Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "DMC197807" <dmc197807@comcast.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2003 09:48:14 -0700
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MessageGene,
I understood that. However, I think it's hard/dangerous to trade =
consistently (and safely) from signals generated by newsletters and =
stock pickers, or black boxes or discussion threads. I assume you are =
out of HITK at this point?
My comments were and are limited to trying to grasp the total =
risk-reward on the name as indicated by the chart. Still too risky for =
me, maybe not for others. When the charts come into alignment, then =
money is made more easily, although not without risk.
I took $3+ out of HITK at the end of May by following my discipline (bot =
5/30 at 34.20, sold 6/5 at 37.47), and it was this experience which =
caught my attention with your post.
HITK may close this week higher or lower, and at that point it may still =
not be a good speculation, for my money.
Good luck,
DMC
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Gene Ricci=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 9:32 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
DMC, if you'll go back to my original email you'll see that I was =
making an observation ... and passing it on to potential holders of HITK =
.... based on a buy signal from ChangeWave.
'If you still own HITK there may be a light in the tunnel.'=20
In the meantime I made 75 cents/share trading it this morning (going =
long)... after the opening pullback...
Gene
----- Original Message -----=20
From: DMC197807=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 11:01 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
Gene,
Two thoughts come to mind. First is a ski area I frequent. Just =
below the highest lift are some cliffs which are out of bounds by =
regulation and also by dint of pure reason: they look like suicide. =
However, on any thick powder day there are a number of youth with their =
snowboards and skis doing the "extreme thing." For some reason only 2 =
people have gotten killed there in my memory, and a few bad accidents, =
but mostly these yahoos make it through. It doesn't mean it isn't an =
absurd risk to take, but there you are.
Is HITK still a falling knife, or is it safe to buy? =20
Second is: what is volume during normal trading and what is volume =
during a selloff? Clearly HITK is in a selloff, so I like to look at =
something like 10 day volume (or volume since the plunge) rather than =
60-day volume. Here the 60-day volume is 583,000, but the most recent =
8 days have coughed up about 10 million shares, or 1.25 million per day. =
I was looking at HITK early today and was surprised that the first =
hour, amateur hour, didn't produce more volume. It's now 2.5 hours into =
the trading day and it's still at 330,000 shares.
I think today is simply a pause on the way down. I have no money in =
this name now and only look at it to determine when, on a trading basis, =
the reward might outweigh the risk. That event might not happen for =
several weeks and might take place at a higher price than today's (in =
fact, could easily do so).
Mostly I think of this endeavor as the opposite of even recreational =
skiing. We want to find the easiest, most risk free way of having fun =
(making $$), not the adrenaline rushed version. If this were a ski =
slope, my scans would be scouting for not black diamond slopes or blue =
slopes. Unlike skiing, here I'm on the hunt for easy green slopes and =
even yellow bunny hop slopes.
Good luck,
DMC
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Gene Ricci=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 7:35 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
The power of the newsletter assumes control... up 6% and 1/3 of =
the daily volume already.
Gene
----- Original Message -----=20
From: DMC197807=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, July 26, 2003 10:35 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
Technically your risk/reward on this name would be skewed toward =
risk at this point. The chart shows no stopping yet, volume is still =
high and the daily patterns are bearish. The price dropped right =
through the 200 day EMA (25.85), is below any support on the daily =
(there looks like some support at $20 on the weekly). If $20 holds, =
who's interested in buying for a quick off the bat 20% loss?
I don't actually see why $20 should hold for more than a pause, =
anyway. To me there's no sense in looking for "bad news," it's all in =
the chart right now.
JMHO,=20
DMC
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Gene Ricci=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, July 26, 2003 6:30 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] HITK
If you still own HITK there may be a light in the tunnel. =
Change Wave (Tobin Smith) sent an alert to his 300,000 (?) subscribers =
to buy HITK on 7/25. Looking at the chart shows that the price dropped =
down and stabilized at its 200-day moving average at $23.14 before =
bouncing higher. It closed at $24.88 on 7/25. Other than a possible =
shortfall because of seasonal cough medicine sales I couldn't find any =
other bad news. Anyone know of any other issues?
