Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Fred Richards" <ffr@adrich.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] BEAS?
Date: Tue, 12 Aug 2003 08:19:30 -0500
Next Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] free real time quotes "Jonathan Lobatto"
Top of Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] BEAS? "joe"
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
- ------=_NextPart_000_0055_01C360AA.77115FC0
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset="us-ascii"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
BEAS is an example of where the upside potential based upon Merrill's
$15 target should cause investors to be cautious. If you are satisfied
with a gain of $1.50 or so based upon Gene's entry price, so be it. But
why not spend your time looking for those that have higher potential
gains.
It has been my experience that those who look for 20%, get 10-15% . . .
look for more, get more.
Some of the recent gains in BEAS is because of the HP & Redhat
connection revolving around Linux. Now yesterday, Carly introduced over
150 gadgets . . . wonder where the focus is now. HP has lost its focus
and will suffer in the future. Aligning with companies going around in
circles generally does not make for winning stocks.
This stock is not cheap at 43 x P/E. Also, its revenue growth and its
profit growth are diverging and below CANSLIM targets this past quarter.
Also, the 2005 EPS forecast of $.38 is only $.06 higher than the 2002
EPS number. Does that justify the high P/E.
Wonder how much stock some of those Merrill mutual funds still have to
unload of this stock . . . perhaps, that is the reason for the upgrade .
. . ah, that couldn't be the case, could it?
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of joe
Sent: Tuesday, August 12, 2003 7:31 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BEAS?
show me where an upgrade has made people money...please..you have no
idea what motives merrill has for beas other than to maybe dump it.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Pete <mailto:peten123@nc.rr.com>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Tuesday, August 12, 2003 12:33 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BEAS?
Gene, where did you buy the first round? the breakout at $7 in October?
I still think this stock is lagging significantly. Should be
interesting earnings come out Thurs.
Peter
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Gene Ricci <mailto:genr@swbell.net>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 11:53 PM
Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] BEAS?
Peter, I plan to buy more BEAS when it breaks ~ 13.70 ...
BEAS was upgraded to BUY and placed on Merrill Lynch Focus One list on
7/15. Here's a snapshot of Merrill's opinion on 8/7:
Price: $13.11
12-Month Price Objective: $15.00
Date Established: 15-Jul-2003
Estimates (Jan) 2003A 2004E 2005E
EPS: $0.28 $0.30 $0.40
P/E: 46.8x 43.7x 32.8x
EPS Change (YoY): 7.1% 33.3%
GAAP EPS: $0.20 $0.27 $0.37
Consensus EPS: $0.31 $0.38
(First Call: 19-Jun-2003)
Q2 EPS (Jul): $0.06 $0.07
Cash Flow/Share: $0.46 $0.48 $0.57
Price/Cash Flow: 28.5x 27.3x 23.0x
Dividend Rate: Nil Nil Nil
Dividend Yield: Nil Nil Nil
Opinion & Financial Data
Investment Opinion: C-1-9
Mkt. Value / Shares Outstanding (mn): $5,535.0 / 422.2
Book Value/Share (Apr-2003): $1.9
Price/Book Ratio: 6.8x
Total Debt / Mkt. Capital: 10.1%
Est. 5 Year EPS Growth: 20.0%
Stock Data
52-Week Range: $14.00-$4.59
Symbol / Exchange: BEAS / NASDAQ
Institutional Ownership-Vickers: 66.5%
Brokers Covering (First Call): 34
Highlights:
* We are confident that BEA had a very good
Q2 and should hit our revenue and EPS
estimates of $243 ($126 million in license) and
$0.07. Our checks indicate a healthy level of
momentum in the market for BEA products
given the 8.1 product launch.
* It is our belief that close rates in the quarter
were a little better than in a normal Q2, and
the company should print results that reach
the mid-to-high end of its license revenue
forecast range of $126-$128 million.
* We anticipate that management's Q3 forecast
will be upbeat with a forecast that captures
our estimates and calls for both sequential and
annual license revenue growth. For Q3 we are
projecting $248 million in total revenue, $128
million in license, and EPS of $0.08.
* Our attendance at the WebLogic 8.1
marketing launch this week re-confirmed our
positive view that the company should benefit
from the product cycle in the coming quarters,
thus providing the potential for revenue
outperformance.
* We continue to rate BEA Systems a Buy with
a $15 price target. Our price target is based on
a 35-40x P/E multiple on our FY 05 EPS
estimate of $0.40, which is inline with the
company's peer group.
* Risks to the stock include competition from
IBM and Oracle, poor IT spending
environment, a disappointing product cycle,
and weak field execution.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Pete <mailto:peten123@nc.rr.com>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 5:16 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] BEAS?
I was looking at the BEAS chart and it looks great - EXCEPT for the fact
that the RS line topped on long ago. Would this concern anybody here?
