Re: [CANSLIM] Another mystery plunge

From: "DMC197807" <dmc197807@comcast.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Another mystery plunge
Date: Fri, 25 Jul 2003 08:55:59 -0700

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Hong,

<<Why price drop?   The fundies and TA are all great.>>

I won't address the fundamentals, but I question whether the TA was all that
great.  On OSTE (TBL has similar characteristics, but I won't go into them
here, in view of time) you have a stock which pretty much tripled ($6 to
$16) in 4 months on a volume drive.  It broke its upward trend back in June,
then broke back down through the next uptrend this month.  It was making
fairly short, squat candlestick forms in the last run up to $16.30 as volume
was tailing off.  Moreover if you look at price by volume bars you can see a
huge buildup in the $14-15.50 area.  This indicates possible support at this
level, but also a lot of shares changing hands.  Profit taking.  Also, RSI
was clearly tiring last month and forming a big negative divergence with the
price action; bearish.

Finally, the overall market is incredibly topsy here, the VIX spiked below
20 yesterday and there are very few buyers out there left to buy, but plenty
of nervous sellers.  The overall condition of the market is, in a word,
bearish, and a retreating tide will strand all boats.  The very first
question any investor/speculator needs to ask is "how is the condition of
the market?"

In this market, no matter what the individual charts, the upside is limited
and the downside something like last May-July or worse, so the condition is
bad.  It is not, imho, a time to be buying equities, buying calls or selling
puts.  It is a time to be establishing shorts, selling calls and buying
puts, or investing in counter-market positions like bear funds and gold
equities/calls.

DMC



- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Hong Hsu" <honghsu@bellatlantic.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Friday, July 25, 2003 8:29 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Another mystery plunge


>        On 7/18 Duane reported TBL plunged $8 on no-bad-news earning
> release.  Today OSTE plunged 23% on 50% surprise of earning release.
>  The estimates is $0.10 vs. $0.02 year ago.  The actual earning is
> $0.15/share.
>
> Why price drop?   The fundies and TA are all great.    Your experience
> comments will be appreciated,
> -Hong
>
>
>
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