Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "DMC197807" <dmc197807@comcast.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK--Volume Studies
Date: Wed, 6 Aug 2003 10:14:22 -0700
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Gene,
I'm not sure what you mean. Are you asking for a canslim long =
recommendation, or asking for charts to use in following HITK?
For HITK this daily chart from stockcharts should do the job:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3DHITK,uu[h,a]dbclyiay[pb10!b=
50!b200!i!f][vc60][iut!Lp14,3,3!Lb14!Lg!Lc9!Lf15]&pref=3DG
For a shorter time period here is the 60 minute chart, but I don't think =
it's very educational:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3DHITK,uu[h,a]ebclyiay[pb10!b=
50!b200!i!f][vc60][iut!Lp14,3,3!Lb14!Lg!Lc9!Lf15]&pref=3DG
Much better is the weekly where you can see the support line at 19.97, =
then a pause at 15, more support at 10 and then real congestion at 6 to =
9:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3DHITK,uu[h,a]ebclyiay[pb10!b=
50!b200!i!f][vc60][iut!Lp14,3,3!Lb14!Lg!Lc9!Lf15]&pref=3DG
As for recommendations, as I have noted a few times, the M is telling us =
to back off any real bets at this point. On CANSLI (minus the M) =
criteria, OMI and AVID look like good stocks, but I'm not interested in =
owning them in this market. There are probably 10 others I could name, =
but that's not of much interest to me at this time.
DMC
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Gene Ricci=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, August 06, 2003 9:35 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK--Volume Studies
DMC, how about you point us to a chart that passes your criteria?
Gene
----- Original Message -----=20
From: DMC197807=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, August 06, 2003 10:10 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK--Volume Studies
One problem with threads and email lists is the topics tend to lack
follow-through. The newest hot topic or stock du jour takes over =
the
airspace and previous topics disappear. Perhaps they should, but I =
think
the HITK education is out there for people who want to take the time =
to
understand why this stock which gapped and crapped was an unlikely =
delight
at $25, $26 or "under $25". One problem with getting your list of =
MILSCANs
and IBD 100 stocks is you tend to love them long after their =
usefulness has
evaporated (or long before they become useful again).
First off, if you can part with some pi$tole$, may I suggest buying =
Donald
Cassidy's Trading with Volume. As you can see from the reviews, =
some people
think it's great, some think it doesn't tell you anything new. I =
think for
$25 and a few hours of dedicated reading it's pretty good insurance =
against
buying an exhaustion gap or jumping in to buy HITK as it's =
crumbling. If it
saves you one bad trade (guaranteed to save you more, but . . .) =
then it's
worth about 10 times the purchase price. It's generally not =
available in
libraries:
=
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0071376046/qid=3D1060182177=
/sr=3D1
=
- -1/ref=3Dsr_1_1/102-9779625-0378563?v=3Dglance&s=3Dbooks#product-details
Those who trade on price alone are like people who fly airplanes on
visibility alone. Or maybe trying to trade on price action alone is =
like
trying to speak a foreign language with nothing but tons of =
vocabulary--no
grammar, no semantic rules, no idioms, just a lot of words. If =
you've ever
encountered a newly arrived foreign student in the hard sciences you =
get the
drift. Volume is a key and crucial instrument. It's really too bad =
we can
trade volume as well as price (that is, buy options on volume =
levels, rather
than just price levels), but there's probably no efficient way to do =
it.
Otoh, using volume to understand price is key.
Another useful thing is just to scroll down this note, starting at =
the
bottom and noting the dates. If you have a dual screen setup, you =
might put
the daily or 60 minute chart of HITK up against it, and try to see =
what was
going on at what point in the conversation.
HITK is continuing its short, squat candlestick march on low volume, =
down
below $23 as I type. How long will the bleeding last? Who knows, =
but at
this angle and with this momentum (volume) it can be excruciating. =
How will
it end? Impossible to say, but a likely scenario will be the =
wholesale
dumping of shares if $20 doesn't hold. I don't see it holding. I =
think it
could collapse tomorrow or the next day, then we might have an =
"echo" of the
plunge from $40 to $25, with a little boost up to 28 (and all the =
bullish
chatter) before it finds its proper bottom. Check now the widening =
of the
Bollinger bands on the bottom side, giving this thing plenty of =
space to
run.
So, let's take another look around 8/15 to see if it has fallen =
through 20
to 15 and bounced. Looking out longer term, on the weekly chart, =
you can
see some support at $10 and what looks like rock bottom =
fisher/vulture
carcass at around $7-8. So, short term support at $20, $15; medium =
term
support at $10 and an "event" or crushingly bad market could take us =
to $7.
DMC
----- Original Message -----
From: "DMC197807" <dmc197807@comcast.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Monday, August 04, 2003 8:56 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
> Perhaps members of the group will find it educational to follow =
HITK for a
> little while longer. Nobody has a crystal ball on these things, =
but
> experience has taught me the hard way that not paying attention to =
price
> action and volume can be costly.
