Re: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX)

From: Tomas <tomas986@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX)
Date: Sun, 10 Aug 2003 18:34:56 -0700 (PDT)
Next Article (by Date): RE: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX) "Katherine Malm"
Top of Thread: RE: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX) "Katherine Malm"
Next in Thread: RE: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX) "Katherine Malm"
Articles sorted by: [Date] [Author] [Subject]
Just want to put my two bits in.  I currently do not
short or plan to do it until I am comfortable with CS
long (maybe another year).  However, I would not mind
at all if there is discussions on this mailing list
about shorting leverage/using CS information.

Having said that, I am not sure if you can use any CS
information to implement a short strategy.  It may be
that you are using the wrong tool (CS) for the job
(shorting).  Or maybe not.  I always try to have an
open mind.


Regards,
tomas

- --- Fanus <fanus13@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Rolf
> 
> Yes, WON spent about 3 pages on short selling in his
> book of about 270 pages. And in these three pages he
> showed two chart patterns and doesn't mention any of
> the CANSLIM attributes, or reverse of them for
> shorting.  HTTMIS mentioned lots of other things
> also,
> but this isn't a group to discuss HTTMIS. It is a
> group to discuss CANSLIM.
> 
> Just because he mentioned short selling in the book,
> doesn't make it CANSLIM. He also mentioned
> daytrading
> and swingtrading in his book. Also not CANSLIM. If
> you
> decide to use reverse CANSLIM criteria to pick
> shorts
> then it is fine.  But this doesn't make it CANSLIM
> and
> is not mentioned by WON at all as shorting criteria.
> 
> Any rules you use for shorting is your rules and not
> WON's rules for CANSLIM.
> 
> To use the criteria below, where in CANSLIM, or
> HTTMIS
> for that matter, is the "ANI" criteria mentioned as
> valid shorting criteria?
> 
> If you want to learn more about selling short, why
> not
> find a discussion group which main goal is to
> discuss
> shorting methods and criteria?  I sell short stocks
> too and I am not against shorting. I am just against
> discussing it out of place.  
> 
> Best Regards
> - Fanus
> 
> --- Rolf Hertenstein <rolfh@mindspring.com> wrote:
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Fanus" <fanus13@yahoo.com>
> > 
> > > CANLSIM is a long strategy and according to the
> > rules,
> > > you get out if you are in a bear market.
> > > I think this type of discussions are
> > > better suited for a different discussion group.
> > 
> > I disagree.  Though WON spends almost all of his
> > HTMMIS pages on long
> > techniques, he does discuss short selling in
> > correcting or beginning bear
> > markets.  He even gives a couple of chart pattern
> > examples, like the Head
> > and Shoulders Top.  I would welcome any discussion
> > here from the more
> > experienced members on their short techniques.  If
> > we are (or even if we
> > aren't) at the beginning of a multi-year, mostly
> > sideways market, with
> > occassional bull runs, seems like effective
> shorting
> > could really help
> > overall returns.
> > 
> > Some specific thoughts on DMC's post (see below):
> > A (annual earnings): Seems like a change in
> earnings
> > (for the worse) would
> > be more important a specific number like 15%.
> > N (new something): My two thoughts are 1. a new
> > product that *doesn't* live
> > up to expectations, or 2. new 52-week low.
> > I (institutional): If there are large
> institutional
> > positions, and they
> > begin to dumpp the stock, might this not drive the
> > price more aggressively
> > downward?
> > 
> >  Rolf
> > 
> > >
> > > --- DMC197807 <dmc197807@comcast.net> wrote:
> > > > P.S. [prescript]:  I can't see any reason to
> > > > establish (or keep) a long
> > > > position on WEBX here.  Too much risk for me.
> > > >
> > > > Mark,
> > > >
> > > > Welcome to the thread.  I don't have any
> problem
> > > > with you posting your
> > > > website location here; it looked pretty good
> to
> > me.
> > > >
> > > > On the subject of using canslim to find
> > breakdown
> > > > rather than breakout
> > > > candidates, I think that's a good idea.  I'm
> not
> > > > sure how we properly tweak
> > > > the criteria, but I think it's an excellent
> > topic
> > > > for education here.  Why?
> > > > Because the M in Milscan is very, very
> > precarious
> > > > here and I think shorts
> > > > and puts are going to smash longs and calls
> over
> > the
> > > > next several weeks.  I
> > > > don't see a lot more upside to the market at
> > this
> > > > point.  Just pulling up an
> > > > SPX chart shows a very very tired market, and
> > the
> > > > path of least resistance
> > > > looks to be southeast-, and not northeastward
> > bound.
> > > >
> > > > With that in mind, how would be alter CANSLIM
> to
> > > > look for breakdowns?  [I'll
> > > > put commentary in brackets for breakdown]
> > > >
> > > > C = Current quarterly earnings per share
> (should
> > > > show a major percentage
> > > > increase compared to the prior year's same
> > quarter)
> > > > [Here I think you take
> > > > all earnings up to, say 10% positive.  Why? 
> > What we
> > > > are looking for are
> > > > stocks which have risen with the tide in spite
> > of
> > > > lukewarm or poor earnings,
> > > > but earnings up to 30% seem too robust to
> > produce a
> > > > good short.]
> > > >
> > > > A = Annual earnings (the company should be
> > > > experiencing meaningful growth
> > > > over the past five years) [Perhaps the cap on
> > annual
> > > > earnings growth should
> > > > be 15%??]
> > > >
> > > > N = New products, new management, new high
> > prices [I
> > > > don't see how to apply
> > > > this one; I don't want to exclude new high
> > prices,
> > > > because we're looking for
> > > > overvalued stocks.  Other ideas?]
> > > >
> > > > S = Supply and demand (small capitalization
> > stocks
> > > > with high trading volume)
> > > > [Here, having large cap elephants could be a
> > great
> > > > idea
> > > >
> > > > L = Leader in the industry, not a laggard
> [here,
> > use
> > > > a relative strength
> > > > rating of 60 or below?]
> > > >
> > > > I = Institutional sponsorship (a little goes a
> > long
> > > > way) [Hmmmm.  Do we want
> > > > high institutional ownership, or is this
> factor
> > one
> > > > to be left out
> > > >
> > > > M = Market direction (should be headed up). 
> > [This
> > > > one goes first.  For me,
> > > > the market is facing a lot more easy downside
> > right
> > > > here than upside.
> > > > Chances of a SPX in the 600, 700, 800 range in
> > the
> > > > next 3-4 months is much
> > > > greater, to me, than a SPX move to 1100, 1200,
> > > > 1300.]
> > > >
> > > > Now comes the difficulty of establishing a
> > pivot,
> > > > and selling at the
> > > > breakdown of that point.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> 
=== message truncated ===


__________________________________
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free, easy-to-use web site design software
http://sitebuilder.yahoo.com

- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.
Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.