Thanks,
Gene
I was forwarded the following;
A price under $25 is a great entry point for this dual
generic/diabetes play -- forget the noise from the momentum
buyers-turned-sellers. They were cleaned out with the huge =
volume
sales, so now it's time to build or add to your positions to =
get to
a $25 cost basis. I still think we can hold on for a $50 value =
at
the end of 2004 on $2 per share earnings in 2004.
Let's lower the buy under for HITK to $25.
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Gene,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I understood that. However, I =
think it's=20
hard/dangerous to trade consistently (and safely) from signals generated =
by=20
newsletters and stock pickers, or black boxes or discussion =
threads. I=20
assume you are out of HITK at this point?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>My comments were and are limited to =
trying to grasp=20
the total risk-reward on the name as indicated by the chart. Still =
too=20
risky for me, maybe not for others. When the charts come into =
alignment,=20
then money is made more easily, although not without risk.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I took $3+ out of HITK at the end of =
May by=20
following my discipline (bot 5/30 at 34.20, sold 6/5 at 37.47), and it =
was this=20
experience which caught my attention with your post.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>HITK may close this week higher or =
lower, and at=20
that point it may still not be a good speculation, for my =
money.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Good luck,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DMC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dgenr@swbell.net href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net">Gene =
Ricci</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, July 28, 2003 =
9:32 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
HITK</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">DMC, if you'll go back to my =
original email=20
you'll see that I was making an observation ... and passing it on to =
potential=20
holders of HITK .... <FONT size=3D4>based on a buy signal from=20
ChangeWave.</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"><STRONG><FONT=20
color=3D#0000ff></FONT></STRONG></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"><STRONG><FONT=20
color=3D#0000ff>'</FONT></STRONG><SPAN =
class=3D670474503-26072003><FONT=20
face=3D"Comic Sans MS"><FONT size=3D4><STRONG><FONT color=3D#0000ff>If =
you still own=20
HITK <U>there may be a light</U> in the tunnel.'</FONT></STRONG>=20
</FONT></FONT></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff size=3D4><SPAN=20
class=3D670474503-26072003><STRONG></STRONG></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D4><SPAN =
class=3D670474503-26072003>In the=20
meantime I made 75 cents/share trading it this morning (going long)... =
after=20
the opening pullback...</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D4><SPAN=20
class=3D670474503-26072003></SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" =
size=3D4><SPAN=20
class=3D670474503-26072003></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D4><SPAN=20
class=3D670474503-26072003></SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" =
size=3D4><SPAN=20
class=3D670474503-26072003>Gene</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff size=3D4><SPAN=20
class=3D670474503-26072003><STRONG></STRONG></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff size=3D4><SPAN=20
class=3D670474503-26072003></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff size=3D4><SPAN=20
class=3D670474503-26072003><STRONG></STRONG></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff size=3D4><SPAN=20
class=3D670474503-26072003><STRONG></STRONG></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"><SPAN=20
class=3D670474503-26072003></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"><SPAN=20
class=3D670474503-26072003></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"><SPAN=20
class=3D670474503-26072003></SPAN></FONT>----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddmc197807@comcast.net=20
href=3D"mailto:dmc197807@comcast.net">DMC197807</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, July 28, 2003 =
11:01=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
HITK</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Gene,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Two thoughts come to mind. =
First is a ski=20
area I frequent. Just below the highest lift are some cliffs =
which are=20
out of bounds by regulation and also by dint of pure reason: =
they look=20
like suicide. However, on any thick powder day there are a =
number of=20
youth with their snowboards and skis doing the "extreme =
thing." For=20
some reason only 2 people have gotten killed there in my memory, and =
a few=20
bad accidents, but mostly these yahoos make it through. It =
doesn't=20
mean it isn't an absurd risk to take, but there you =
are.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Is HITK still a falling knife, or =
is it safe to=20
buy? </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Second is: what is volume during =
normal trading=20
and what is volume during a selloff? Clearly HITK is in a =
selloff, so=20
I like to look at something like 10 day volume (or volume since the =