>
> As I opined earlier, this chart pattern is a very familiar, broken =
stock
> picture. Volume keeps fading away as buyers back away from this =
name and
> holders are just beginning to get the picture that the bleeding =
has only
> begun, and hasn't begun to stop yet. We've now crossed up above =
the 200
dma
> very weakly and fallen back down through it. I'd expect this =
stock to
stay
> below the 200 dma for a significant amount of time from now on, =
long after
> all the averages complete their southerly curves. Since there are =
few
> buyers it won't take many sellers to show up, dump their shares =
and get
out.
> That accounts for the small but steady march south. The Bollinger =
Bands
> have now widened significantly; when a stock is rallying it can =
climb
along
> the upper band for a long time; the same happens on the bottom =
band when
> it's falling. The bottom band is pointed directly toward $15 =
right now; I
> see no reason why, given enough time this summer, it won't achieve =
and
then
> overshoot that number. If HITK had options, I'd be buying puts =
here. If
I
> was an HITK owner, I'd get out at any price right now.
>
> DMC
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "DMC197807" <dmc197807@comcast.net>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 11:05 AM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
>
>
> > Fanus,
> >
> > Thanks for your note. Each of us has his own system. Back in =
May I
> traded
> > HITK off the center of the Bollinger bands for a bounce which I =
got and
I
> > was monitoring it off shorter time frame charts. The mistake I =
made was
> not
> > holding on for the ride further up, but I was leaving for 10 =
days on the
> > East Coast and couldn't afford to keep the position open, so I =
left with
> > 9.3% gain in 7 days. If I can annualize that gain it's better =
than 300%
> per
> > year, so I like it. I kept a tight stop on the position so =
maybe your
> > calculation of the risk wasn't mine.
> >
> > Everyone looks at risk and reward differently. You may see a =
stock
which
> > can rise up to 35 or 40 fairly easily (the reward) but I see a =
broken
> chart
> > and the likelihood of that happening as very, very slim. More =
likely,
> given
> > the pattern, is for the stock to pause and hiccup and continue =
to break
> > down. Or it could stabilize and idle here at the $22-28 range =
for a
> while.
> > However, there have been a lot of buyers on the way up to $49 =
and not
all
> of
> > them have sold. It often takes several days for the totality of =
a drop
> from
> > 49 to 25 to sink in. A lot of people hope it will recover, a =
lot try to
> > trade out, but in the end the weight of the chart often produces =
the
> > inevitable.
> >
> > Another way to look at your calculation is to try to figure out =
the
> > probabilities within a given time frame (let's take 2 weeks, or =
10
trading
> > days) of your two speculation scenarios to play out: 1) drops =
to 23?
> this
> > is highly likely, imho, given the ATR where it is, call it 2-1; =
or 2)
> rises
> > to 35 or 40? this is a 40-1 shot, to me, in this time period, =
or worse.
> So
> > you calculate the value of the two and, with the stock where it =
is now,
> > 26.50, you have a 50% chance of losing $3.50, or -1.75, and a =
2.5%
chance
> of
> > it rising to 35, or $0.87, so I wouldn't take your approach, not =
even
with
> > your money.
> >
> > What is the better approach? Patience, let the plunge work =
through its
> > natural progression.
> >
> > This is what makes a market, though. Regards,
> >
> > DMC
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Fanus" <fanus13@yahoo.com>
> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 10:19 AM
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
> >
> >
> > > I haven't look at the CANSLIM characteristics, but
> > > risk/reward look pretty good to me.
> > >
> > > If one trade it as a bounce off the 200DMA, then your
> > > stop can be just below it. Say around 23.00. You
> > > could have entered around 25.30 this morning, risking
> > > 2.30. If I was trading it, I would expect it to
> > > possibly stall at resistance around 35 to 40 which
> > > would be my profit target. A profit target of about
> > > 9.7 to 14.7. Risking 2.3 to get 9.7 is a risk/reward
> > > ratio of 1/4.2. Risking 1 dollar to make 4.2. Good
> > > enough for me.
> > >
> > > You mentioned that you bought HITK at 5/30/03 at
> > > 34.20. From my side, I do not see significant support
> > > close by, or a logical place to put a stop loss other
> > > than the 50DMA which were at 30.74 on that date. A
> > > risk of 3.46. You sold on 6/5 at 37.47; a profit of
> > > 3.27. So you risk 3.46 to make 3.27, a risk/reward
> > > ratio of 1/0.95. Risking 1 dollar to make 0.95.
> > >
> > > In my books, an entry now is much less risky than your
> > > entry on 5/30.
> > >
> > > Regards
> > > - Fanus
> > >
> > >
> > > --- DMC197807 <dmc197807@comcast.net> wrote:
> > > > MessageGene,
> > > >
> > > > I understood that. However, I think it's
> > > > hard/dangerous to trade consistently (and safely)
> > > > from signals generated by newsletters and stock
> > > > pickers, or black boxes or discussion threads. I
> > > > assume you are out of HITK at this point?
