Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "DMC197807" <dmc197807@comcast.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2003 09:01:25 -0700
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MessageGene,
Two thoughts come to mind. First is a ski area I frequent. Just below =
the highest lift are some cliffs which are out of bounds by regulation =
and also by dint of pure reason: they look like suicide. However, on =
any thick powder day there are a number of youth with their snowboards =
and skis doing the "extreme thing." For some reason only 2 people have =
gotten killed there in my memory, and a few bad accidents, but mostly =
these yahoos make it through. It doesn't mean it isn't an absurd risk =
to take, but there you are.
Is HITK still a falling knife, or is it safe to buy? =20
Second is: what is volume during normal trading and what is volume =
during a selloff? Clearly HITK is in a selloff, so I like to look at =
something like 10 day volume (or volume since the plunge) rather than =
60-day volume. Here the 60-day volume is 583,000, but the most recent =
8 days have coughed up about 10 million shares, or 1.25 million per day. =
I was looking at HITK early today and was surprised that the first =
hour, amateur hour, didn't produce more volume. It's now 2.5 hours into =
the trading day and it's still at 330,000 shares.
I think today is simply a pause on the way down. I have no money in =
this name now and only look at it to determine when, on a trading basis, =
the reward might outweigh the risk. That event might not happen for =
several weeks and might take place at a higher price than today's (in =
fact, could easily do so).
Mostly I think of this endeavor as the opposite of even recreational =
skiing. We want to find the easiest, most risk free way of having fun =
(making $$), not the adrenaline rushed version. If this were a ski =
slope, my scans would be scouting for not black diamond slopes or blue =
slopes. Unlike skiing, here I'm on the hunt for easy green slopes and =
even yellow bunny hop slopes.
Good luck,
DMC
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Gene Ricci=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 7:35 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
The power of the newsletter assumes control... up 6% and 1/3 of the =
daily volume already.
Gene
----- Original Message -----=20
From: DMC197807=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, July 26, 2003 10:35 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
Technically your risk/reward on this name would be skewed toward =
risk at this point. The chart shows no stopping yet, volume is still =
high and the daily patterns are bearish. The price dropped right =
through the 200 day EMA (25.85), is below any support on the daily =
(there looks like some support at $20 on the weekly). If $20 holds, =
who's interested in buying for a quick off the bat 20% loss?
I don't actually see why $20 should hold for more than a pause, =
anyway. To me there's no sense in looking for "bad news," it's all in =
the chart right now.
JMHO,=20
DMC
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Gene Ricci=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, July 26, 2003 6:30 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] HITK
If you still own HITK there may be a light in the tunnel. Change =
Wave (Tobin Smith) sent an alert to his 300,000 (?) subscribers to buy =
HITK on 7/25. Looking at the chart shows that the price dropped down and =
stabilized at its 200-day moving average at $23.14 before bouncing =
higher. It closed at $24.88 on 7/25. Other than a possible shortfall =
because of seasonal cough medicine sales I couldn't find any other bad =
news. Anyone know of any other issues?
Thanks,
Gene
I was forwarded the following;
A price under $25 is a great entry point for this dual
generic/diabetes play -- forget the noise from the momentum
buyers-turned-sellers. They were cleaned out with the huge volume
sales, so now it's time to build or add to your positions to get =
to
a $25 cost basis. I still think we can hold on for a $50 value at
the end of 2004 on $2 per share earnings in 2004.
Let's lower the buy under for HITK to $25.
