Re: [CANSLIM] HITK

From: Fanus <fanus13@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2003 10:19:27 -0700 (PDT)
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I haven't look at the CANSLIM characteristics, but
risk/reward look pretty good to me.

If one trade it as a bounce off the 200DMA, then your
stop can be just below it.  Say around 23.00.  You
could have entered around 25.30 this morning, risking
2.30.  If I was trading it, I would expect it to
possibly stall at resistance around 35 to 40 which
would be my profit target.  A profit target of about
9.7 to 14.7.  Risking 2.3 to get 9.7 is a risk/reward
ratio of 1/4.2.   Risking 1 dollar to make 4.2. Good
enough for me. 

You mentioned that you bought HITK at 5/30/03 at
34.20. From my side,  I do not see significant support
close by, or a logical place to put a stop loss other
than the 50DMA which were at 30.74 on that date.  A
risk of 3.46.  You sold on 6/5 at 37.47; a profit of
3.27. So you risk 3.46 to make 3.27, a risk/reward
ratio of 1/0.95.  Risking 1 dollar to make 0.95.  

In my books, an entry now is much less risky than your
entry on 5/30.

Regards
- - Fanus


- --- DMC197807 <dmc197807@comcast.net> wrote:
> MessageGene,
> 
> I understood that.  However, I think it's
> hard/dangerous to trade consistently (and safely)
> from signals generated by newsletters and stock
> pickers, or black boxes or discussion threads.  I
> assume you are out of HITK at this point?
> 
> My comments were and are limited to trying to grasp
> the total risk-reward on the name as indicated by
> the chart.  Still too risky for me, maybe not for
> others.  When the charts come into alignment, then
> money is made more easily, although not without
> risk.
> 
> I took $3+ out of HITK at the end of May by
> following my discipline (bot 5/30 at 34.20, sold 6/5
> at 37.47), and it was this experience which caught
> my attention with your post.
> 
> HITK may close this week higher or lower, and at
> that point it may still not be a good speculation,
> for my money.
> 
> Good luck,
> 
> DMC
> 
> 
>   ----- Original Message ----- 
>   From: Gene Ricci 
>   To: canslim@lists.xmission.com 
>   Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 9:32 AM
>   Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
> 
> 
>   DMC, if you'll go back to my original email you'll
> see that I was making an observation ... and passing
> it on to potential holders of HITK .... based on a
> buy signal from ChangeWave.
> 
>   'If you still own HITK there may be a light in the
> tunnel.' 
> 
>   In the meantime I made 75 cents/share trading it
> this morning (going long)... after the opening
> pullback...
> 
>   Gene
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>   ----- Original Message ----- 
>     From: DMC197807 
>     To: canslim@lists.xmission.com 
>     Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 11:01 AM
>     Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
> 
> 
>     Gene,
> 
>     Two thoughts come to mind.  First is a ski area
> I frequent.  Just below the highest lift are some
> cliffs which are out of bounds by regulation and
> also by dint of pure reason:  they look like
> suicide.  However, on any thick powder day there are
> a number of youth with their snowboards and skis
> doing the "extreme thing."  For some reason only 2
> people have gotten killed there in my memory, and a
> few bad accidents, but mostly these yahoos make it
> through.  It doesn't mean it isn't an absurd risk to
> take, but there you are.
> 
>     Is HITK still a falling knife, or is it safe to
> buy?  
> 
>     Second is: what is volume during normal trading
> and what is volume during a selloff?  Clearly HITK
> is in a selloff, so I like to look at something like
> 10 day volume (or volume since the plunge) rather
> than 60-day volume.   Here the 60-day volume is
> 583,000, but the most recent 8 days have coughed up
> about 10 million shares, or 1.25 million per day.  I
> was looking at HITK early today and was surprised
> that the first hour, amateur hour, didn't produce
> more volume.  It's now 2.5 hours into the trading
> day and it's still at 330,000 shares.
> 
>     I think today is simply a pause on the way down.
>  I have no money in this name now and only look at
> it to determine when, on a trading basis, the reward
> might outweigh the risk.  That event might not
> happen for several weeks and might take place at a
> higher price than today's (in fact, could easily do
> so).
> 
>     Mostly I think of this endeavor as the opposite
> of even recreational skiing.  We want to find the
> easiest, most risk free way of having fun (making
> $$), not the adrenaline rushed version.  If this
> were a ski slope, my scans would be scouting for not
> black diamond slopes or blue slopes.  Unlike skiing,
> here I'm on the hunt for easy green slopes and even
> yellow bunny hop slopes.
> 
>     Good luck,
> 
>     DMC
>       ----- Original Message ----- 
>       From: Gene Ricci 
>       To: canslim@lists.xmission.com 
>       Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 7:35 AM
>       Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
> 
> 
>       The power of the newsletter assumes control...
> up 6% and 1/3 of the daily volume already.
> 
>       Gene
>         ----- Original Message ----- 
>         From: DMC197807 
>         To: canslim@lists.xmission.com 
>         Sent: Saturday, July 26, 2003 10:35 PM
>         Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
> 
> 
>         Technically your risk/reward on this name
> would be skewed toward risk at this point.  The
> chart shows no stopping yet, volume is still high
> and the daily patterns are bearish.  The price
> dropped right through the 200 day EMA (25.85), is
> below any support on the daily (there looks like
> some support at $20 on the weekly).  If $20 holds,
> who's interested in buying for a quick off the bat
> 20% loss?
> 
>         I don't actually see why $20 should hold for
> more than a pause, anyway.  To me there's no sense
> in looking for "bad news," it's all in the chart
> right now.
> 
>         JMHO, 
> 
>         DMC
> 
> 
> 
>           ----- Original Message ----- 
>           From: Gene Ricci 
>           To: canslim@lists.xmission.com 
>           Sent: Saturday, July 26, 2003 6:30 PM
>           Subject: [CANSLIM] HITK
> 
> 
>           If you still own HITK there may be a light
> in the tunnel. Change Wave (Tobin Smith) sent an
> alert to his 300,000 (?) subscribers to buy HITK on
> 7/25. Looking at the chart shows that the price
> dropped down and stabilized at its 200-day moving
> average at $23.14 before bouncing higher. It closed
> at $24.88 on 7/25. Other than a possible shortfall 
> because of seasonal cough medicine sales I couldn't
> find any other bad news. Anyone know of any other
> issues?
> 
>           Thanks,
>           Gene
> 
>           I was forwarded the following;
> 
>           A price under $25 is a great entry point
> for this dual
>           generic/diabetes play -- forget the noise
> from the momentum
>           buyers-turned-sellers. They were cleaned
> out with the huge volume
>           sales, so now it's time to build or add to
> your positions to get to
>           a $25 cost basis. I still think we can
> hold on for a $50 value at
>           the end of 2004 on $2 per share earnings
> in 2004.
> 
>           Let's lower the buy under for HITK to $25.
> 
> 
> 


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