Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Harold Josephson" <hj@hjosephson.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX)
Date: Sun, 10 Aug 2003 23:33:59 -0700
Previous Article (by Date): RE: [CANSLIM] FW: JOSB "Jeff Henderson"
Top of Thread: RE: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX) "Katherine Malm"
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]
Hi Katherine, How does one screen for "failed tops"? Thanks, Harold Harold Josephson hj@hjosephson.com - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2003 7:48 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX)=20 Hi Tomas, I think you've made a good point in saying "may be that you are using = the wrong tool (CS) for the job (shorting)." Break CANSLIM into its component parts and you can take one or two of = them to find short candidates, but CANSLIM is what it is because it = represents a collective set of criteria for finding fundamentally attractive stocks = at the right time for purchasing long positions. When it comes to shorting, there's only one thing that matters to me....technicals and a market that's heading South. The only thing = "CANSLIM" about that is that I'll use the RSRank to help me find candidates. I do = two things: (1) Look for failed tops (high RS), a subsequent rise that falls short = of that failed top, and a continuation move down. Bingo, short candidate. (2) Look for lousy stocks that are in downtrends (low RS) that rise on = low volume to the downtrend line and then make a continuation move down. = Bingo, short candidate number 2. I could care less what the fundamentals were in either case, good or = bad, because they don't have influence in the short term. That is, the price action of the stock in the short term (which a shorting methodology represents) is all that matters. The move isn't over a significant = enough period for fundamentals to affect the price action. All in all, IMHO, trying to make a complex shorting methodology based on = any of the letters in CANSLIM other than maybe I or M is a lot of = unnecessary complexity for very little payback. Best resources on shorting: Dave Landry's "On Swing Trading" and Stan Weinstein's "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets." Keep it simple. Katherine - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tomas Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2003 8:35 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX) Just want to put my two bits in. I currently do not short or plan to do it until I am comfortable with CS long (maybe another year). However, I would not mind at all if there is discussions on this mailing list about shorting leverage/using CS information. Having said that, I am not sure if you can use any CS information to implement a short strategy. It may be that you are using the wrong tool (CS) for the job (shorting). Or maybe not. I always try to have an open mind. Regards, tomas - --- Fanus <fanus13@yahoo.com> wrote: > Rolf > > Yes, WON spent about 3 pages on short selling in his > book of about 270 pages. And in these three pages he > showed two chart patterns and doesn't mention any of > the CANSLIM attributes, or reverse of them for > shorting. HTTMIS mentioned lots of other things > also, > but this isn't a group to discuss HTTMIS. It is a > group to discuss CANSLIM. > > Just because he mentioned short selling in the book, > doesn't make it CANSLIM. He also mentioned > daytrading > and swingtrading in his book. Also not CANSLIM. If > you > decide to use reverse CANSLIM criteria to pick > shorts > then it is fine. But this doesn't make it CANSLIM > and > is not mentioned by WON at all as shorting criteria. > > Any rules you use for shorting is your rules and not > WON's rules for CANSLIM. > > To use the criteria below, where in CANSLIM, or > HTTMIS > for that matter, is the "ANI" criteria mentioned as > valid shorting criteria? > > If you want to learn more about selling short, why > not > find a discussion group which main goal is to > discuss > shorting methods and criteria? I sell short stocks > too and I am not against shorting. I am just against > discussing it out of place. > > Best Regards > - Fanus > > --- Rolf Hertenstein <rolfh@mindspring.com> wrote: > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Fanus" <fanus13@yahoo.com> > > > > > CANLSIM is a long strategy and according to the > > rules, > > > you get out if you are in a bear market. > > > I think this type of discussions are > > > better suited for a different discussion group. > > > > I disagree. Though WON spends almost all of his > > HTMMIS pages on long > > techniques, he