Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Pete" <peten123@nc.rr.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BEAS?
Date: Tue, 12 Aug 2003 00:33:40 -0400
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Gene, where did you buy the first round? the breakout at $7 in October? =
I still think this stock is lagging significantly. Should be =
interesting earnings come out Thurs.
Peter
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Gene Ricci=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 11:53 PM
Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] BEAS?
Peter, I plan to buy more BEAS when it breaks ~ 13.70 ...=20
BEAS was upgraded to BUY and placed on Merrill Lynch Focus One list on =
7/15. Here's a snapshot of Merrill's opinion on 8/7:
Price: $13.11
12-Month Price Objective: $15.00
Date Established: 15-Jul-2003
Estimates (Jan) 2003A 2004E 2005E
EPS: $0.28 $0.30 $0.40
P/E: 46.8x 43.7x 32.8x
EPS Change (YoY): 7.1% 33.3%
GAAP EPS: $0.20 $0.27 $0.37
Consensus EPS: $0.31 $0.38
(First Call: 19-Jun-2003)
Q2 EPS (Jul): $0.06 $0.07
Cash Flow/Share: $0.46 $0.48 $0.57
Price/Cash Flow: 28.5x 27.3x 23.0x
Dividend Rate: Nil Nil Nil
Dividend Yield: Nil Nil Nil
Opinion & Financial Data
Investment Opinion: C-1-9
Mkt. Value / Shares Outstanding (mn): $5,535.0 / 422.2
Book Value/Share (Apr-2003): $1.9
Price/Book Ratio: 6.8x
Total Debt / Mkt. Capital: 10.1%
Est. 5 Year EPS Growth: 20.0%
Stock Data
52-Week Range: $14.00-$4.59
Symbol / Exchange: BEAS / NASDAQ
Institutional Ownership-Vickers: 66.5%
Brokers Covering (First Call): 34
Highlights:
. We are confident that BEA had a very good
Q2 and should hit our revenue and EPS
estimates of $243 ($126 million in license) and
$0.07. Our checks indicate a healthy level of
momentum in the market for BEA products
given the 8.1 product launch.
. It is our belief that close rates in the quarter
were a little better than in a normal Q2, and
the company should print results that reach
the mid-to-high end of its license revenue
forecast range of $126-$128 million.
. We anticipate that management's Q3 forecast
will be upbeat with a forecast that captures
our estimates and calls for both sequential and
annual license revenue growth. For Q3 we are
projecting $248 million in total revenue, $128
million in license, and EPS of $0.08.
. Our attendance at the WebLogic 8.1
marketing launch this week re-confirmed our
positive view that the company should benefit
from the product cycle in the coming quarters,
thus providing the potential for revenue
outperformance.
. We continue to rate BEA Systems a Buy with
a $15 price target. Our price target is based on
a 35-40x P/E multiple on our FY 05 EPS
estimate of $0.40, which is inline with the
company's peer group.
. Risks to the stock include competition from
IBM and Oracle, poor IT spending
environment, a disappointing product cycle,
and weak field execution.
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Pete=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 5:16 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] BEAS?
I was looking at the BEAS chart and it looks great - EXCEPT for the =
fact that the RS line topped on long ago. Would this concern anybody =
here?
