Re: [CANSLIM] Another mystery plunge

From: "DMC197807" <dmc197807@comcast.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Another mystery plunge
Date: Fri, 25 Jul 2003 10:37:56 -0700
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Pritish,

No offense taken.  I have no financial stake in any of these services.  TC2K
is a data service with free software.  The data I purchase (about $20/month)
I use not only to feed my TC2K monster, but my Metastock and AmiBroker as
well.  I could use the data in other ways, too, but time becomes an issue.
So the TC2K, with rather astounding, and astoundingly easy, programmability,
costs me $240 per year.

Let's remember what we're trying to do here:  find a stock, one stock, that
is the most likely to perform, and find that one stock on a frequency that
matches our investment/speculation goals.  I will hold a stock 1 day to 3
months (or longer) for performance, so I'm happy if I can find the one stock
out of 8,000 candidates once a week or so.  I'm also happy to look at the
charts of 40 stocks a day (TC2K is really pretty marvelous in its speed and
programmability) to do so.  It's quite relaxing, rather like playing cards.
I also have it programmed for MA crossovers, bullish and bearish moneystream
indications, volume surges, and high beta stocks showing interesting price
to moving average movements.

As for programming the TC2K for canslim, I did it in about 5 minutes--it was
pretty easy.  Does it match the CET thing?  I don't know, CET is proprietary
(I guess mine is too!).  But it does spit out 5-10 canslim candidates daily.
After that, I apply various other filters and then look at the charts.

And I'm not criticizing breakoutwatch.com or other programs.  What really
brought this up was Hong's statement that OSTE's TA was "great" based on a
blackbox rating.  When you look at the daily chart, however, paying close
attention to price action and volume, and other indicators, it seemed clear
that the TA was at least questionable.  In a feverishly bullish market, yes,
it might continue higher.  With the VIX spiking below 20, SPX COTs skewed
completely against the market, bull/bear at extremely bearish positions, and
put/call reminding us of May 02, is this the time to be going long on any
stock.

DMC

- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Pritish Shah" <pshah@lason.com>
To: <dmc197807@comcast.net>; <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Friday, July 25, 2003 9:56 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Another mystery plunge


DMC,

Please do not consider what I say as criticism.

With TC2K, you also have to purchase the subscription. Once you do that, you
have to do the programming in it with the information that it gives. If such
a program exists, then great. If not, then you have to do it yourself.

Also with TC2K, do you have to have the software running to get the alerts?

I am one of the subscribers of breakoutwatch.com and I find it convenient
that I can get the alerts anywhere via email.

I look at Total Cost of Ownership. If I were to spend five weeks programming
and perfecting TC2K, then I would have spent 5 wks * 40 hrs/wk * $40/hr or
$8000 +$300/yr. In contrast, my Total Cost of Ownership for
breakoutwatch.com to be effective is $900/yr.

No indicators are infallible. This is an "odds" game. What are the odds of
you succeeding? If you can improve the odds above 50%, you are successful.
If you improve the odds to 60%, it is good. If a tool helps you improve the
odds to 80%, it is great and that is what any indicator is about.

For some TC2K makes sense. For others breakoutwatch.com makes sense.

Pritish

>>> dmc197807@comcast.net 7/25/2003 12:30:15 PM >>>
Hong,

I'm not familiar with breakoutwatch.com's service (although I did just visit
their site).  It looks pretty pricey for something you can probably program
pretty well with TC2K and a subscription to IBD.  $900 per year for the
"platinum" service?

In general I don't think black boxes or canned trading systems work.  What
works is careful screening, careful analysis, disciplined trading and
disciplined money and position management.  Of  these four, the most
important are the latter two.

Academics (business schools) like to point out that no TA system has been
successfully backtested to perform over lengthy periods of time.  True
enough, because it is impossible to put in enough general market and proof
of trend indicators to reach a "scientific answer."  Further proof of
failure of black box systems was the LTCM debacle.  Also, as Steve Nison
likes to point out in analyzing candlesticks, unless you can define the
trend, you don't have a candlestick.

The big question here, the first question, is what is the condition of the
market.

Finally, as for the CET thing on OSTE, with a rating of 6.8 out of 7.0 and a
big plunge, what does that tell you about the infallibility of their rating
system?

DMC


- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Hong Hsu" <honghsu@bellatlantic.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Friday, July 25, 2003 9:12 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Another mystery plunge


>      DMC,
>
>     For OSTE, the total TA score  (CET) from breakoutwatch.com is 6.8
> out of 7.  With that score I will tend to believe it has solid TA.  Does
> it?   Maybe Katherine could share her insight.
>
>     -Hong
>
>
>
> -
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- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
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- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
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