Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: RE: "M" was ([CANSLIM] for Short Selling)
Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 07:29:41 -0500
Previous Article (by Author): RE: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX) "Katherine Malm"
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Hi DMC,
As a counter point of view, here are comments from Scott Evans of Schwab Capital
markets from today's Mendelson Report. I have found over the years that these
folks are superb technicians.
Market Analysis Group
A View of the Market
Scott B. Evans, CMT
One of the more interesting aspects of the market's correction in time over the
past two months has been the
persistent "wall of worry." The S&P 500 (SPX 977) remains up over 11 percent
year to date and over 20 percent
above its March lows, yet over the past week, the CBOE put/call ratio reached
1.02 on Thursday, and the five day
moving average reached 0.92 as of the close Friday. There are decades of
statistics that show a string of daily
high put/call ratios preceding and marking significant bottoms in the market,
yet it is rare to see such high levels
when the market remains well off its lows. This is now the third time in the
five months since the March bottom
that the put/call ratio has registered significant concern among the public. The
first was during the brief period of
consolidation in May, and the second was highlighted by John Mendelson in his
July 2 morning note. It is my
habit to focus on what people do, not what they say, and despite the various
polls that suggest otherwise, I regard
the high level of put buying as quite bullish.
- --Katherine
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of DMC197807
Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2003 6:00 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Mighty quiet out there.
Further on the M! Thang, for those who are interested. Here is the Naz 100
bullish percentage index:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$BPNDX,uu[h,a]dbclniay[de][pc13!c20!
f][vc60][i]&pref=G
Most recently it was higher than it's been in relevant history (here, you can
see it in the weekly):
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$BPNDX,uu[h,a]wbclniay[df][pc13!c20!
f][vc60][i]&pref=G
Its recent rating of 91 is just astounding
Here's the Dow:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$bpINDU,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc13!c20
!f][vc60][i]&pref=G
And the BP for the SPX:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$BPspx,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc13!c20!
f][vc60][i]&pref=G
We are definitely picking up a unform pattern of highs not seen before
(translation: everything is as bullish as possible, meaning there's just one
way to go. if you can't get more bullish, it's the top).
While you have the SPX chart open, just look at the 3 previous spikes of 77
(April 2002), 59.80 (Aug 2002) and 68.40 (Dec. 2002), and look back to what the
SPX did after those moments:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SPX,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc13!c20!f]
[vc60][i]&pref=G
77 (April 2002)--SPX went from 1150 to 775 in 5 months.
59.80 (Aug 2002)--SPX went from 965 to 768 in 1.5 months
68.40 (Dec. 2002)--SPX went from 950 to 800 in 3 months.
Anyway, it's all very interesting to look at, isn't it? Elliot Wavers might
see this overly bullish scenario as the setup for yet another 3-count wave down.
I don't really subscribe to EW stuff, but, like FIbonacci and Gann, it's useful
to at least think about. The last EW pattern, if you believe this stuff, took
the SPX down from 1500 to 768, or a 50% retrace. This one, starting at 1015.40,
could do some similar damage and take us down to 565-775 over a 12 month period.
Some bearish reports I've see predict a SPX fall to the mid 600s before year
end.
Otoh, we're in the 3rd political year, and 3 and 4 are notoriously good. And,
if you do a big Fibo study on the SPX since its base in 1995 at about 440, we've
already done a 38% retrace (back to the 62% line).
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]mbclniay[pc13!c20!f][vc6
0][i][J15983278,Y]&pref=G
All things to think about on a nice, calm, summer Sunday's evening.
DMC
----- Original Message -----
From: WJH
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2003 10:00 AM
Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Sounds interesting.
From: DMC197807
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Saturday, August 09, 2003 6:41 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Rolf & Mark,
My vote (if I get a vote) is why not discuss how to use canslim ideas to
generate potential shorts? It's not like this little epistolary group
hasn't gone off the track since I've been here (about 10 trading days),
and
it's not like it takes a lifetime to figure out Canslim in any event.
It's
really rather simple, and with the help of computers it's almost too easy.
The real difficulty lies in disciplining oneself to limit or get rid of
longs in sideways and topping markets, and be willing to reenter when the
market's correction has ended and stocks are ready to rise again. You can
find the names of candidates very easily for a little coin paid for a
subscription to IBD and/or a subscription to canslim.net.
For short discussions, let's just use the above referenced subject line
"Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling"
and the purists like Fanus et al (so far it seems to be all Fanus) can
either eyeball them and delete them, or even program their Outlook Express
to pre-delete all messages on the peripheral topic.
I think it would be helpful to understand what kind of screen would
generate
the opposite of good longs in a bad market, if only for academic,
mind-sharpening purposes. After all, if in traditional canslim technique
you are looking for 1 or 2 stocks to buy per week in a good (M!) market,
then why not reverse the order in a bad (M!) market.
With that in mind, I'd like to explore what kinds of things people think
would indicate a dangerous market, knowing in advance that calling a top
is
one of the hardest things to do BUT that falls tend to be so much more
precipitous than climbs that there's gold in those hills if you can time
it
right and buy a put to get into position.