does discuss short selling in > > correcting or beginning bear > > markets. He even gives a couple of chart pattern > > examples, like the Head > > and Shoulders Top. I would welcome any discussion > > here from the more > > experienced members on their short techniques. If > > we are (or even if we > > aren't) at the beginning of a multi-year, mostly > > sideways market, with > > occassional bull runs, seems like effective > shorting > > could really help > > overall returns. > > > > Some specific thoughts on DMC's post (see below): > > A (annual earnings): Seems like a change in > earnings > > (for the worse) would > > be more important a specific number like 15%. > > N (new something): My two thoughts are 1. a new > > product that *doesn't* live > > up to expectations, or 2. new 52-week low. > > I (institutional): If there are large > institutional > > positions, and they > > begin to dumpp the stock, might this not drive the > > price more aggressively > > downward? > > > > Rolf > > > > > > > > --- DMC197807 <dmc197807@comcast.net> wrote: > > > > P.S. [prescript]: I can't see any reason to > > > > establish (or keep) a long > > > > position on WEBX here. Too much risk for me. > > > > > > > > Mark, > > > > > > > > Welcome to the thread. I don't have any > problem > > > > with you posting your > > > > website location here; it looked pretty good > to > > me. > > > > > > > > On the subject of using canslim to find > > breakdown > > > > rather than breakout > > > > candidates, I think that's a good idea. I'm > not > > > > sure how we properly tweak > > > > the criteria, but I think it's an excellent > > topic > > > > for education here. Why? > > > > Because the M in Milscan is very, very > > precarious > > > > here and I think shorts > > > > and puts are going to smash longs and calls > over > > the > > > > next several weeks. I > > > > don't see a lot more upside to the market at > > this > > > > point. Just pulling up an > > > > SPX chart shows a very very tired market, and > > the > > > > path of least resistance > > > > looks to be southeast-, and not northeastward > > bound. > > > > > > > > With that in mind, how would be alter CANSLIM > to > > > > look for breakdowns? [I'll > > > > put commentary in brackets for breakdown] > > > > > > > > C =3D Current quarterly earnings per share > (should > > > > show a major percentage > > > > increase compared to the prior year's same > > quarter) > > > > [Here I think you take > > > > all earnings up to, say 10% positive. Why? > > What we > > > > are looking for are > > > > stocks which have risen with the tide in spite > > of > > > > lukewarm or poor earnings, > > > > but earnings up to 30% seem too robust to > > produce a > > > > good short.] > > > > > > > > A =3D Annual earnings (the company should be > > > > experiencing meaningful growth > > > > over the past five years) [Perhaps the cap on > > annual > > > > earnings growth should > > > > be 15%??] > > > > > > > > N =3D New products, new management, new high > > prices [I > > > > don't see how to apply > > > > this one; I don't want to exclude new high > > prices, > > > > because we're looking for > > > > overvalued stocks. Other ideas?] > > > > > > > > S =3D Supply and demand (small capitalization > > stocks > > > > with high trading volume) > > > > [Here, having large cap elephants could be a > > great > > > > idea > > > > > > > > L =3D Leader in the industry, not a laggard > [here, > > use > > > > a relative strength > > > > rating of 60 or below?] > > > > > > > > I =3D Institutional sponsorship (a little goes a > > long > > > > way) [Hmmmm. Do we want > > > > high institutional ownership, or is this > factor > > one > > > > to be left out > > > > > > > > M =3D Market direction (should be headed up). > > [This > > > > one goes first. For me, > > > > the market is facing a lot more easy downside > > right > > > > here than upside. > > > > Chances of a SPX in the 600, 700, 800 range in > > the > > > > next 3-4 months is much > > > > greater, to me, than a SPX move to 1100, 1200, > > > > 1300.] > > > > > > > > Now comes the difficulty of establishing a > > pivot, > > > > and selling at the > > > > breakdown of that point. > > > > > > > > > > > > > =3D=3D=3D message truncated =3D=3D=3D __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free, easy-to-use web site design software http://sitebuilder.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Previous Article (by Date): RE: [CANSLIM] FW: JOSB "Jeff Henderson"
Top of Thread: RE: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX) "Katherine Malm"
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]