Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "DMC197807" <dmc197807@comcast.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2003 10:35:01 -0700
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MessagePete,
I'm always curious when someone mentions a pivot point. Where is the =
pivot point you are referring to?
Good risk/reward will depend on your time frame. The volatility is in =
this stock now and it could easily swing 6-10% on any given day in =
either direction. It's ATR is now a whopping 3.23, or 12% of the =
current stock price. Let's discount that by a third just because of the =
recent plunge and you still have an ATR at 8% of the stock's price.
So if you want to trade it intraday and you can buy low and sell high, =
it can be attractive. If you're on the wrong side of the swing, though, =
it can be painful. What's interesting about the chart to me is you look =
at a weekly and there appears to be support just below $20, but you look =
at the daily and it's not there.
As to volume, Gene thought volume was high and you think it's drying up. =
Who's right? I dunno, my guess is you are, but I think you're drawing =
the wrong conclusion from the volume. The stock is trying to rally =
above the 200 ema today on falling volume; I think that's bearish short =
term for this stock. If it were rallying hard on a volume spike that =
would mean people were queueing up to buy the stock. I don't think =
that's happening. I think a downward trend with falling volume =
indicates more potential downside.
I'm looking to buy it when it has little chance of falling further and =
very good chances of rising higher. Here I think the risk reward is 3-1 =
it goes down below 20, 5-1 it goes back to support at 15; 5-1 it rises =
from here to 31 and climbs, and 15-1 it rises above 36.
JMHO,
DMC
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Pete=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 9:31 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
Obviously, the chart looks bad. However it does appear it could =
bounce of the previous pivot point. With todays's gap and down volume =
drying up so my question would be how to set up a good risk/reward =
ratio.=20
I'm having a hard time finding fundies on this but at first glance it =
looks they are having a little deceleration in earning/revenue with =
little analyst coverage, could check funds on morningstar.com. Not sure =
of competition.
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Pete,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I'm always curious when someone =
mentions a pivot=20
point. Where is the pivot point you are referring to?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Good risk/reward will depend on your =
time=20
frame. The volatility is in this stock now and it could easily =
swing 6-10%=20
on any given day in either direction. It's ATR is now a whopping =
3.23, or=20
12% of the current stock price. Let's discount that by a third =
just=20
because of the recent plunge and you still have an ATR at 8% of the =
stock's=20
price.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>So if you want to trade it intraday and =
you can buy=20
low and sell high, it can be attractive. If you're on the wrong =
side of=20
the swing, though, it can be painful. What's interesting about the =
chart=20
to me is you look at a weekly and there appears to be support just below =
$20,=20
but you look at the daily and it's not there.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>As to volume, Gene thought volume was =
high and you=20
think it's drying up. Who's right? I dunno, my guess is you =
are, but=20
I think you're drawing the wrong conclusion from the volume. The =
stock is=20
trying to rally above the 200 ema today on falling volume; I think =
that's=20
bearish short term for this stock. If it were rallying hard on a =
volume=20
spike that would mean people were queueing up to buy the stock. I =
don't=20
think that's happening. I think a downward trend with falling =
volume=20
indicates more potential downside.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I'm looking to buy it when it has =
little chance of=20
falling further and very good chances of rising higher. Here I =
think the=20
risk reward is 3-1 it goes down below 20, 5-1 it goes back to support at =
15; 5-1=20
it rises from here to 31 and climbs, and 15-1 it rises above =
36.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>JMHO,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DMC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dpeten123@nc.rr.com =
href=3D"mailto:peten123@nc.rr.com">Pete</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, July 28, 2003 =
9:31 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
HITK</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Obviously, the chart looks bad. =
However it=20
does appear it could bounce of the previous pivot point. With =
todays's=20
gap and down volume drying up so my question would be how to set up a =
good=20
risk/reward ratio. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I'm having a hard time finding =
fundies on this=20
but at first glance it looks they are having a little deceleration in=20
earning/revenue with little analyst coverage, could check funds on=20
morningstar.com. Not sure of competition.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"><FONT=20
face=3DArial =
size=3D2></FONT> </BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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