> > > >
> > > > My comments were and are limited to trying to grasp
> > > > the total risk-reward on the name as indicated by
> > > > the chart. Still too risky for me, maybe not for
> > > > others. When the charts come into alignment, then
> > > > money is made more easily, although not without
> > > > risk.
> > > >
> > > > I took $3+ out of HITK at the end of May by
> > > > following my discipline (bot 5/30 at 34.20, sold 6/5
> > > > at 37.47), and it was this experience which caught
> > > > my attention with your post.
> > > >
> > > > HITK may close this week higher or lower, and at
> > > > that point it may still not be a good speculation,
> > > > for my money.
> > > >
> > > > Good luck,
> > > >
> > > > DMC
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: Gene Ricci
> > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > > Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 9:32 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > DMC, if you'll go back to my original email you'll
> > > > see that I was making an observation ... and passing
> > > > it on to potential holders of HITK .... based on a
> > > > buy signal from ChangeWave.
> > > >
> > > > 'If you still own HITK there may be a light in the
> > > > tunnel.'
> > > >
> > > > In the meantime I made 75 cents/share trading it
> > > > this morning (going long)... after the opening
> > > > pullback...
> > > >
> > > > Gene
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: DMC197807
> > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > > Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 11:01 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Gene,
> > > >
> > > > Two thoughts come to mind. First is a ski area
> > > > I frequent. Just below the highest lift are some
> > > > cliffs which are out of bounds by regulation and
> > > > also by dint of pure reason: they look like
> > > > suicide. However, on any thick powder day there are
> > > > a number of youth with their snowboards and skis
> > > > doing the "extreme thing." For some reason only 2
> > > > people have gotten killed there in my memory, and a
> > > > few bad accidents, but mostly these yahoos make it
> > > > through. It doesn't mean it isn't an absurd risk to
> > > > take, but there you are.
> > > >
> > > > Is HITK still a falling knife, or is it safe to
> > > > buy?
> > > >
> > > > Second is: what is volume during normal trading
> > > > and what is volume during a selloff? Clearly HITK
> > > > is in a selloff, so I like to look at something like
> > > > 10 day volume (or volume since the plunge) rather
> > > > than 60-day volume. Here the 60-day volume is
> > > > 583,000, but the most recent 8 days have coughed up
> > > > about 10 million shares, or 1.25 million per day. I
> > > > was looking at HITK early today and was surprised
> > > > that the first hour, amateur hour, didn't produce
> > > > more volume. It's now 2.5 hours into the trading
> > > > day and it's still at 330,000 shares.
> > > >
> > > > I think today is simply a pause on the way down.
> > > > I have no money in this name now and only look at
> > > > it to determine when, on a trading basis, the reward
> > > > might outweigh the risk. That event might not
> > > > happen for several weeks and might take place at a
> > > > higher price than today's (in fact, could easily do
> > > > so).
> > > >
> > > > Mostly I think of this endeavor as the opposite
> > > > of even recreational skiing. We want to find the
> > > > easiest, most risk free way of having fun (making
> > > > $$), not the adrenaline rushed version. If this
> > > > were a ski slope, my scans would be scouting for not
> > > > black diamond slopes or blue slopes. Unlike skiing,
> > > > here I'm on the hunt for easy green slopes and even
> > > > yellow bunny hop slopes.
> > > >
> > > > Good luck,
> > > >
> > > > DMC
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: Gene Ricci
> > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > > Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 7:35 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > The power of the newsletter assumes control...
> > > > up 6% and 1/3 of the daily volume already.
> > > >
> > > > Gene
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: DMC197807
> > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > > Sent: Saturday, July 26, 2003 10:35 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Technically your risk/reward on this name
> > > > would be skewed toward risk at this point. The
> > > > chart shows no stopping yet, volume is still high
> > > > and the daily patterns are bearish. The price
> > > > dropped right through the 200 day EMA (25.85), is
> > > > below any support on the daily (there looks like
> > > > some support at $20 on the weekly). If $20 holds,
> > > > who's interested in buying for a quick off the bat
> > > > 20% loss?
> > > >
> > > > I don't actually see why $20 should hold for
> > > > more than a pause, anyway. To me there's no sense
> > > > in looking for "bad news," it's all in the chart
> > > > right now.
> > > >
> > > > JMHO,
> > > >
> > > > DMC
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: Gene Ricci
> > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > > Sent: Saturday, July 26, 2003 6:30 PM
> > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] HITK
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > If you still own HITK there may be a light
> > > > in the tunnel. Change Wave (Tobin Smith) sent an
> > > > alert to his 300,000 (?) subscribers to buy HITK on
> > > > 7/25. Looking at the chart shows that the price
> > > > dropped down and stabilized at its 200-day moving
> > > > average at $23.14 before bouncing higher. It closed
> > > > at $24.88 on 7/25. Other than a possible shortfall
> > > > because of seasonal cough medicine sales I couldn't
> > > > find any other bad news. Anyone know of any other
> > > > issues?
