Re: [CANSLIM] Low Volume Pullback Below Pivot

From: "John Calkins" <jcalkins@olypen.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Low Volume Pullback Below Pivot
Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2003 21:36:13 -0700
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Thanks to All for replying.

My question again was to get some thoughts about how to react to Low Volu=
me
Pullbacks below the Pivot. I've been successful at keeping my stop losses
smaller than the 7-8% rule lately because I've been able to spot the high
volume sell off and get out of a few failing breakouts with minimal loss.=
 BE
has been an all-low volume pullback not quite failing and I was intereste=
d
in how others might react to this type of action. If the stock recovers,
then it becomes a classic model of why we use 7-8% as a stop, and gives a
good (or maybe not so good) CANSLIM stock room to move or pullback.


I understood my risk in picking the stock to buy. I kept my position smal=
l
so I'm not loosing any sleep or stuck with indecision. I understand there
are a few that might reconsider the fundamentals and due diligence before
pulling the plug. I have been taught here to try to keep my selling based=
 on
chart action.

It is interesting how one investor sees an exit and another sees and
opportunity at the same moment. I don't see BE as a CANSLIM buying
opportunity right now because it went below its pivot.

I'm the most learned from Katherine's reply about how use the screening
methods and warnings about risk and due diligence. She did remind and sen=
d
me (and others I suppose) complete detailed instructions on how to use th=
eir
site so I'm quite comfortable in my selections and their support which in=
 my
estimation is incredible.

But I did get the most gratifying reply from Duane. Thanks Duane for maki=
ng
it real. Your studied response is so very close to how things really work
and the reason for having this communication with this group.

What a great group, my family tells me to be careful when I go Halibut
fishing in the Straits of Juan de Fuca too.

JC











- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Fanus" <fanus13@yahoo.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Monday, July 21, 2003 3:29 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Low Volume Pullback Below Pivot


