Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "DMC197807" <dmc197807@comcast.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 11:49:38 -0700
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Gene,
I loved your pictures, but for the life of me I can't figure out how to =
use them. I'm trying, though. When a large % of the components of an =
index are over the 50 ma line, then that's bearish (likely to fall?)? =
So if these % have crested and are falling, then it's not quite as =
bearish (likely to fall) as before?
I'm trying to parse it out, but it may just be beyond me. I barely =
grasp the BPNDX things (where you take the stacks of names doing a P&F =
chart bullish move and make histograms out of them, look for the rise =
and the cresting), so this may completely stump me.
In something like $NYA50R, let me go back to simplicity itself. When I =
look at the daily chart for the NYSE I see an index which has risen from =
4400 to 5740 in 3 months or so, and seems to be selling off (priceline). =
The 2 month trend in the price is down, and the shorter moving averages =
are cutting down through the longer ones (the 10 is below the 20, the 20 =
is below the 30, and all three are heading down toward the 50 and the =
200. This is very bearish to me. The fact that 90% of the names used =
to be above the 50 ma and now its only 50 seems to be counting the =
angels on the head of a pin since the index seems to be heading south. =
The number of names above or below the 50 ma would seem to be more =
dependent on where the index has been than where it might be going. In =
this case, since the index has gotten smashed, all its moving averages =
are unusually low and therefore easy to cross in both directions. I =
don't know if it's overbought or oversold, I just think it's going =
anti-north in the near term.
Adding a stochastic off these percentage charts is just putting salt in =
my wounds. An oscillator to read what is essentially an oscillator?
Now, there may be some salvation on the weekly chart, or maybe not.
Am I missing something here?
DMC
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Gene Ricci=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 11:06 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M
DMC, maybe the best position ahead of this FED meeting is probably no =
position. There is no volume today..... May not make a billion shares =
on either exchange at this rate!
Check out the attached, the % over 50 DMA slide suggests we're not so =
overbought as we hear.
Gene
----- Original Message -----=20
From: DMC197807=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2003 6:00 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Mighty quiet out there.
Further on the M! Thang, for those who are interested. Here is the =
Naz 100 bullish percentage index:
=
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]dbclniay[de][=
pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG
Most recently it was higher than it's been in relevant history =
(here, you can see it in the weekly):
=
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]wbclniay[df][=
pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG
Its recent rating of 91 is just astounding
Here's the Dow:
=
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$bpINDU,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df]=
[pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG
And the BP for the SPX:
=
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPspx,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][=
pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG
We are definitely picking up a unform pattern of highs not seen =
before (translation: everything is as bullish as possible, meaning =
there's just one way to go. if you can't get more bullish, it's the =
top).
While you have the SPX chart open, just look at the 3 previous =
spikes of 77 (April 2002), 59.80 (Aug 2002) and 68.40 (Dec. 2002), and =
look back to what the SPX did after those moments:
=
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$SPX,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc=
13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG
77 (April 2002)--SPX went from 1150 to 775 in 5 months.
59.80 (Aug 2002)--SPX went from 965 to 768 in 1.5 months
68.40 (Dec. 2002)--SPX went from 950 to 800 in 3 months.
Anyway, it's all very interesting to look at, isn't it? Elliot =
Wavers might see this overly bullish scenario as the setup for yet =
another 3-count wave down. I don't really subscribe to EW stuff, but, =
like FIbonacci and Gann, it's useful to at least think about. The last =
EW pattern, if you believe this stuff, took the SPX down from 1500 to =
768, or a 50% retrace. This one, starting at 1015.40, could do some =
similar damage and take us down to 565-775 over a 12 month period. Some =
bearish reports I've see predict a SPX fall to the mid 600s before year =
end.
Otoh, we're in the 3rd political year, and 3 and 4 are notoriously =
good. And, if you do a big Fibo study on the SPX since its base in 1995 =
at about 440, we've already done a 38% retrace (back to the 62% line).
=
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$spx,uu[h,a]mbclniay[pc13!c=
20!f][vc60][i][J15983278,Y]&pref=3DG
All things to think about on a nice, calm, summer Sunday's evening.