> > > >
> > > > Thanks,
> > > > Gene
> > > >
> > > > I was forwarded the following;
> > > >
> > > > A price under $25 is a great entry point
> > > > for this dual
> > > > generic/diabetes play -- forget the noise
> > > > from the momentum
> > > > buyers-turned-sellers. They were cleaned
> > > > out with the huge volume
> > > > sales, so now it's time to build or add to
> > > > your positions to get to
> > > > a $25 cost basis. I still think we can
> > > > hold on for a $50 value at
> > > > the end of 2004 on $2 per share earnings
> > > > in 2004.
> > > >
> > > > Let's lower the buy under for HITK to $25.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > __________________________________
> > > Do you Yahoo!?
> > > Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free, easy-to-use web site design =
software
> > > http://sitebuilder.yahoo.com
> > >
> > > -
> > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
> >
> >
> > -
> > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
>
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Gene,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I'm not sure what you mean. Are =
you asking=20
for a canslim long recommendation, or asking for charts to use in =
following=20
HITK?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>For HITK this daily chart from =
stockcharts should=20
do the job:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3DHITK,uu[h,a]dbclyia=
y[pb10!b50!b200!i!f][vc60][iut!Lp14,3,3!Lb14!Lg!Lc9!Lf15]&pref=3DG">h=
ttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3DHITK,uu[h,a]dbclyiay[pb10!b5=
0!b200!i!f][vc60][iut!Lp14,3,3!Lb14!Lg!Lc9!Lf15]&pref=3DG</A></FONT><=
/DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>For a shorter time period here is the =
60 minute=20
chart, but I don't think it's very educational:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3DHITK,uu[h,a]ebclyia=
y[pb10!b50!b200!i!f][vc60][iut!Lp14,3,3!Lb14!Lg!Lc9!Lf15]&pref=3DG">h=
ttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3DHITK,uu[h,a]ebclyiay[pb10!b5=
0!b200!i!f][vc60][iut!Lp14,3,3!Lb14!Lg!Lc9!Lf15]&pref=3DG</A></FONT><=
/DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Much better is the weekly where you can =
see the=20
support line at 19.97, then a pause at 15, more support at 10 and then =
real=20
congestion at 6 to 9:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3DHITK,uu[h,a]ebclyia=
y[pb10!b50!b200!i!f][vc60][iut!Lp14,3,3!Lb14!Lg!Lc9!Lf15]&pref=3DG">h=
ttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3DHITK,uu[h,a]ebclyiay[pb10!b5=
0!b200!i!f][vc60][iut!Lp14,3,3!Lb14!Lg!Lc9!Lf15]&pref=3DG</A></FONT><=
/DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>As for recommendations, as I have noted =
a few=20
times, the M is telling us to back off any real bets at this =
point. On=20
CANSLI (minus the M) criteria, OMI and AVID look like good stocks, but =
I'm not=20
interested in owning them in this market. There are probably 10 =
others I=20
could name, but that's not of much interest to me at this =
time.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DMC</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dgenr@swbell.net href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net">Gene =
Ricci</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, August 06, =
2003 9:35=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
HITK--Volume=20
Studies</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">DMC, how about you point us to =
a chart=20
that passes your criteria?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Gene</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddmc197807@comcast.net=20
href=3D"mailto:dmc197807@comcast.net">DMC197807</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, August 06, =
2003 10:10=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
HITK--Volume=20
Studies</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>One problem with threads and email lists is the =
topics tend=20
to lack<BR>follow-through. The newest hot topic or stock du =
jour takes=20
over the<BR>airspace and previous topics disappear. Perhaps =
they=20
should, but I think<BR>the HITK education is out there for people =
who want=20
to take the time to<BR>understand why this stock which gapped and =
crapped=20
was an unlikely delight<BR>at $25, $26 or "under $25". One =
problem=20
with getting your list of MILSCANs<BR>and IBD 100 stocks is you tend =
to love=20
them long after their usefulness has<BR>evaporated (or long before =
they=20