Thanks,
Peter
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Gene, where did you buy the first =
round? the=20
breakout at $7 in October? I still think this stock is lagging=20
significantly. Should be interesting earnings come out =
Thurs.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Peter</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dgenr@swbell.net href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net">Gene =
Ricci</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, August 11, 2003 =
11:53=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Fw: [CANSLIM] =
BEAS?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Peter, I plan =
to buy more BEAS=20
when it breaks ~ 13.70 ... </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">BEAS was upgraded to BUY and placed =
on Merrill=20
Lynch Focus One list on 7/15. Here's a snapshot of Merrill's =
opinion on=20
8/7:<B><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></DIV>
<DIV>
<P align=3Dleft>Price: $13.11</P></B></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2>
<P align=3Dleft>12-Month Price Objective: $15.00</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Date Established: 15-Jul-2003</P></FONT><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#0000ff size=3D1>
<P align=3Dleft>Estimates (Jan) 2003A 2004E 2005E</P></B></FONT><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D1>
<P align=3Dleft>EPS: $0.28 $0.30 $0.40</P>
<P align=3Dleft>P/E: 46.8x 43.7x 32.8x</P>
<P align=3Dleft>EPS Change (YoY): 7.1% 33.3%</P>
<P align=3Dleft>GAAP EPS: $0.20 $0.27 $0.37</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Consensus EPS: $0.31 $0.38</P>
<P align=3Dleft>(First Call: 19-Jun-2003)</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Q2 EPS (Jul): $0.06 $0.07</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Cash Flow/Share: $0.46 $0.48 $0.57</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Price/Cash Flow: 28.5x 27.3x 23.0x</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Dividend Rate: Nil Nil Nil</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Dividend Yield: Nil Nil Nil</P></FONT><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#0000ff size=3D1>
<P align=3Dleft>Opinion & Financial Data</P></B></FONT><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D1>
<P align=3Dleft>Investment Opinion: C-1-9</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Mkt. Value / Shares Outstanding (mn): $5,535.0 / =
422.2</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Book Value/Share (Apr-2003): $1.9</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Price/Book Ratio: 6.8x</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Total Debt / Mkt. Capital: 10.1%</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Est. 5 Year EPS Growth: 20.0%</P></FONT><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#0000ff size=3D1>
<P align=3Dleft>Stock Data</P></B></FONT><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman" size=3D1>
<P align=3Dleft>52-Week Range: $14.00-$4.59</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Symbol / Exchange: BEAS / NASDAQ</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Institutional Ownership-Vickers: 66.5%</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Brokers Covering (First Call): 34</P></FONT><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D4>
<P align=3Dleft>Highlights:</P></B></FONT><FONT face=3DSymbol =
size=3D3>
<P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>We are confident=20
that BEA had a very good</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Q2 and should hit our revenue and EPS</P>
<P align=3Dleft>estimates of $243 ($126 million in license) and</P>
<P align=3Dleft>$0.07. Our checks indicate a healthy level of</P>
<P align=3Dleft>momentum in the market for BEA products</P>
<P align=3Dleft>given the 8.1 product launch.</P></B></FONT><FONT =
face=3DSymbol=20
size=3D3>
<P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>It is our belief=20
that close rates in the quarter</P>
<P align=3Dleft>were a little better than in a normal Q2, and</P>
<P align=3Dleft>the company should print results that reach</P>
<P align=3Dleft>the mid-to-high end of its license revenue</P>
<P align=3Dleft>forecast range of $126-$128 =
million.</P></B></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DSymbol size=3D3>
<P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>We anticipate=20
that management=92s Q3 forecast</P>
<P align=3Dleft>will be upbeat with a forecast that captures</P>
<P align=3Dleft>our estimates and calls for both sequential and</P>
<P align=3Dleft>annual license revenue growth. For Q3 we are</P>
<P align=3Dleft>projecting $248 million in total revenue, $128</P>
<P align=3Dleft>million in license, and EPS of =
$0.08.</P></B></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DSymbol size=3D3>
<P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>Our attendance=20
at the WebLogic 8.1</P>
<P align=3Dleft>marketing launch this week re-confirmed our</P>
<P align=3Dleft>positive view that the company should benefit</P>
<P align=3Dleft>from the product cycle in the coming quarters,</P>
<P align=3Dleft>thus providing the potential for revenue</P>
<P align=3Dleft>outperformance.</P></B></FONT><FONT face=3DSymbol =
size=3D3>
<P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>We continue to=20
rate BEA Systems a Buy with</P>
<P align=3Dleft>a $15 price target. Our price target is based on</P>
<P align=3Dleft>a 35-40x P/E multiple on our FY 05 EPS</P>
<P align=3Dleft>estimate of $0.40, which is inline with the</P>
<P align=3Dleft>company=92s peer group.</P></B></FONT><FONT =
face=3DSymbol size=3D3>
<P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>Risks to the=20
stock include competition from</P>
<P align=3Dleft>IBM and Oracle, poor IT spending</P>
<P align=3Dleft>environment, a disappointing product cycle,</P>
<P align=3Dleft>and weak field =
execution.</P></B></FONT><BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dpeten123@nc.rr.com =
href=3D"mailto:peten123@nc.rr.com">Pete</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, August 11, 2003 =
5:16=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
BEAS?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I was looking at the BEAS chart and =
it looks=20
great - EXCEPT for the fact that the RS line topped on long =
ago. Would=20
this concern anybody here?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Thanks,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial=20
size=3D2>Peter</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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