plunge)=20
rather than 60-day volume. Here the 60-day volume is =
583,000,=20
but the most recent 8 days have coughed up about 10 million shares, =
or 1.25=20
million per day. I was looking at HITK early today and was =
surprised=20
that the first hour, amateur hour, didn't produce more volume. =
It's=20
now 2.5 hours into the trading day and it's still at 330,000=20
shares.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I think today is simply a pause on =
the way=20
down. I have no money in this name now and only look at it to=20
determine when, on a trading basis, the reward might outweigh the=20
risk. That event might not happen for several weeks and might =
take=20
place at a higher price than today's (in fact, could easily do=20
so).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Mostly I think of this endeavor as =
the opposite=20
of even recreational skiing. We want to find the easiest, most =
risk=20
free way of having fun (making $$), not the adrenaline rushed =
version. =20
If this were a ski slope, my scans would be scouting for not black =
diamond=20
slopes or blue slopes. Unlike skiing, here I'm on the =
hunt for=20
easy green slopes and even yellow bunny hop slopes.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Good luck,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DMC</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dgenr@swbell.net href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net">Gene =
Ricci</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, July 28, 2003 =
7:35=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
HITK</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">The power of the newsletter =
assumes=20
control... up 6% and 1/3 of the daily volume already.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Gene</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddmc197807@comcast.net=20
href=3D"mailto:dmc197807@comcast.net">DMC197807</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, July 26, =
2003 10:35=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
HITK</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Technically your risk/reward on =
this name=20
would be skewed toward risk at this point. The chart shows =
no=20
stopping yet, volume is still high and the daily patterns are=20
bearish. The price dropped right through the 200 day EMA =
(25.85),=20
is below any support on the daily (there looks like some support =
at $20=20
on the weekly). If $20 holds, who's interested in buying =
for a=20
quick off the bat 20% loss?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I don't actually see why $20 =
should hold=20
for more than a pause, anyway. To me there's no sense in =
looking=20
for "bad news," it's all in the chart right now.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>JMHO, </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DMC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dgenr@swbell.net =
href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net">Gene Ricci</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, July =
26, 2003=20
6:30 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
HITK</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans =
MS"><FONT=20
size=3D4>If you still own HITK there may be a light in the =
tunnel.=20
Change Wave (Tobin Smith) sent an alert to his =
300,000 (?)=20
subscribers to buy HITK on 7/25. <SPAN=20
class=3D670474503-26072003>Looking at the chart shows =
that the=20
price dropped down and stabilized at its 200-day moving =
average=20
at $23.14 before bouncing higher. It closed at $24.88 on =
7/25.=20
Other than a possible shortfall because of seasonal =
cough=20
medicine sales I couldn't find any other bad news. Anyone know =
of any=20
other issues?</SPAN></FONT></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><SPAN=20
class=3D670474503-26072003><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"=20
size=3D4></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><SPAN=20
class=3D670474503-26072003><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"=20
size=3D4>Thanks,</FONT></SPAN></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><SPAN=20
class=3D670474503-26072003><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"=20
size=3D4>Gene</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans =
MS"=20
size=3D4></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D4>I was forwarded the =
following;</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><FONT face=3DArial=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><EM>A price under $25 is =
a great=20
entry point for this dual<BR>generic/diabetes play -- forget =
the noise=20
from the momentum<BR>buyers-turned-sellers. They were cleaned =
out with=20
the huge volume<BR>sales, so now it's time to build or add to =
your=20
positions to get to<BR>a $25 cost basis. I still think we can =
hold on=20
for a $50 value at<BR>the end of 2004 on $2 per share earnings =
in=20
2004.<BR></EM><BR><EM>Let's lower the buy under for HITK to=20
$25.</EM></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><FONT face=3DArial=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670474503-26072003><FONT face=3DArial=20
=
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE=
></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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