become useful again).<BR><BR>First off, if you can part with some =
pi$tole$,=20
may I suggest buying Donald<BR>Cassidy's Trading with Volume. =
As you=20
can see from the reviews, some people<BR>think it's great, some =
think it=20
doesn't tell you anything new. I think for<BR>$25 and a =
few=20
hours of dedicated reading it's pretty good insurance =
against<BR>buying an=20
exhaustion gap or jumping in to buy HITK as it's crumbling. If =
it<BR>saves you one bad trade (guaranteed to save you more, but =
. =20
. .) then it's<BR>worth about 10 times the purchase =
price. It's=20
generally not available in<BR>libraries:<BR><BR><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0071376046/qid=3D10=
60182177/sr=3D1">http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0071376046=
/qid=3D1060182177/sr=3D1</A><BR>-1/ref=3Dsr_1_1/102-9779625-0378563?v=3Dg=
lance&s=3Dbooks#product-details<BR><BR>Those=20
who trade on price alone are like people who fly airplanes =
on<BR>visibility=20
alone. Or maybe trying to trade on price action alone is=20
like<BR>trying to speak a foreign language with nothing but tons of=20
vocabulary--no<BR>grammar, no semantic rules, no idioms, just a lot =
of=20
words. If you've ever<BR>encountered a newly arrived foreign =
student=20
in the hard sciences you get the<BR>drift. Volume is a key and =
crucial=20
instrument. It's really too bad we can<BR>trade volume as well =
as=20
price (that is, buy options on volume levels, rather<BR>than just =
price=20
levels), but there's probably no efficient way to do it.<BR>Otoh, =
using=20
volume to understand price is key.<BR><BR>Another useful thing is =
just to=20
scroll down this note, starting at the<BR>bottom and noting the =
dates. =20
If you have a dual screen setup, you might put<BR>the daily or 60 =
minute=20
chart of HITK up against it, and try to see what was<BR>going on at =
what=20
point in the conversation.<BR><BR>HITK is continuing its short, =
squat=20
candlestick march on low volume, down<BR>below $23 as I type. =
How long=20
will the bleeding last? Who knows, but at<BR>this angle and =
with this=20
momentum (volume) it can be excruciating. How will<BR>it =
end? =20
Impossible to say, but a likely scenario will be the =
wholesale<BR>dumping of=20
shares if $20 doesn't hold. I don't see it holding. I =
think=20
it<BR>could collapse tomorrow or the next day, then we might have an =
"echo"=20
of the<BR>plunge from $40 to $25, with a little boost up to 28 (and =
all the=20
bullish<BR>chatter) before it finds its proper bottom. Check =
now the=20
widening of the<BR>Bollinger bands on the bottom side, giving this =
thing=20
plenty of space to<BR>run.<BR><BR>So, let's take another look around =
8/15 to=20
see if it has fallen through 20<BR>to 15 and bounced. Looking =
out=20
longer term, on the weekly chart, you can<BR>see some support at $10 =
and=20
what looks like rock bottom fisher/vulture<BR>carcass at around =
$7-8. =20
So, short term support at $20, $15; medium term<BR>support at $10 =
and an=20
"event" or crushingly bad market could take us to=20
$7.<BR><BR>DMC<BR><BR>----- Original Message -----<BR>From: =
"DMC197807"=20
<<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:dmc197807@comcast.net">dmc197807@comcast.net</A>><BR>To=
:=20
<<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
><BR>Sent:=20
Monday, August 04, 2003 8:56 AM<BR>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]=20
HITK<BR><BR><BR>> Perhaps members of the group will find it =
educational=20
to follow HITK for a<BR>> little while longer. Nobody has a =
crystal=20
ball on these things, but<BR>> experience has taught me the hard =
way that=20
not paying attention to price<BR>> action and volume can be=20
costly.<BR>><BR>> As I opined earlier, this chart pattern is a =
very=20
familiar, broken stock<BR>> picture. Volume keeps fading =
away as=20
buyers back away from this name and<BR>> holders are just =
beginning to=20
get the picture that the bleeding has only<BR>> begun, and hasn't =
begun=20
to stop yet. We've now crossed up above the 200<BR>dma<BR>> =
very=20
weakly and fallen back down through it. I'd expect this stock=20
to<BR>stay<BR>> below the 200 dma for a significant amount of =
time from=20
now on, long after<BR>> all the averages complete their southerly =
curves. Since there are few<BR>> buyers it won't take many =
sellers=20
to show up, dump their shares and get<BR>out.<BR>> That accounts =
for the=20
small but steady march south. The Bollinger Bands<BR>> have =
now=20
widened significantly; when a stock is rallying it can=20