DMC
----- Original Message -----=20
From: WJH=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2003 10:00 AM
Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Sounds interesting.
From: DMC197807=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, August 09, 2003 6:41 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Rolf & Mark,
My vote (if I get a vote) is why not discuss how to use canslim =
ideas to
generate potential shorts? It's not like this little epistolary =
group
hasn't gone off the track since I've been here (about 10 trading =
days), and
it's not like it takes a lifetime to figure out Canslim in any =
event. It's
really rather simple, and with the help of computers it's almost =
too easy.
The real difficulty lies in disciplining oneself to limit or get =
rid of
longs in sideways and topping markets, and be willing to reenter =
when the
market's correction has ended and stocks are ready to rise =
again. You can
find the names of candidates very easily for a little coin paid =
for a
subscription to IBD and/or a subscription to canslim.net.
For short discussions, let's just use the above referenced =
subject line
"Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling"
and the purists like Fanus et al (so far it seems to be all =
Fanus) can
either eyeball them and delete them, or even program their =
Outlook Express
to pre-delete all messages on the peripheral topic.
I think it would be helpful to understand what kind of screen =
would generate
the opposite of good longs in a bad market, if only for =
academic,
mind-sharpening purposes. After all, if in traditional canslim =
technique
you are looking for 1 or 2 stocks to buy per week in a good (M!) =
market,
then why not reverse the order in a bad (M!) market.
With that in mind, I'd like to explore what kinds of things =
people think
would indicate a dangerous market, knowing in advance that =
calling a top is
one of the hardest things to do BUT that falls tend to be so =
much more
precipitous than climbs that there's gold in those hills if you =
can time it
right and buy a put to get into position.
In any event, VTO has provided a very handy site with lots of =
sentiment
indicators:
http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm
If you click on Sentiment and Bull/Bear you can see a very wide =
gap between
bullish and bearish advisors, the kind which indicates a =
correction is
coming. I'd say anytime you see a gap of 25% or more (with the =
bulls on
top) you are looking at a dangerous situation.
The Put/Call ratio has been very low and is now climbing. Again =
danger.
The VIX has been unnaturally low for a long time, another coiled =
spring.
For COTS, I prefer to use the Quasimodos.com site:
http://www.quasimodos.com/marketrider/technical.php
The articles are interesting, and to get the reports and COTs =
page, click
here:
http://www.quasimodos.com/marketrider/charts.php
You can't paste the sites, but the first 3 on the right, for the =
Dow, the
Naz and the SPX have a very interesting graphic display of the =
traders'
positions. I don't know exactly what the timing is on these but =
the smart
money seems to be betting against this market continuing, while =
the small
speculators keep piling on the positions. Good bull markets =
(like the one
we had from March to June) often begin with very small bars.
DMC
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Gene,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I loved your pictures, but for the life =
of me I=20
can't figure out how to use them. I'm trying, though. When a =
large %=20
of the components of an index are over the 50 ma line, then that's =
bearish=20
(likely to fall?)? So if these % have crested and are falling, =
then it's=20
not quite as bearish (likely to fall) as before?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I'm trying to parse it out, but it may =
just be=20
beyond me. I barely grasp the BPNDX things (where you take the =
stacks of=20
names doing a P&F chart bullish move and make histograms out of =
them, look=20
for the rise and the cresting), so this may completely stump =
me.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>In something like $NYA50R, let me go =
back to=20
simplicity itself. When I look at the daily chart for the NYSE I =
see an=20
index which has risen from 4400 to 5740 in 3 months or so, and seems to =
be=20
selling off (priceline). The 2 month trend in the price is down, =
and the=20
shorter moving averages are cutting down through the longer ones (the 10 =
is=20
below the 20, the 20 is below the 30, and all three are heading down =
toward the=20
50 and the 200. This is very bearish to me. The fact that =
90% of the=20
names used to be above the 50 ma and now its only 50 seems to be =
counting the=20
angels on the head of a pin since the index seems to be heading =
south. The=20
number of names above or below the 50 ma would seem to be more dependent =
on=20
where the index has been than where it might be going. In this =
case, since=20
the index has gotten smashed, all its moving averages are unusually low =
and=20
therefore easy to cross in both directions. I don't know if it's=20
overbought or oversold, I just think it's going anti-north in the near=20