> John
>
> I am also not clear on your question.  Why are you
> unsure on what to do if you have a stop in place? If
> it hit your stop, you sell. If it go higher, you trail
> it.   If you can't sleep because of your position and
> you agonize over it for days, then sell it. You can
> hope and fear all you want, but the market will do
> what it want. This is why you need a stop in place.
>
> I am also not a subscriber to breakoutwatch, but it is
> probably among other things, like all other screens,
> just a way to filter stocks and to give you a list of
> potential candidates. You still have to do your own
> research and not blindly buy all stocks in a screen.
>
> Regards
> - Fanus
>
> --- Gene Ricci <genr@swbell.net> wrote:
> > John, having difficulty understanding your message.
> > Here's my take:
> > 1. you based your purchase on an alert from B/O
> > Watch and your
> > interpretation of the rating of the stock by B/O
> > Watch
> > 2. now you want to know what to do with it
> > 3. you're questioning your use of the scores
> > provided by B/O Watch
> > to select stocks and asking for help in tightening
> > up your screen criteria
> >
> > My 2 cents:
> > 1. contact B/O Watch offline and ask them for
> > assistance because their
> > rating system is not familiar to all of us
> > 2. If today is an indication of anything, the price
> > and volume are picking up
> > ... the market is down but not BE... so you might
> > have a "winner". If in doubt,
> > sell and take your profit
> >
> > Gene
> >   ----- Original Message -----
> >   From: John Calkins
> >   To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> >   Sent: Monday, July 21, 2003 12:10 AM
> >   Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Low Volume Pullback Below
> > Pivot
> >
> >
> >   I guess I'm missing something here.  BE broke out
> > on BreakoutWatch last
> >   Tuesday with a "relative" high rating following
> > the WON screens with
> >   "reasonable" right cup and handle scores.  My
> > question was not if this stock
> >   was a poor choice, because it was a good choice at
> > the time it was bought.
> >   My question somehow got lost in the advice of it
> > shouldn't have been
> >   purchaced in the first place, wich surprised the
> > heck out of me because of
> >   where I got the information to buy it.
> >
> >   My question again is, now that I own it,  I
> > purchacesd BE just above the
> >   pivot on Tuesday.  It had pulled back on low
> >   volume right away to my 7% mental stop and is
> > sitting there.  Again, I will
> >   sell if it falls below it, but this low volume has
> > me hoping (you know
> >   hoping when I should be fearing, fearing when I
> > should be hoping).   I don't
> >   mind a low volume pullback above the pivot.  I get
> > a little lost in this
> >   grey area between the pivot an the stop loss.
> > Should I be hoping or fearing
> >   what the volume action is doing with this low
> > volume pull back or shoud I
> >   wait a bit for a high volume pull back to pull the
> > plug?
> >
> >   Getting back to the selecting of BE to purchace,
> > it was rated number 21 out
> >   of 50 for the days CE score.  If I'm so wrong for
> > selecting this stock to
> >   purchace, should I stick to the top 10 or top 5 or
> > a CE score of 17 of 18.
> >   If someone has some suggestions on tightening up
> > my screens maybe this is
> >   where I indeed need the advice so that I'm not
> > stuck with these types of
> >   decisions to make.  Maybe my alerts will signal me
> > once a month instead of
> >   once a week for a possible buy??
> >
> >
> >
> >   JC
> >
> >
> >   ----- Original Message -----
> >   From: <Spencer48@aol.com>
> >   To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> >   Sent: Sunday, July 20, 2003 11:23 AM
> >   Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Low Volume Pullback Below
> > Pivot
> >
> >
> >   > Dave & John:
> >   >
> >   >      I agree with Katherine.  Putting money in
> > BE would be a risky
> >   venture,
> >   > under the CANSLIM protocol.
> >   >
> >   >      Not only is its earnings for the last 5
> > years volatile (to say the
> >   > least), but there is too much overhead
> > resistance to-in my opinion-make it
> >   > acceptable (even though it has made a nice base
> > with a rising 200 and 50
> >   DMA.
> >   > Additonally, the volume on its bottoms are nice
> > and the price of the stock
> >   in
> >   > relation to its 2 Moving Averages bodes that the
> > stock is short term
> >   strong).
> >   >
> >   >      However, the downside overtakes the
> > upsides: Specifically, the number
> >   of
> >   > funds (according to DGO) investing in BE is
> > declining.  Also, the Mgt/Fund
> >   > ratio (funds hold 27% of the stock, while
> > management holds only 1%)  is
> >   27.
> >   > And, as I mentioned, the earnings are anything
> > but CANSLIMMISH.
> >   >
> >   >      Although, the industry is fine, to me this
> > stock seems a laggard in
> >   its
> >   > industry.  At the most, I believe it will go up
> > to 12=BD before pausing, and
> >   > with the weakness that the Mkt. appears to be
> > signaling, the pause in BE
> >   could
> >   > become a freefall back to its 2nd bottom of 6.
> >   >
> >   > jans
> >   >
> >   >
> >   >
> >   > In a message dated 7/18/2003 12:24:28 PM Eastern
> > Daylight Time,
> >   > kmalm@earthlink.net writes:
> >   >
> >   > << While BE provided entry points closer to its
> > bottom, I don't think it's
> >   >  provided a comfortable CANSLIM
> > intermediate/term entry point just yet.
> >   >  Entries on pullbacks would then be a riskier
> > venture, though highly
> >   do-able.
> >   >  If willing to take on the risk, I would look to
> > the general price action
> >   >  itself to find a pullback entry much closer to
> > the bottom of a logical
> >   >  support area if entering while the stock's
> > still forming a more
> >   convincing
> >   >  RHS. If the market rolls over, then an entry
> > here makes it easier to
> >   >  determine if the stock is going to roll over by
> > itself or in response to
> >   >  generally weak market action.
> >   >   >>
> >   >
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