climb<BR>along<BR>> the upper band for a long time; the same =
happens on=20
the bottom band when<BR>> it's falling. The bottom band is =
pointed=20
directly toward $15 right now; I<BR>> see no reason why, given =
enough=20
time this summer, it won't achieve and<BR>then<BR>> overshoot =
that=20
number. If HITK had options, I'd be buying puts here. =20
If<BR>I<BR>> was an HITK owner, I'd get out at any price right=20
now.<BR>><BR>> DMC<BR>><BR>> ----- Original Message=20
-----<BR>> From: "DMC197807" <<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:dmc197807@comcast.net">dmc197807@comcast.net</A>><BR>&g=
t;=20
To: <<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
><BR>>=20
Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 11:05 AM<BR>> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]=20
HITK<BR>><BR>><BR>> > Fanus,<BR>> ><BR>> > =
Thanks=20
for your note. Each of us has his own system. Back in =
May=20
I<BR>> traded<BR>> > HITK off the center of the Bollinger =
bands for=20
a bounce which I got and<BR>I<BR>> > was monitoring it off =
shorter=20
time frame charts. The mistake I made was<BR>> not<BR>> =
>=20
holding on for the ride further up, but I was leaving for 10 days on =
the<BR>> > East Coast and couldn't afford to keep the position =
open,=20
so I left with<BR>> > 9.3% gain in 7 days. If I can =
annualize=20
that gain it's better than 300%<BR>> per<BR>> > year, so I =
like=20
it. I kept a tight stop on the position so maybe your<BR>> =
>=20
calculation of the risk wasn't mine.<BR>> ><BR>> > =
Everyone=20
looks at risk and reward differently. You may see a=20
stock<BR>which<BR>> > can rise up to 35 or 40 fairly easily =
(the=20
reward) but I see a broken<BR>> chart<BR>> > and the =
likelihood of=20
that happening as very, very slim. More likely,<BR>> =
given<BR>>=20
> the pattern, is for the stock to pause and hiccup and continue =
to=20
break<BR>> > down. Or it could stabilize and idle here =
at the=20
$22-28 range for a<BR>> while.<BR>> > However, there have =
been a=20
lot of buyers on the way up to $49 and not<BR>all<BR>> of<BR>> =
>=20
them have sold. It often takes several days for the totality =
of a=20
drop<BR>> from<BR>> > 49 to 25 to sink in. A lot of =
people=20
hope it will recover, a lot try to<BR>> > trade out, but in =
the end=20
the weight of the chart often produces the<BR>> > =
inevitable.<BR>>=20
><BR>> > Another way to look at your calculation is to try =
to=20
figure out the<BR>> > probabilities within a given time frame =
(let's=20
take 2 weeks, or 10<BR>trading<BR>> > days) of your two =
speculation=20
scenarios to play out: 1) drops to 23?<BR>> this<BR>> =
> is=20
highly likely, imho, given the ATR where it is, call it 2-1; or =
2)<BR>>=20
rises<BR>> > to 35 or 40? this is a 40-1 shot, to me, in =
this=20
time period, or worse.<BR>> So<BR>> > you calculate the =
value of=20
the two and, with the stock where it is now,<BR>> > 26.50, you =
have a=20
50% chance of losing $3.50, or -1.75, and a 2.5%<BR>chance<BR>>=20
of<BR>> > it rising to 35, or $0.87, so I wouldn't take your =
approach,=20
not even<BR>with<BR>> > your money.<BR>> ><BR>> > =
What is=20
the better approach? Patience, let the plunge work through =
its<BR>>=20
> natural progression.<BR>> ><BR>> > This is what =
makes a=20
market, though. Regards,<BR>> ><BR>> > DMC<BR>> =
><BR>> ><BR>> ><BR>> > ----- Original Message=20
-----<BR>> > From: "Fanus" <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:fanus13@yahoo.com">fanus13@yahoo.com</A>><BR>> =
> To:=20
<<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
><BR>>=20
> Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 10:19 AM<BR>> > Subject: Re:=20
[CANSLIM] HITK<BR>> ><BR>> ><BR>> > > I haven't =
look at=20
the CANSLIM characteristics, but<BR>> > > risk/reward look =
pretty=20
good to me.<BR>> > ><BR>> > > If one trade it as a =
bounce=20
off the 200DMA, then your<BR>> > > stop can be just below =
it. =20
Say around 23.00. You<BR>> > > could have entered =
around=20
25.30 this morning, risking<BR>> > > 2.30. If I was =
trading=20
it, I would expect it to<BR>> > > possibly stall at =
resistance=20
around 35 to 40 which<BR>> > > would be my profit =
target. A=20
profit target of about<BR>> > > 9.7 to 14.7. Risking =
2.3 to=20
get 9.7 is a risk/reward<BR>> > > ratio of =
1/4.2. =20
Risking 1 dollar to make 4.2. Good<BR>> > > enough for =
me.<BR>>=20
> ><BR>> > > You mentioned that you bought HITK at =
5/30/03=20
at<BR>> > > 34.20. From my side, I do not see =
significant=20
support<BR>> > > close by, or a logical place to put a stop =
