RE: [CANSLIM] CLZR

From: "Pritish Shah" <pshah@lason.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CLZR
Date: Fri, 08 Aug 2003 00:35:28 -0400
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Fabio,

Also, look at the CLZR chart that is attached. If you notice:

1) The stock moved out of the trend -- a sell signal according to WON.

2) Somewhat of a upward wedging triangle -- I believe it is a bearish
signal.

I will give you more info once I study it further (I am trying to learn
too ;) )

Regards,
Pritish


>>> kmalm@earthlink.net 08/07/03 8:44 PM >>>
Hi Fabio,

Here are a couple of charts so that you can see the technical action.
First,
a weekly chart that shows how CLZR rose from it's double bottom late
last
year:

http://www.breakoutwatch.com/katherine/CLZR080103Wkly.JPG

Notice where the latest valid base formed and where CLZR made a definite
move above it at about $10:

http://www.breakoutwatch.com/katherine/CLZR080703.JPG

As you can see, your entry on 7/22 was at a price that was significantly
extended from the prior base, meaning that the risk that the stock could
easily fall back was extremely high. In other words, you had no wiggle
room.
Notice also, that when you entered on 7/22 that the stock's 50 and 200
day
moving averages had diverged significantly. That's another visual clue
to
let you know that the stock is extended. I call it the "rubberband
effect."
In other words, you don't really know how long these kinds of moves can
go
on, but once the stock is extended too far to the upside, the rubberband
snaps and the price returns to a more normal pattern of ascent. That
pullback in this case could easily take the stock as low as $10 (back to
the
top of the previous valid base), or could snap it back to an
intermediate
term area of support (the 50 day moving average). There's really no way
to
know how far it will snap, but the psychology of the market (profit
taking)
will most certainly see the stock fall before rising further. Given that
the
market as a whole has had more than it's share of distribution days, the
liklihood that it would happen was even higher.

I'd say the very best lesson learned on this one is to be more diligent
about reading the chart and finding an optimal entry point. For example,
if
you'd entered this stock on 4/30 when it broke out at about $10, worse
case,
you'd have been able to exit the stock with a modest gain. Next lesson
is to
be sure to look at the chart and be sure you understand where your exit
point will be if the price action moves against you. Whether you use a
7-8%
stop loss or something more technically driven, you'll know when to pull
the
plug next time before it gets away from you. As a side note, the 7-8%
stop
loss is optimized for entries *at the breakout* not at extended prices,
so
beware! One can still lose their shirt 8% at a time, it just takes
longer.

Katherine

- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Callegher, Fabio
Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 6:49 PM
To: kmalm@earthlink.net
Cc: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CLZR


Hi Katherine and Hi all,,

Thanks a lot for the constructive feedback.
To answer Katherine's question I had bought CLZR shares on the 22 of
july.
I will be more careful next time and cut the loss at 7-8%. Simply I
didn't
expect CLZR to fall so sharply in such a short time.

Thanks again and best regards
Fabio


- -----Original Message-----
From: Katherine Malm [mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net]
Sent: 07 August 2003 23:52
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CLZR


Hi Fabio,

You mentioned that you bought CLZR a couple of days ago. If you don't
mind,
would you tell us exactly what date? I think the easiest way to
"explain"
CLZR is for us to show your entry vs. an "optimal" entry and then show
why
an "optimal" entry would have provided some "wiggle room" for your
position.
That should also help explain why it is far less important to know the
"reason" for the drop than the explanation as to what can happen
technically
to a stock. For the most part, nobody ever knows the reason until after
the
fact, so this might be a good chance to learn why good entries are so
important.

Katherine

- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Callegher, Fabio
Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 3:25 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] CLZR


Hello,,

I'm a newbie to CANSLIM. I bought CLZR (Candela Inc.) shares a few days
ago
after studying WON book a while but they have dropped about 20% between
today and yesterday. I tried to find some "bad news" around the company
but
couldn't find any.  Do you think it's just institutional investors
pulling
out or is there any
other underlying reason for that that you can spot ?

Thanks a lot for any feedack
Best regards
Fabio


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