Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Rolf Hertenstein" <rolfh@mindspring.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WEBX
Date: Sat, 9 Aug 2003 10:22:42 -0600
Previous Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX) Fanus
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- ----- Original Message ----- From: "Fanus" <fanus13@yahoo.com> > CANLSIM is a long strategy and according to the rules, > you get out if you are in a bear market. > I think this type of discussions are > better suited for a different discussion group. I disagree. Though WON spends almost all of his HTMMIS pages on long techniques, he does discuss short selling in correcting or beginning bear markets. He even gives a couple of chart pattern examples, like the Head and Shoulders Top. I would welcome any discussion here from the more experienced members on their short techniques. If we are (or even if we aren't) at the beginning of a multi-year, mostly sideways market, with occassional bull runs, seems like effective shorting could really help overall returns. Some specific thoughts on DMC's post (see below): A (annual earnings): Seems like a change in earnings (for the worse) would be more important a specific number like 15%. N (new something): My two thoughts are 1. a new product that *doesn't* live up to expectations, or 2. new 52-week low. I (institutional): If there are large institutional positions, and they begin to dumpp the stock, might this not drive the price more aggressively downward? Rolf > > --- DMC197807 <dmc197807@comcast.net> wrote: > > P.S. [prescript]: I can't see any reason to > > establish (or keep) a long > > position on WEBX here. Too much risk for me. > > > > Mark, > > > > Welcome to the thread. I don't have any problem > > with you posting your > > website location here; it looked pretty good to me. > > > > On the subject of using canslim to find breakdown > > rather than breakout > > candidates, I think that's a good idea. I'm not > > sure how we properly tweak > > the criteria, but I think it's an excellent topic > > for education here. Why? > > Because the M in Milscan is very, very precarious > > here and I think shorts > > and puts are going to smash longs and calls over the > > next several weeks. I > > don't see a lot more upside to the market at this > > point. Just pulling up an > > SPX chart shows a very very tired market, and the > > path of least resistance > > looks to be southeast-, and not northeastward bound. > > > > With that in mind, how would be alter CANSLIM to > > look for breakdowns? [I'll > > put commentary in brackets for breakdown] > > > > C = Current quarterly earnings per share (should > > show a major percentage > > increase compared to the prior year's same quarter) > > [Here I think you take > > all earnings up to, say 10% positive. Why? What we > > are looking for are > > stocks which have risen with the tide in spite of > > lukewarm or poor earnings, > > but earnings up to 30% seem too robust to produce a > > good short.] > > > > A = Annual earnings (the company should be > > experiencing meaningful growth > > over the past five years) [Perhaps the cap on annual > > earnings growth should > > be 15%??] > > > > N = New products, new management, new high prices [I > > don't see how to apply > > this one; I don't want to exclude new high prices, > > because we're looking for > > overvalued stocks. Other ideas?] > > > > S = Supply and demand (small capitalization stocks > > with high trading volume) > > [Here, having large cap elephants could be a great > > idea > > > > L = Leader in the industry, not a laggard [here, use > > a relative strength > > rating of 60 or below?] > > > > I = Institutional sponsorship (a little goes a long > > way) [Hmmmm. Do we want > > high institutional ownership, or is this factor one > > to be left out > > > > M = Market direction (should be headed up). [This > > one goes first. For me, > > the market is facing a lot more easy downside right > > here than upside. > > Chances of a SPX in the 600, 700, 800 range in the > > next 3-4 months is much > > greater, to me, than a SPX move to 1100, 1200, > > 1300.] > > > > Now comes the difficulty of establishing a pivot, > > and selling at the > > breakdown of that point. > > > > > > > > DMC > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Mark Crisp" > > <stressfreetrader@btopenworld.com> > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> > > Sent: Wednesday, August 06, 2003 8:17 AM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WEBX > > > > > > > What about using CANSLIM in reverse to find > > shorting candidates? > > > > > > I ran this scan on my filter and came up with > > some nice looking shorting > > > candidates: > > > > > > 1 year low > > > RS <30 > > > E.P.S. <30 > > > Price >$30 > > > Volume >250,000 > > > Cap. >2.0bn > > > > > > Looking for poor fundamental stocks that are > > falling in price. Reverese > > > CANSLIM if you like. Trade the breakouts. > > > > > > What do you say? > > > > > > Mark Crisp > > > http://www.stressfreetrading.com > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: "Jiehui" <ddloyilbshrb@iartdesign.com> > > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 06, 2003 5:42 AM > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] WEBX > > > > > > > > > > Hi all, > > > > > > > > I'm a beginner in this and is still a little > > unsure of how to read > > charts. > > > I hope some of the more experienced chart readers > > on this group can help > > me. > > > > > > > > WEBX has formed the teacup w/ handle pattern and > > I mistakenly bought at > > > the volume surge thinking it's a break-out, only > > to find it went down > > 5.68% > > > > > > > > Is it forming another handle now and should I > > continue holding on to the > > > stock and wait for the handle to form or until the > > 8% stop-loss is > > reached. > > > Or should I exit my position now? Is this > > considered a failed break-out? > > > > > > > > The rating for this WEBX is currently: 97 81 73 > > A+ A A- > > > > > > > > Regards, > > > > Jiehui > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > > email. > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > __________________________________ > Do you Yahoo!? > Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free, easy-to-use web site design software > http://sitebuilder.yahoo.com > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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