term.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Adding a stochastic off these =
percentage charts is=20
just putting salt in my wounds. An oscillator to read what is =
essentially=20
an oscillator?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Now, there may be some salvation on the =
weekly=20
chart, or maybe not.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Am I missing something =
here?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DMC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dgenr@swbell.net href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net">Gene =
Ricci</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, August 11, 2003 =
11:06=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] M</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D2>DMC, maybe the best =
position ahead of=20
this FED meeting is probably no position. There is no volume=20
today..... May not make a billion shares on either exchange at =
this=20
rate!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D2>Check out the attached, the =
% over 50=20
DMA slide suggests we're not so overbought as we hear.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D2>Gene</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddmc197807@comcast.net=20
href=3D"mailto:dmc197807@comcast.net">DMC197807</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, August 10, 2003 =
6:00=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] for =
Short=20
Selling</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Mighty quiet out =
there.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Further on the M! Thang, for those =
who are=20
interested. Here is the Naz 100 bullish percentage =
index:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
=
href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]dbcln=
iay[de][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG">http://stockcharts.com/def/ser=
vlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]dbclniay[de][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3D=
G</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Most recently it was higher than =
it's been in=20
relevant history (here, you can see it in the weekly):</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
=
href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]wbcln=
iay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG">http://stockcharts.com/def/ser=
vlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]wbclniay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3D=
G</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Its recent rating of 91 is just=20
astounding</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Here's the Dow:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
=
href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$bpINDU,uu[h,a]dbcl=
niay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG">http://stockcharts.com/def/se=
rvlet/SC.web?c=3D$bpINDU,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pre=
f=3DG</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>And the BP for the =
SPX:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
=
href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPspx,uu[h,a]dbcln=
iay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG">http://stockcharts.com/def/ser=
vlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPspx,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3D=
G</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>We are definitely picking up a =
unform pattern=20
of highs not seen before (translation: everything is as =
bullish as=20
possible, meaning there's just one way to go. if you can't get =
more=20
bullish, it's the top).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>While you have the SPX chart open, =
just look at=20
the 3 previous spikes of 77 (April 2002), 59.80 (Aug 2002) and =
68.40=20
(Dec. 2002), and look back to what the SPX did after those=20
moments:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
=
href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$SPX,uu[h,a]dbclnia=
y[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG">http://stockcharts.com/def/servl=
et/SC.web?c=3D$SPX,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG<=
/A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>77 (April 2002)--SPX went from 1150 =
to 775 in 5=20
months.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>59.80 (Aug 2002)--SPX went =
from 965=20
to 768 in 1.5 months</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>68.40 (Dec. 2002)--SPX went =
from 950=20
to 800 in 3 months.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Anyway, it's all very interesting =
to look at,=20
isn't it? Elliot Wavers might see this overly bullish scenario =
as the=20
setup for yet another 3-count wave down. I don't really =
subscribe to=20
EW stuff, but, like FIbonacci and Gann, it's useful to at least =
think=20
about. The last EW pattern, if you believe this stuff, took =
the SPX=20
down from 1500 to 768, or a 50% retrace. This one, starting at =
1015.40, could do some similar damage and take us down to 565-775 =
over a 12=20
month period. Some bearish reports I've see predict a SPX fall =