loss=20
other<BR>> > > than the 50DMA which were at 30.74 on that=20
date. A<BR>> > > risk of 3.46. You sold on 6/5 =
at=20
37.47; a profit of<BR>> > > 3.27. So you risk 3.46 to make =
3.27, a=20
risk/reward<BR>> > > ratio of 1/0.95. Risking 1 =
dollar to=20
make 0.95.<BR>> > ><BR>> > > In my books, an entry =
now is=20
much less risky than your<BR>> > > entry on 5/30.<BR>> =
>=20
><BR>> > > Regards<BR>> > > - Fanus<BR>> =
>=20
><BR>> > ><BR>> > > --- DMC197807 <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:dmc197807@comcast.net">dmc197807@comcast.net</A>>=20
wrote:<BR>> > > > MessageGene,<BR>> > > =
><BR>>=20
> > > I understood that. However, I think =
it's<BR>> >=20
> > hard/dangerous to trade consistently (and safely)<BR>> =
>=20
> > from signals generated by newsletters and stock<BR>> =
> >=20
> pickers, or black boxes or discussion threads. I<BR>> =
>=20
> > assume you are out of HITK at this point?<BR>> > =
>=20
><BR>> > > > My comments were and are limited to =
trying to=20
grasp<BR>> > > > the total risk-reward on the name as =
indicated=20
by<BR>> > > > the chart. Still too risky for me, =
maybe not=20
for<BR>> > > > others. When the charts come into=20
alignment, then<BR>> > > > money is made more easily, =
although=20
not without<BR>> > > > risk.<BR>> > > =
><BR>> >=20
> > I took $3+ out of HITK at the end of May by<BR>> > =
> >=20
following my discipline (bot 5/30 at 34.20, sold 6/5<BR>> > =
> >=20
at 37.47), and it was this experience which caught<BR>> > > =
> my=20
attention with your post.<BR>> > > ><BR>> > > =
> HITK=20
may close this week higher or lower, and at<BR>> > > > =
that=20
point it may still not be a good speculation,<BR>> > > > =
for my=20
money.<BR>> > > ><BR>> > > > Good =
luck,<BR>> >=20
> ><BR>> > > > DMC<BR>> > > ><BR>> =
>=20
> ><BR>> > > > ----- Original Message=20
-----<BR>> > > > From: Gene Ricci<BR>> =
> >=20
> To: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR>>=20
> > > Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 9:32 =
AM<BR>> >=20
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK<BR>> > >=20
><BR>> > > ><BR>> > > > DMC, =
if=20
you'll go back to my original email you'll<BR>> > > > =
see that I=20
was making an observation ... and passing<BR>> > > > it =
on to=20
potential holders of HITK .... based on a<BR>> > > > buy =
signal=20
from ChangeWave.<BR>> > > ><BR>> > > =
> =20
'If you still own HITK there may be a light in the<BR>> > > =
>=20
tunnel.'<BR>> > > ><BR>> > > > =
In the=20
meantime I made 75 cents/share trading it<BR>> > > > =
this=20
morning (going long)... after the opening<BR>> > > >=20
pullback...<BR>> > > ><BR>> > > =
> =20
Gene<BR>> > > ><BR>> > > ><BR>> > > =
><BR>> > > ><BR>> > > ><BR>> > > =
><BR>> > > > ----- Original Message =
- -----<BR>>=20
> > > From: DMC197807<BR>> > =
>=20
> To: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR>>=20
> > > Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 =
11:01=20
AM<BR>> > > > Subject: Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
HITK<BR>> > > ><BR>> > > ><BR>> > > =
> Gene,<BR>> > > ><BR>> =
> >=20
> Two thoughts come to mind. First =
is a ski=20
area<BR>> > > > I frequent. Just below the highest =
lift=20
are some<BR>> > > > cliffs which are out of bounds by =
regulation=20
and<BR>> > > > also by dint of pure reason: they =
look=20
like<BR>> > > > suicide. However, on any thick =
powder day=20
there are<BR>> > > > a number of youth with their =
snowboards and=20
skis<BR>> > > > doing the "extreme thing." For =
some reason=20
only 2<BR>> > > > people have gotten killed there in my =
memory,=20
and a<BR>> > > > few bad accidents, but mostly these =
yahoos make=20
it<BR>> > > > through. It doesn't mean it isn't an =
absurd=20
risk to<BR>> > > > take, but there you are.<BR>> > =
>=20
><BR>> > > > Is HITK still a =
falling=20
knife, or is it safe to<BR>> > > > buy?<BR>> > =
>=20
><BR>> > > > Second is: what =
is=20
volume during normal trading<BR>> > > > and what is =
volume=20
during a selloff? Clearly HITK<BR>> > > > is in a =
selloff,=20
so I like to look at something like<BR>> > > > 10 day =
volume (or=20
volume since the plunge) rather<BR>> > > > than 60-day=20
volume. Here the 60-day volume is<BR>> > > > =
583,000, but the most recent 8 days have coughed up<BR>> > =
> >=20
about 10 million shares, or 1.25 million per day. I<BR>> =
> >=20
> was looking at HITK early today and was surprised<BR>> > =
>=20
> that the first hour, amateur hour, didn't produce<BR>> > =
>=20
> more volume. It's now 2.5 hours into the trading<BR>> =
