like the DJI of 1930s. Checkout http://www.=
lowrisk.com/nasdaq-1929.htm IBD had also printed a similar chart comparing =
the two indexes.

Fanus, I am no expert, but this I do know: When everyone becomes complacent=
, the stock market dives.

It is upto you to believe it or not. If you have some other theory, I am =
listening. Again, I am no expert so I am just a gatherer of information =
and learning from that information.

Thanks,
Pritish


>>> fanus13@yahoo.com 07/15/03 17:16 PM >>>
Pritish

1. You have something happening twice in the last 100
years on the DOW. (The flat periods).

2. The DOW is predominanly large stable companies and
you use that to forecast the NASDAQ which is growth
orientated. =20

So from a statistical approach you use two occurences
in the last 100 years to forecast another "different"
type of market.  If you use only two occurrences to
forecast something, I am sure anyone can come up with
something which happened twice over the last 100 years
to fit pretty much any future scenario you can come up
with.

Best Regards
- - Fanus
=20

- --- Pritish Shah <pshah@lason.com> wrote:
> Hi Kelly,=20
>=20
> I have been studying where I am making mistakes. A
> lot of my failures were bought when Nasdaq was
> touching the upper bollinger bands. Checkout the
> following chart. You will notice that Nasdaq is
> currently toying with the upper bollinger bands and
> has been bouncing from the 20dma. So the best time
> to buy would be when Nasdaq again touches 20dma and
> there are a flurry of breakouts.=20
>=20
>
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=3D^IXIC&d=3Dc&k=3Dc3&a=3Dvm,m26-12-9,ss,fs&p=
=3Dm20,b&t=3D6m&l=3Don&z=3Dl&q=3Db
>=20
>=20
> A lot of people have shown me charts that basically
> predict that the market will churn for the next few
> years and I believe that would be the trend. This is
> where CANSLIM can do much better than any other
> method of investing.=20
>=20
> Take a look at the following chart. You will notice
> that from 1937 to 1950 (13 yrs), the market was
> pretty much flat. From 1965 to 1983 also the market
> was flat. There was also a flat period before 1930
> but that is not shown on the graph.=20
>=20
>
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=3D^DJI&d=3Dc&k=3Dc3&p=3D&t=3Dmy&l=3Don&z=3Dl&q=
=3Dl
>=20
>=20
> Basically after every major rise, the market pauses
> for several years and then tries again. This has
> happened 3 times on DJI. Nasdaq is currently
> behaving exactly like DJI from 1930 to 1933. If it
> continues to behave like DJI, for next year and
> half, we are not going to go anywhere and then there
> will be a major move upwards.
> =20
> I am open for discussions but not flames please.
> =20
> Thanks,
> Pritish
>=20
>=20
> >>> kelly.short@fw.us.neoris.com 07/15/03 02:40PM
> >>>=20
> Gene,=20
>=20
> What was in your patriotic Wheeties this morning?!
> Thanks for the explanation though. Have you thought
> about a career in politics because that answer was
> perfectly on the middle ground.=20
>=20
> Okay, okay. I'll ride the trend. I'm just bitter:
> three of my recent BO purchases have gotten SARS and
> are in quarantine. I fear I may lose them to the
> "disease", or the hurricane, or whatever ailment is
> keeping them from soaring.=20
>=20
> That said- I did enjoy reading the information you
> passed along- thanks!=20
>=20
> Kelly=20
>=20
> -----Original Message-----=20
> From: Gene Ricci [ mailto:genr@swbell.net]=20
> Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 1:06 PM=20
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Trend Charts=20
>=20
>=20
> Kelly, forgive the clich=E9......... "The trend is
> your friend".=20
>=20
> Now here's another profound statement "the trend is
> up until proven otherwise".=20
>=20
> Many indicators are showing overbought, but they can
> stay overbought for a long long time. Take last
> year, they stayed oversold for a long long time.
> Most likely there is a bit of consolidation going on
> .... but who knows which way the break will occur.
> One just has to decide at what point the trend has
> changed from up to down (or sideways). And at what
> point another breakout to the upside has occurred.
> Each person must decide this on his/her own.=20
>=20
> We were told that there would not be a post war
> rally - is that true?=20
> We were told the new dividend law would not affect
> stock prices - is that true?=20
>=20
> Although I don't see signs of a renewed bear.... I
> hear them in the background.... moaning and groaning
> as they try to save face after losing their
> butts.... shorting this year.=20
>=20
> I feel that the market has to continue its upward
> trend because the public wants it to (to say nothing
> about the administration). When I attend meetings,
> read user group email and talk to friends I'm
> reminded of the Statue of Liberty....=20
>=20
> "give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses
> yearning to breathe free"=20
>=20
> translated to:=20
>=20
> We're tired (poor management, manipulation, lies,
> cooked books), we're poor, your investors are
> yearning to once again believe!!!! ... kind of corny
> but what the heck!=20
>=20
> Gene=20
>=20
>=20
>=20
>=20
> ----- Original Message -----=20
> From: Kelly Short <
> mailto:kelly.short@fw.us.neoris.com >=20
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
> Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 10:53 AM=20
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Market Trend Charts=20
>=20
>=20
> Gene,=20
>=20
> Do you have any opinions to offer regarding this
> information? I see that many stocks are above their
> 50 and 200 dma and that RS lines are trending
> downward. However, most stocks seem to be trading
> between their upper and lower bands and money flow
> doesn't seem to indicate enormous swings either way.
> Do you think the market is a) absorbing a recent
> run-up b) peaking before a short term decline
> towards a resistance point, or c) giving the bear
> market pundits fuel for the flames (e.g. forecasting
> a major decline)? I'd be interested to hear what you
> have to say. Thanks.=20
>=20
> Kelly=20
>=20
> -----Original Message-----=20
> From: Gene Ricci [ mailto:genr@swbell.net]=20
> Sent: Monday, July 14, 2003 7:19 PM=20
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
> Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Trend Charts=20
>=20
>=20
> May be of interest to you.=20
>=20
> Gene=20
>=20
>=20
>=20
> Charts have been updated through today (7/14)=20
>=20
> http://www.sectorrotationfund.com/MarketTrends.htm=20
>=20
> Duke Jones, CMT=20
> www.longboatglobal.com=20
> www.sectorrotationfund.com=20
>=20
>=20
>=20
>=20
>=20
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