to the=20
mid 600s before year end.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Otoh, we're in the 3rd political =
year, and 3=20
and 4 are notoriously good. And, if you do a big Fibo study on =
the SPX=20
since its base in 1995 at about 440, we've already done a 38% =
retrace (back=20
to the 62% line).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
=
href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$spx,uu[h,a]mbclnia=
y[pc13!c20!f][vc60][i][J15983278,Y]&pref=3DG">http://stockcharts.com/=
def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$spx,uu[h,a]mbclniay[pc13!c20!f][vc60][i][J1598327=
8,Y]&pref=3DG</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>All things to think about on a =
nice, calm,=20
summer Sunday's evening.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DMC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dhefner@swbell.net =
href=3D"mailto:hefner@swbell.net">WJH</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, August 10, =
2003 10:00=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Fw: [CANSLIM] for =
Short=20
Selling</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>Sounds interesting.</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddmc197807@comcast.net=20
href=3D"mailto:dmc197807@comcast.net">DMC197807</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, August =
09, 2003=20
6:41 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
for Short=20
Selling</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Rolf & Mark,<BR><BR>My vote (if I get a vote) =
is why=20
not discuss how to use canslim ideas to<BR>generate potential=20
shorts? It's not like this little epistolary =
group<BR>hasn't gone=20
off the track since I've been here (about 10 trading days), =
and<BR>it's=20
not like it takes a lifetime to figure out Canslim in any =
event. =20
It's<BR>really rather simple, and with the help of computers =
it's almost=20
too easy.<BR>The real difficulty lies in disciplining oneself to =
limit=20
or get rid of<BR>longs in sideways and topping markets, and be =
willing=20
to reenter when the<BR>market's correction has ended and stocks =
are=20
ready to rise again. You can<BR>find the names of =
candidates very=20
easily for a little coin paid for a<BR>subscription to IBD =
and/or a=20
subscription to canslim.net.<BR><BR>For short discussions, let's =
just=20
use the above referenced subject line<BR>"Re: [CANSLIM] for =
Short=20
Selling"<BR><BR>and the purists like Fanus et al (so far it =
seems to be=20
all Fanus) can<BR>either eyeball them and delete them, or even =
program=20
their Outlook Express<BR>to pre-delete all messages on the =
peripheral=20
topic.<BR><BR>I think it would be helpful to understand what =
kind of=20
screen would generate<BR>the opposite of good longs in a bad =
market, if=20
only for academic,<BR>mind-sharpening purposes. After all, =
if in=20
traditional canslim technique<BR>you are looking for 1 or 2 =
stocks to=20
buy per week in a good (M!) market,<BR>then why not reverse the =
order in=20
a bad (M!) market.<BR><BR>With that in mind, I'd like to explore =
what=20
kinds of things people think<BR>would indicate a dangerous =
market,=20
knowing in advance that calling a top is<BR>one of the hardest =
things to=20
do BUT that falls tend to be so much more<BR>precipitous than =
climbs=20
that there's gold in those hills if you can time it<BR>right and =
buy a=20
put to get into position.<BR><BR>In any event, VTO has provided =
a very=20
handy site with lots of sentiment<BR>indicators:<BR><BR><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm">http://www.vtoreport.=
com/sentiment/cot.htm</A><BR><BR>If=20
you click on Sentiment and Bull/Bear you can see a very wide gap =
between<BR>bullish and bearish advisors, the kind which =
indicates a=20
correction is<BR>coming. I'd say anytime you see a gap of =
25% or=20
more (with the bulls on<BR>top) you are looking at a dangerous=20
situation.<BR><BR>The Put/Call ratio has been very low and is =
now=20
climbing. Again danger.<BR><BR>The VIX has been =
unnaturally low=20
for a long time, another coiled spring.<BR><BR>For COTS, I =
prefer to use=20
the Quasimodos.com site:<BR><BR><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.quasimodos.com/marketrider/technical.php">http://www.q=
uasimodos.com/marketrider/technical.php</A><BR><BR>The=20
articles are interesting, and to get the reports and COTs page,=20
click<BR>here:<BR><BR><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.quasimodos.com/marketrider/charts.php">http://www.quas=
imodos.com/marketrider/charts.php</A><BR><BR>You=20
can't paste the sites, but the first 3 on the right, for the =
Dow,=20
the<BR>Naz and the SPX have a very interesting graphic display =
of the=20
traders'<BR>positions. I don't know exactly what the =
timing is on=20
these but the smart<BR>money seems to be betting against this =
market=20
continuing, while the small<BR>speculators keep piling on the=20
positions. Good bull markets (like the one<BR>we had from =
March to=20
June) often begin with very small=20
=
bars.<BR><BR>DMC<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><=
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