In any event, VTO has provided a very handy site with lots of sentiment
indicators:
http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm
If you click on Sentiment and Bull/Bear you can see a very wide gap
between
bullish and bearish advisors, the kind which indicates a correction is
coming. I'd say anytime you see a gap of 25% or more (with the bulls on
top) you are looking at a dangerous situation.
The Put/Call ratio has been very low and is now climbing. Again danger.
The VIX has been unnaturally low for a long time, another coiled spring.
For COTS, I prefer to use the Quasimodos.com site:
http://www.quasimodos.com/marketrider/technical.php
The articles are interesting, and to get the reports and COTs page, click
here:
http://www.quasimodos.com/marketrider/charts.php
You can't paste the sites, but the first 3 on the right, for the Dow, the
Naz and the SPX have a very interesting graphic display of the traders'
positions. I don't know exactly what the timing is on these but the smart
money seems to be betting against this market continuing, while the small
speculators keep piling on the positions. Good bull markets (like the one
we had from March to June) often begin with very small bars.
DMC
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<DIV><SPAN class=3D453262412-11082003>Hi DMC,</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D453262412-11082003></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D453262412-11082003>As a counter point of view, here =
are=20
comments from Scott Evans of Schwab Capital markets from today's =
Mendelson=20
Report. I have found over the years that these folks are superb=20
technicians.</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D453262412-11082003><FONT size=3D2><B><FONT size=3D4>
<P>Market Analysis Group</P></FONT><FONT size=3D4>
<P>A View of the Market</P></B></FONT><I><FONT size=3D3>
<P>Scott B. Evans, CMT</P></I></FONT><FONT size=3D3>
<P>One of the more interesting aspects of the market's correction in =
time over=20
the past two months has been the</P>
<P>persistent "wall of worry." </FONT><B><FONT size=3D3>The S&P 500=20
</B></FONT><FONT size=3D3>(SPX 977) remains up over 11 percent year to =
date and=20
over 20 percent</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D3>above its March lows, yet over the past week, the CBOE =
put/call=20
ratio reached 1.02 on Thursday, and the five day</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D3>moving average reached 0.92 as of the close Friday. =
There are=20
decades of statistics that show a string of daily</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D3>high put/call ratios preceding and marking significant =
bottoms=20
in the market, yet it is rare to see such high levels</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D3>when the market remains well off its lows. This is now =
the third=20
time in the five months since the March bottom</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D3>that the put/call ratio has registered significant =
concern among=20
the public. The first was during the brief period of</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D3>consolidation in May, and the second was highlighted =
by John=20
Mendelson in his July 2 morning note. It is my</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D3>habit to focus on what people do, not what they say, =
and despite=20
the various polls that suggest otherwise, I regard</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D3>the high level of put buying as quite =
bullish.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D3></FONT> </P>
<P><SPAN class=3D453262412-11082003><FONT=20
size=3D3>--Katherine</FONT></SPAN></P></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of=20
</B>DMC197807<BR><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, August 10, 2003 6:00 =
PM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] for Short=20
Selling<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Mighty quiet out there.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Further on the M! Thang, for those =
who are=20
interested. Here is the Naz 100 bullish percentage =
index:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
=
href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]dbcln=
iay[de][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG">http://stockcharts.com/def/ser=
vlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]dbclniay[de][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3D=
G</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Most recently it was higher than it's =
been in=20
relevant history (here, you can see it in the weekly):</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
=
href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]wbcln=
iay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG">http://stockcharts.com/def/ser=
vlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]wbclniay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3D=
G</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Its recent rating of 91 is just=20
astounding</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Here's the Dow:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
=
href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$bpINDU,uu[h,a]dbcl=
niay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG">http://stockcharts.com/def/se=
rvlet/SC.web?c=3D$bpINDU,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pre=
f=3DG</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>And the BP for the SPX:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
=
href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPspx,uu[h,a]dbcln=
iay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG">http://stockcharts.com/def/ser=
vlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPspx,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3D=
G</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>We are definitely picking up a unform =
pattern of=20
highs not seen before (translation: everything is as bullish as=20
possible, meaning there's just one way to go. if you can't get =
more=20
bullish, it's the top).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>While you have the SPX chart open, =
just look at=20
the 3 previous spikes of 77 (April 2002), 59.80 (Aug 2002) and =
68.40=20
(Dec. 2002), and look back to what the SPX did after those=20
