RE: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX)

From: Fanus <fanus13@yahoo.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX)
Date: Sat, 9 Aug 2003 14:18:41 -0700 (PDT)
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Mark

You probably can reverse the rules for shorts. I don't
know. I don't think anyone have tested it over the
same timeframe that WON have used to develop CANSLIM. 

The point I was trying to make is that if you reverse
the rules to pick shorts you cannot call it CANSLIM
anymore. In theory it would actually be the complete
opposite of CANSLIM.

Currently we can use HTTTMIS and other WON material as
a baseline for CANSLIM and looking up WON's
recommendations for CANSLIM, based on time tested
observations. Just reversing the rules leave us with
no baseline.

As in my previous comment about WON mentioning short
selling doesn't make it CANSLIM, on the same note,
just because IBD said one should learn it, does not
make it CANSLIM.  I agree that one probably should
learn to do it, but again, this is not CANSLIM. And
this is what this group is about. About CANSLIM.

If we start to discuss short selling using CANSLIM,
why not discuss day, swing, option trading CANSLIM
stocks?  This will be completely what CANSLIM is not
about, but just because we throw CANSLIM in somewhere,
this would make it ok?  

I just think there are other groups and places where
one can go to learn all the other different things. If
this was a general financial discussion board all
kinds of different topics would be ok. But this isn't
a general discussion board.

If there are lots of interest in discussing short
techniques for CANSLIM stocks, why not start a new
group on Yahoo Groups for example?  Then everyone who
is interested in that, can discuss their favorite
shorting stragegies in a relevant group.

Regards
- - Fanus

- --- Mark Kerson <mkerson@dplus.net> wrote:
> I don't know. 
> 
> It does not seem inappropriate to discuss using
> CANSLIM to short on this
> site. 
> 
> 
> In IBD, Thursday, August 7, 2003, on the front page
> of B1, in Investor's
> Corner, the last line of the box under "Advanced
> Study" says, "Learn to
> sell shares short during a market decline (see Feb.
> 14 Corner)" 
> 
> It seems possible (at least logical, I certainly
> can't claim that I have
> done it or know anyone who has) to reverse the
> principles and choose
> shorts. Therefore if someone is interested in
> exploring it, well, I
> don't see why we can't.
> 
> At any rate I would like too follow such a
> discussion. 
> 
> Mark 
> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf
> Of Fanus
> Sent: Saturday, August 09, 2003 1:16 PM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX) 
> 
> Rolf
> 
> Yes, WON spent about 3 pages on short selling in his
> book of about 270 pages. And in these three pages he
> showed two chart patterns and doesn't mention any of
> the CANSLIM attributes, or reverse of them for
> shorting.  HTTMIS mentioned lots of other things
> also,
> but this isn't a group to discuss HTTMIS. It is a
> group to discuss CANSLIM.
> 
> Just because he mentioned short selling in the book,
> doesn't make it CANSLIM. He also mentioned
> daytrading
> and swingtrading in his book. Also not CANSLIM. If
> you
> decide to use reverse CANSLIM criteria to pick
> shorts
> then it is fine.  But this doesn't make it CANSLIM
> and
> is not mentioned by WON at all as shorting criteria.
> 
> Any rules you use for shorting is your rules and not
> WON's rules for CANSLIM.
> 
> To use the criteria below, where in CANSLIM, or
> HTTMIS
> for that matter, is the "ANI" criteria mentioned as
> valid shorting criteria?
> 
> If you want to learn more about selling short, why
> not
> find a discussion group which main goal is to
> discuss
> shorting methods and criteria?  I sell short stocks
> too and I am not against shorting. I am just against
> discussing it out of place.  
> 
> Best Regards
> - Fanus
> 
> --- Rolf Hertenstein <rolfh@mindspring.com> wrote:
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Fanus" <fanus13@yahoo.com>
> > 
> > > CANLSIM is a long strategy and according to the
> > rules,
> > > you get out if you are in a bear market.
> > > I think this type of discussions are
> > > better suited for a different discussion group.
> > 
> > I disagree.  Though WON spends almost all of his
> > HTMMIS pages on long
> > techniques, he does discuss short selling in
> > correcting or beginning bear
> > markets.  He even gives a couple of chart pattern
> > examples, like the Head
> > and Shoulders Top.  I would welcome any discussion
> > here from the more
> > experienced members on their short techniques.  If
> > we are (or even if we
> > aren't) at the beginning of a multi-year, mostly
> > sideways market, with
> > occassional bull runs, seems like effective
> shorting
> > could really help
> > overall returns.
> > 
> > Some specific thoughts on DMC's post (see below):
> > A (annual earnings): Seems like a change in
> earnings
> > (for the worse) would
> > be more important a specific number like 15%.
> > N (new something): My two thoughts are 1. a new
> > product that *doesn't* live
> > up to expectations, or 2. new 52-week low.
> > I (institutional): If there are large
> institutional
> > positions, and they
> > begin to dumpp the stock, might this not drive the
> > price more aggressively
> > downward?
> > 
> >  Rolf
> > 
> > >
> > > --- DMC197807 <dmc197807@comcast.net> wrote:
> > > > P.S. [prescript]:  I can't see any reason to
> > > > establish (or keep) a long
> > > > position on WEBX here.  Too much risk for me.
> > > >
> > > > Mark,
> > > >
> > > > Welcome to the thread.  I don't have any
> problem
> > > > with you posting your
> > > > website location here; it looked pretty good
> to
> > me.
> > > >
> > > > On the subject of using canslim to find
> > breakdown
> > > > rather than breakout
> > > > candidates, I think that's a good idea.  I'm
> not
> > > > sure how we properly tweak
> > > > the criteria, but I think it's an excellent
> > topic
> > > > for education here.  Why?
> > > > Because the M in Milscan is very, very
> > precarious
> > > > here and I think shorts
> > > > and puts are going to smash longs and calls
> over
> > the
> > > > next several weeks.  I
> > > > don't see a lot more upside to the market at
> > this
> > > > point.  Just pulling up an
> > > > SPX chart shows a very very tired market, and
> > the
> > > > path of least resistance
> > > > looks to be southeast-, and not northeastward
> > bound.
> > > >
> > > > With that in mind, how would be alter CANSLIM
> to
> > > > look for breakdowns?  [I'll
> > > > put commentary in brackets for breakdown]
> > > >
> > > > C = Current quarterly earnings per share
> (should
> > > > show a major percentage
> > > > increase compared to the prior year's same
> > quarter)
> > > > [Here I think you take
> > > > all earnings up to, say 10% positive.  Why? 
> > What we
> > > > are looking for are
> > > > stocks which have risen with the tide in spite
> > of
> > > > lukewarm or poor earnings,
> > > > but earnings up to 30% seem too robust to
> > produce a
> > > > good short.]
> > > >
> > > > A = Annual earnings (the company should be
> > > > experiencing meaningful growth
> > > > over the past five years) [Perhaps the cap on
> > annual
> > > > earnings growth should
> > > > be 15%??]
> > > >
> > > > N = New products, new management, new high
> > prices [I
> > > > don't see how to apply
> > > > this one; I don't want to exclude new high
> > prices,
> > > > because we're looking for
> > > > overvalued stocks.  Other ideas?]
> > > >
> > > > S = Supply and demand (small capitalization
> > stocks
> > > > with high trading volume)
> > > > [Here, having large cap elephants could be a
> 
=== message truncated ===


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