>=20
> > day and it's still at 330,000 shares.<BR>> > >=20
><BR>> > > > I think today is =
simply=20
a pause on the way down.<BR>> > > > I have no =
money in=20
this name now and only look at<BR>> > > > it to =
determine when,=20
on a trading basis, the reward<BR>> > > > might outweigh =
the=20
risk. That event might not<BR>> > > > happen for =
several=20
weeks and might take place at a<BR>> > > > higher price =
than=20
today's (in fact, could easily do<BR>> > > > =
so).<BR>> >=20
> ><BR>> > > > Mostly I =
think of=20
this endeavor as the opposite<BR>> > > > of even =
recreational=20
skiing. We want to find the<BR>> > > > easiest, =
most risk=20
free way of having fun (making<BR>> > > > $$), not the=20
adrenaline rushed version. If this<BR>> > > > were =
a ski=20
slope, my scans would be scouting for not<BR>> > > > =
black=20
diamond slopes or blue slopes. Unlike skiing,<BR>> > =
> >=20
here I'm on the hunt for easy green slopes and even<BR>> > =
> >=20
yellow bunny hop slopes.<BR>> > > ><BR>> > >=20
> Good luck,<BR>> > > =
><BR>> >=20
> > DMC<BR>> > >=20
> ----- Original Message=20
-----<BR>> > > > =
From: Gene=20
Ricci<BR>> > > > To: =
<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR>>=20
> > > Sent: Monday, =
July 28,=20
2003 7:35 AM<BR>> > > =
> =20
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK<BR>> > > ><BR>> > > =
><BR>> > > > The =
power of=20
the newsletter assumes control...<BR>> > > > up 6% and =
1/3 of=20
the daily volume already.<BR>> > > ><BR>> > >=20
> Gene<BR>> > >=20
> ----- Original =
Message=20
-----<BR>> > > =
> =20
From: DMC197807<BR>> > >=20
> To: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR>>=20
> > > Sent: =
Saturday, July 26, 2003 10:35 PM<BR>> > >=20
> Subject: Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
HITK<BR>> > > ><BR>> > > ><BR>> > > =
> Technically =
your=20
risk/reward on this name<BR>> > > > would be skewed =
toward risk=20
at this point. The<BR>> > > > chart shows no =
stopping yet,=20
volume is still high<BR>> > > > and the daily patterns =
are=20
bearish. The price<BR>> > > > dropped right =
through the=20
200 day EMA (25.85), is<BR>> > > > below any support on =
the=20
daily (there looks like<BR>> > > > some support at $20 =
on the=20
weekly). If $20 holds,<BR>> > > > who's interested =
in=20
buying for a quick off the bat<BR>> > > > 20% =
loss?<BR>> >=20
> ><BR>> > >=20
> I don't =
actually see=20
why $20 should hold for<BR>> > > > more than a pause,=20
anyway. To me there's no sense<BR>> > > > in =
looking for=20
"bad news," it's all in the chart<BR>> > > > right =
now.<BR>>=20
> > ><BR>> > >=20
> JMHO,<BR>> =
> >=20
><BR>> > > =
> =20
DMC<BR>> > > ><BR>> > > ><BR>> > >=20
><BR>> > >=20
> =
- -----=20
Original Message -----<BR>> > >=20
> =
From: Gene=20
Ricci<BR>> > >=20
> To: =
<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR>>=20
> > =
> =20
Sent: Saturday, July 26, 2003 6:30 PM<BR>> > >=20
> =
Subject:=20
[CANSLIM] HITK<BR>> > > ><BR>> > > ><BR>> =
>=20
> =
> If you=20
still own HITK there may be a light<BR>> > > > in the =
tunnel.=20
Change Wave (Tobin Smith) sent an<BR>> > > > alert to =
his=20
300,000 (?) subscribers to buy HITK on<BR>> > > > 7/25. =
Looking=20
at the chart shows that the price<BR>> > > > dropped =
down and=20
stabilized at its 200-day moving<BR>> > > > average at =
$23.14=20
before bouncing higher. It closed<BR>> > > > at $24.88 =
on 7/25.=20
Other than a possible shortfall<BR>> > > > because of =
seasonal=20
cough medicine sales I couldn't<BR>> > > > find any =
other bad=20
news. Anyone know of any other<BR>> > > > =
issues?<BR>> >=20
> ><BR>> > >=20
> =20
Thanks,<BR>> > >=20
> =20
Gene<BR>> > > ><BR>> > >=20
> I =
was=20
forwarded the following;<BR>> > > ><BR>> > >=20
> A =
price=20
under $25 is a great entry point<BR>> > > > for this=20
dual<BR>> > >=20
> =20
generic/diabetes play -- forget the noise<BR>> > > > =
from the=20
momentum<BR>> > >=20
> =20
buyers-turned-sellers. They were cleaned<BR>> > > > out =
with the=20
huge volume<BR>> > >=20
> =
sales, so=20
now it's time to build or add to<BR>> > > > your =
positions to=20
get to<BR>> > >=20
> a =
$25 cost=20
basis. I still think we can<BR>> > > > hold on for a $50 =
value=20
at<BR>> > >=20
> the =
end of=20
2004 on $2 per share earnings<BR>> > > > in =
2004.<BR>> >=20
> ><BR>> > >=20
> =
Let's lower=20
the buy under for HITK to $25.<BR>> > > ><BR>> > =
>=20
><BR>> > > ><BR>> > ><BR>> > =
><BR>> >=20
> __________________________________<BR>> > > Do you=20
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