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<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Message</TITLE>
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charset=3Diso-8859-1">
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Gene,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Two thoughts come to mind. First =
is a ski=20
area I frequent. Just below the highest lift are some cliffs which =
are out=20
of bounds by regulation and also by dint of pure reason: they look =
like=20
suicide. However, on any thick powder day there are a number of =
youth with=20
their snowboards and skis doing the "extreme thing." For some =
reason only=20
2 people have gotten killed there in my memory, and a few bad accidents, =
but=20
mostly these yahoos make it through. It doesn't mean it isn't an =
absurd=20
risk to take, but there you are.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Is HITK still a falling knife, or is it =
safe to=20
buy? </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Second is: what is volume during normal =
trading and=20
what is volume during a selloff? Clearly HITK is in a selloff, so =
I like=20
to look at something like 10 day volume (or volume since the plunge) =
rather than=20
60-day volume. Here the 60-day volume is 583,000, but the =
most=20
recent 8 days have coughed up about 10 million shares, or 1.25 million =
per=20
day. I was looking at HITK early today and was surprised that the =
first=20
hour, amateur hour, didn't produce more volume. It's now 2.5 hours =
into=20
the trading day and it's still at 330,000 shares.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I think today is simply a pause on the =
way=20
down. I have no money in this name now and only look at it to =
determine=20
when, on a trading basis, the reward might outweigh the risk. That =
event=20
might not happen for several weeks and might take place at a higher =
price than=20
today's (in fact, could easily do so).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Mostly I think of this endeavor as the =
opposite of=20
even recreational skiing. We want to find the easiest, most risk =
free way=20
of having fun (making $$), not the adrenaline rushed version. If =
this were=20
a ski slope, my scans would be scouting for not black diamond slopes or=20
blue slopes. Unlike skiing, here I'm on the hunt for easy =
green=20
slopes and even yellow bunny hop slopes.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Good luck,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DMC</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dgenr@swbell.net href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net">Gene =
Ricci</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, July 28, 2003 =
7:35 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
HITK</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">The power of the newsletter assumes =
control...=20
up 6% and 1/3 of the daily volume already.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Gene</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddmc197807@comcast.net=20
href=3D"mailto:dmc197807@comcast.net">DMC197807</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, July 26, 2003 =
10:35=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
HITK</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Technically your risk/reward on =
this name would=20
be skewed toward risk at this point. The chart shows no =
stopping yet,=20
volume is still high and the daily patterns are bearish. The =
price=20
dropped right through the 200 day EMA (25.85), is below any support =
on the=20
daily (there looks like some support at $20 on the weekly). If =
$20=20
holds, who's interested in buying for a quick off the bat 20%=20
loss?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I don't actually see why $20 should =
hold for=20
more than a pause, anyway. To me there's no sense in looking =
for "bad=20
news," it's all in the chart right now.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>JMHO, </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DMC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dgenr@swbell.net href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net">Gene =
Ricci</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, July 26, =
2003 6:30=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
HITK</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans =
MS"><FONT=20
size=3D4>If you still own HITK there may be a light in the tunnel. =
Change=20
Wave (Tobin Smith) sent an alert to his 300,000 (?) =
subscribers=20
to buy HITK on 7/25. <SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003>Looking =
at the=20
chart shows that the price dropped down and stabilized at its =
200-day=20
moving average at $23.14 before bouncing higher. It closed at=20
$24.88 on 7/25. Other than a possible shortfall because =
of=20
seasonal cough medicine sales I couldn't find any other bad news. =
Anyone=20
know of any other issues?</SPAN></FONT></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><SPAN =
class=3D670474503-26072003><FONT=20
face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D4></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><SPAN =
class=3D670474503-26072003><FONT=20
face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D4>Thanks,</FONT></SPAN></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><SPAN =
class=3D670474503-26072003><FONT=20
face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D4>Gene</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" =
size=3D4></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D4>I was forwarded the=20
following;</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><FONT face=3DArial=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><EM>A price under $25 is a =
great entry=20
point for this dual<BR>generic/diabetes play -- forget the noise =
from the=20
momentum<BR>buyers-turned-sellers. They were cleaned out with the =
huge=20
volume<BR>sales, so now it's time to build or add to your =
positions to get=20
to<BR>a $25 cost basis. I still think we can hold on for a $50 =
value=20
at<BR>the end of 2004 on $2 per share earnings in=20
2004.<BR></EM><BR><EM>Let's lower the buy under for HITK to=20
$25.</EM></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><FONT face=3DArial=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><FONT face=3DArial=20
=
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE=
></BODY></HTML>
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