moments:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
=
href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$SPX,uu[h,a]dbclnia=
y[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG">http://stockcharts.com/def/servl=
et/SC.web?c=3D$SPX,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG<=
/A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>77 (April 2002)--SPX went from 1150 =
to 775 in 5=20
months.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>59.80 (Aug 2002)--SPX went =
from 965=20
to 768 in 1.5 months</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>68.40 (Dec. 2002)--SPX went =
from 950=20
to 800 in 3 months.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Anyway, it's all very interesting to =
look at,=20
isn't it? Elliot Wavers might see this overly bullish scenario =
as the=20
setup for yet another 3-count wave down. I don't really =
subscribe to EW=20
stuff, but, like FIbonacci and Gann, it's useful to at least think=20
about. The last EW pattern, if you believe this stuff, took the =
SPX down=20
from 1500 to 768, or a 50% retrace. This one, starting at =
1015.40, could=20
do some similar damage and take us down to 565-775 over a 12 month=20
period. Some bearish reports I've see predict a SPX fall to the =
mid 600s=20
before year end.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Otoh, we're in the 3rd political =
year, and 3 and=20
4 are notoriously good. And, if you do a big Fibo study on the =
SPX since=20
its base in 1995 at about 440, we've already done a 38% retrace (back =
to the=20
62% line).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
=
href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$spx,uu[h,a]mbclnia=
y[pc13!c20!f][vc60][i][J15983278,Y]&pref=3DG">http://stockcharts.com/=
def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$spx,uu[h,a]mbclniay[pc13!c20!f][vc60][i][J1598327=
8,Y]&pref=3DG</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>All things to think about on a nice, =
calm, summer=20
Sunday's evening.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DMC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dhefner@swbell.net =
href=3D"mailto:hefner@swbell.net">WJH</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, August 10, 2003 =
10:00=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Fw: [CANSLIM] for =
Short=20
Selling</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>Sounds interesting.</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddmc197807@comcast.net=20
href=3D"mailto:dmc197807@comcast.net">DMC197807</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, August 09, =
2003 6:41=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] for =
Short=20
Selling</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Rolf & Mark,<BR><BR>My vote (if I get a vote) =
is why=20
not discuss how to use canslim ideas to<BR>generate potential=20
shorts? It's not like this little epistolary group<BR>hasn't =
gone=20
off the track since I've been here (about 10 trading days), =
and<BR>it's=20
not like it takes a lifetime to figure out Canslim in any =
event. =20
It's<BR>really rather simple, and with the help of computers it's =
almost=20
too easy.<BR>The real difficulty lies in disciplining oneself to =
limit or=20
get rid of<BR>longs in sideways and topping markets, and be =
willing to=20
reenter when the<BR>market's correction has ended and stocks are =
ready to=20
rise again. You can<BR>find the names of candidates very =
easily for=20
a little coin paid for a<BR>subscription to IBD and/or a =
subscription to=20
canslim.net.<BR><BR>For short discussions, let's just use the =
above=20
referenced subject line<BR>"Re: [CANSLIM] for Short =
Selling"<BR><BR>and=20
the purists like Fanus et al (so far it seems to be all Fanus)=20
can<BR>either eyeball them and delete them, or even program their =
Outlook=20
Express<BR>to pre-delete all messages on the peripheral =
topic.<BR><BR>I=20
think it would be helpful to understand what kind of screen would=20
generate<BR>the opposite of good longs in a bad market, if only =
for=20
academic,<BR>mind-sharpening purposes. After all, if in =
traditional=20
canslim technique<BR>you are looking for 1 or 2 stocks to buy per =
week in=20
a good (M!) market,<BR>then why not reverse the order in a bad =
(M!)=20
market.<BR><BR>With that in mind, I'd like to explore what kinds =
of things=20
people think<BR>would indicate a dangerous market, knowing in =
advance that=20
calling a top is<BR>one of the hardest things to do BUT that falls =
tend to=20
be so much more<BR>precipitous than climbs that there's gold in =
those=20
hills if you can time it<BR>right and buy a put to get into=20
position.<BR><BR>In any event, VTO has provided a very handy site =
with=20
lots of sentiment<BR>indicators:<BR><BR><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm">http://www.vtoreport.=
com/sentiment/cot.htm</A><BR><BR>If=20
you click on Sentiment and Bull/Bear you can see a very wide gap=20
between<BR>bullish and bearish advisors, the kind which indicates =
a=20
correction is<BR>coming. I'd say anytime you see a gap of =
25% or=20
more (with the bulls on<BR>top) you are looking at a dangerous=20
situation.<BR><BR>The Put/Call ratio has been very low and is now=20
climbing. Again danger.<BR><BR>The VIX has been unnaturally =
low for=20
a long time, another coiled spring.<BR><BR>For COTS, I prefer to =
use the=20
Quasimodos.com site:<BR><BR><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.quasimodos.com/marketrider/technical.php">http://www.q=
uasimodos.com/marketrider/technical.php</A><BR><BR>The=20
articles are interesting, and to get the reports and COTs page,=20
click<BR>here:<BR><BR><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.quasimodos.com/marketrider/charts.php">http://www.quas=
imodos.com/marketrider/charts.php</A><BR><BR>You=20
can't paste the sites, but the first 3 on the right, for the Dow,=20
the<BR>Naz and the SPX have a very interesting graphic display of =
the=20
traders'<BR>positions. I don't know exactly what the timing =
is on=20
these but the smart<BR>money seems to be betting against this =
market=20
continuing, while the small<BR>speculators keep piling on the=20
positions. Good bull markets (like the one<BR>we had from =
March to=20
June) often begin with very small=20
=
bars.<BR><BR>DMC<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>=
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