Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Gene Ricci" <genr@swbell.net>
Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] BEAS?
Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 22:53:02 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0322_01C3605B.51721FB0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Peter, I plan to buy more BEAS when it breaks ~ 13.70 ...=20 BEAS was upgraded to BUY and placed on Merrill Lynch Focus One list on = 7/15. Here's a snapshot of Merrill's opinion on 8/7: Price: $13.11 12-Month Price Objective: $15.00 Date Established: 15-Jul-2003 Estimates (Jan) 2003A 2004E 2005E EPS: $0.28 $0.30 $0.40 P/E: 46.8x 43.7x 32.8x EPS Change (YoY): 7.1% 33.3% GAAP EPS: $0.20 $0.27 $0.37 Consensus EPS: $0.31 $0.38 (First Call: 19-Jun-2003) Q2 EPS (Jul): $0.06 $0.07 Cash Flow/Share: $0.46 $0.48 $0.57 Price/Cash Flow: 28.5x 27.3x 23.0x Dividend Rate: Nil Nil Nil Dividend Yield: Nil Nil Nil Opinion & Financial Data Investment Opinion: C-1-9 Mkt. Value / Shares Outstanding (mn): $5,535.0 / 422.2 Book Value/Share (Apr-2003): $1.9 Price/Book Ratio: 6.8x Total Debt / Mkt. Capital: 10.1% Est. 5 Year EPS Growth: 20.0% Stock Data 52-Week Range: $14.00-$4.59 Symbol / Exchange: BEAS / NASDAQ Institutional Ownership-Vickers: 66.5% Brokers Covering (First Call): 34 Highlights: . We are confident that BEA had a very good Q2 and should hit our revenue and EPS estimates of $243 ($126 million in license) and $0.07. Our checks indicate a healthy level of momentum in the market for BEA products given the 8.1 product launch. . It is our belief that close rates in the quarter were a little better than in a normal Q2, and the company should print results that reach the mid-to-high end of its license revenue forecast range of $126-$128 million. . We anticipate that management's Q3 forecast will be upbeat with a forecast that captures our estimates and calls for both sequential and annual license revenue growth. For Q3 we are projecting $248 million in total revenue, $128 million in license, and EPS of $0.08. . Our attendance at the WebLogic 8.1 marketing launch this week re-confirmed our positive view that the company should benefit from the product cycle in the coming quarters, thus providing the potential for revenue outperformance. . We continue to rate BEA Systems a Buy with a $15 price target. Our price target is based on a 35-40x P/E multiple on our FY 05 EPS estimate of $0.40, which is inline with the company's peer group. . Risks to the stock include competition from IBM and Oracle, poor IT spending environment, a disappointing product cycle, and weak field execution. ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Pete=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 5:16 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] BEAS? I was looking at the BEAS chart and it looks great - EXCEPT for the = fact that the RS line topped on long ago. Would this concern anybody = here? Thanks, Peter - ------=_NextPart_000_0322_01C3605B.51721FB0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1106" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Peter, I plan = to buy more BEAS=20 when it breaks ~ 13.70 ... </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">BEAS was upgraded to BUY and placed on = Merrill=20 Lynch Focus One list on 7/15. Here's a snapshot of Merrill's = opinion on=20 8/7:<B><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></DIV> <DIV> <P align=3Dleft>Price: $13.11</P></B></FONT><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff size=3D2> <P align=3Dleft>12-Month Price Objective: $15.00</P> <P align=3Dleft>Date Established: 15-Jul-2003</P></FONT><B><FONT = face=3DArial=20 color=3D#0000ff size=3D1> <P align=3Dleft>Estimates (Jan) 2003A 2004E 2005E</P></B></FONT><FONT=20 face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D1> <P align=3Dleft>EPS: $0.28 $0.30 $0.40</P> <P align=3Dleft>P/E: 46.8x 43.7x 32.8x</P> <P align=3Dleft>EPS Change (YoY): 7.1% 33.3%</P> <P align=3Dleft>GAAP EPS: $0.20 $0.27 $0.37</P> <P align=3Dleft>Consensus EPS: $0.31 $0.38</P> <P align=3Dleft>(First Call: 19-Jun-2003)</P> <P align=3Dleft>Q2 EPS (Jul): $0.06 $0.07</P> <P align=3Dleft>Cash Flow/Share: $0.46 $0.48 $0.57</P> <P align=3Dleft>Price/Cash Flow: 28.5x 27.3x 23.0x</P> <P align=3Dleft>Dividend Rate: Nil Nil Nil</P> <P align=3Dleft>Dividend Yield: Nil Nil Nil</P></FONT><B><FONT = face=3DArial=20 color=3D#0000ff size=3D1> <P align=3Dleft>Opinion & Financial Data</P></B></FONT><FONT=20 face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D1> <P align=3Dleft>Investment Opinion: C-1-9</P> <P align=3Dleft>Mkt. Value / Shares Outstanding (mn): $5,535.0 / = 422.2</P> <P align=3Dleft>Book Value/Share (Apr-2003): $1.9</P> <P align=3Dleft>Price/Book Ratio: 6.8x</P> <P align=3Dleft>Total Debt / Mkt. Capital: 10.1%</P> <P align=3Dleft>Est. 5 Year EPS Growth: 20.0%</P></FONT><B><FONT = face=3DArial=20 color=3D#0000ff size=3D1> <P align=3Dleft>Stock Data</P></B></FONT><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" = size=3D1> <P align=3Dleft>52-Week Range: $14.00-$4.59</P> <P align=3Dleft>Symbol / Exchange: BEAS / NASDAQ</P> <P align=3Dleft>Institutional Ownership-Vickers: 66.5%</P> <P align=3Dleft>Brokers Covering (First Call): 34</P></FONT><B><FONT = face=3DArial=20 size=3D4> <P align=3Dleft>Highlights:</P></B></FONT><FONT face=3DSymbol size=3D3> <P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3>We = are confident=20 that BEA had a very good</P> <P align=3Dleft>Q2 and should hit our revenue and EPS</P> <P align=3Dleft>estimates of $243 ($126 million in license) and</P> <P align=3Dleft>$0.07. Our checks indicate a healthy level of</P> <P align=3Dleft>momentum in the market for BEA products</P> <P align=3Dleft>given the 8.1 product launch.</P></B></FONT><FONT = face=3DSymbol=20 size=3D3> <P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3>It = is our belief=20 that close rates in the quarter</P> <P align=3Dleft>were a little better than in a normal Q2, and</P> <P align=3Dleft>the company should print results that reach</P> <P align=3Dleft>the mid-to-high end of its license revenue</P> <P align=3Dleft>forecast range of $126-$128 million.</P></B></FONT><FONT = face=3DSymbol size=3D3> <P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3>We = anticipate that=20 management=92s Q3 forecast</P> <P align=3Dleft>will be upbeat with a forecast that captures</P> <P align=3Dleft>our estimates and calls for both sequential and</P> <P align=3Dleft>annual license revenue growth. For Q3 we are</P> <P align=3Dleft>projecting $248 million in total revenue, $128</P> <P align=3Dleft>million in license, and EPS of = $0.08.</P></B></FONT><FONT=20 face=3DSymbol size=3D3> <P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" = size=3D3>Our attendance at=20 the WebLogic 8.1</P> <P align=3Dleft>marketing launch this week re-confirmed our</P> <P align=3Dleft>positive view that the company should benefit</P> <P align=3Dleft>from the product cycle in the coming quarters,</P> <P align=3Dleft>thus providing the potential for revenue</P> <P align=3Dleft>outperformance.</P></B></FONT><FONT face=3DSymbol = size=3D3> <P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3>We = continue to=20 rate BEA Systems a Buy with</P> <P align=3Dleft>a $15 price target. Our price target is based on</P> <P align=3Dleft>a 35-40x P/E multiple on our FY 05 EPS</P> <P align=3Dleft>estimate of $0.40, which is inline with the</P> <P align=3Dleft>company=92s peer group.</P></B></FONT><FONT = face=3DSymbol size=3D3> <P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" = size=3D3>Risks to the stock=20 include competition from</P> <P align=3Dleft>IBM and Oracle, poor IT spending</P> <P align=3Dleft>environment, a disappointing product cycle,</P> <P align=3Dleft>and weak field = execution.</P></B></FONT><BR><BR></FONT></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Dpeten123@nc.rr.com = href=3D"mailto:peten123@nc.rr.com">Pete</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, August 11, 2003 = 5:16=20 PM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] BEAS?</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I was looking at the BEAS chart and = it looks=20 great - EXCEPT for the fact that the RS line topped on long ago. = Would=20 this concern anybody here?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Thanks,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial = size=3D2>Peter</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_0322_01C3605B.51721FB0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". 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