Thanks,
Peter
- ------=_NextPart_000_0055_01C360AA.77115FC0
Content-Type: text/html;
charset="us-ascii"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META HTTP-EQUIV=3D"Content-Type" CONTENT=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Dus-ascii">
<TITLE>Message</TITLE>
<META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1170" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D578540713-12082003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>BEAS=20
is an example of where the upside potential based upon Merrill's $15 =
target=20
should cause investors to be cautious. If you are satisfied with a =
gain of=20
$1.50 or so based upon Gene's entry price, so be it. But why not =
spend=20
your time looking for those that have higher potential=20
gains.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D578540713-12082003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D578540713-12082003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>It has=20
been my experience that those who look for 20%, get 10-15% . . . look =
for more,=20
get more.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D578540713-12082003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D578540713-12082003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Some=20
of the recent gains in BEAS is because of the HP & Redhat connection =
revolving around Linux. Now yesterday, Carly introduced over 150 =
gadgets .=20
. . wonder where the focus is now. HP has lost its focus and will =
suffer=20
in the future. Aligning with companies going around in circles =
generally=20
does not make for winning stocks.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D578540713-12082003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D578540713-12082003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>This=20
stock is not cheap at 43 x P/E. Also, its revenue growth and its =
profit=20
growth are diverging and below CANSLIM targets this past quarter. Also, =
the 2005=20
EPS forecast of $.38 is only $.06 higher than the 2002 EPS =
number. =20
Does that justify the high P/E.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D578540713-12082003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D578540713-12082003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Wonder=20
how much stock some of those Merrill mutual funds still have to unload =
of this=20
stock . . . perhaps, that is the reason for the upgrade . . . ah, that =
couldn't=20
be the case, could it?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader lang=3Den-us dir=3Dltr =
align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20
<B>On Behalf Of </B>joe<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, August 12, 2003 7:31=20
AM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
BEAS?<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DGeorgia color=3D#000080>show me where an upgrade has =
made people=20
money...please..you have no idea what motives merrill has for beas =
other than=20
to maybe dump it.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000080 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dpeten123@nc.rr.com =
href=3D"mailto:peten123@nc.rr.com">Pete</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, August 12, =
2003 12:33=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
BEAS?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Gene, where did you buy the first =
round?=20
the breakout at $7 in October? I still think this stock =
is=20
lagging significantly. Should be interesting earnings come out =
Thurs.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Peter</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dgenr@swbell.net href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net">Gene =
Ricci</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, August 11, =
2003 11:53=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Fw: [CANSLIM] =
BEAS?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Peter, I plan =
to buy more=20
BEAS when it breaks ~ 13.70 ... </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">BEAS was upgraded to BUY and =
placed on=20
Merrill Lynch Focus One list on 7/15. Here's a snapshot of =
Merrill's=20
opinion on 8/7:<B><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></DIV>
<DIV>
<P align=3Dleft>Price: $13.11</P></B></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2>
<P align=3Dleft>12-Month Price Objective: $15.00</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Date Established: 15-Jul-2003</P></FONT><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#0000ff size=3D1>
<P align=3Dleft>Estimates (Jan) 2003A 2004E =
2005E</P></B></FONT><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D1>
<P align=3Dleft>EPS: $0.28 $0.30 $0.40</P>
<P align=3Dleft>P/E: 46.8x 43.7x 32.8x</P>
<P align=3Dleft>EPS Change (YoY): 7.1% 33.3%</P>
<P align=3Dleft>GAAP EPS: $0.20 $0.27 $0.37</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Consensus EPS: $0.31 $0.38</P>
<P align=3Dleft>(First Call: 19-Jun-2003)</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Q2 EPS (Jul): $0.06 $0.07</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Cash Flow/Share: $0.46 $0.48 $0.57</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Price/Cash Flow: 28.5x 27.3x 23.0x</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Dividend Rate: Nil Nil Nil</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Dividend Yield: Nil Nil Nil</P></FONT><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#0000ff size=3D1>
<P align=3Dleft>Opinion & Financial Data</P></B></FONT><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D1>
<P align=3Dleft>Investment Opinion: C-1-9</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Mkt. Value / Shares Outstanding (mn): $5,535.0 / =
422.2</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Book Value/Share (Apr-2003): $1.9</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Price/Book Ratio: 6.8x</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Total Debt / Mkt. Capital: 10.1%</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Est. 5 Year EPS Growth: 20.0%</P></FONT><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#0000ff size=3D1>
<P align=3Dleft>Stock Data</P></B></FONT><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
size=3D1>
<P align=3Dleft>52-Week Range: $14.00-$4.59</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Symbol / Exchange: BEAS / NASDAQ</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Institutional Ownership-Vickers: 66.5%</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Brokers Covering (First Call): =
34</P></FONT><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D4>
<P align=3Dleft>Highlights:</P></B></FONT><FONT face=3DSymbol =
size=3D3>
<P align=3Dleft>• </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>We are=20
confident that BEA had a very good</P>
<P align=3Dleft>Q2 and should hit our revenue and EPS</P>
<P align=3Dleft>estimates of $243 ($126 million in license) =
and</P>
<P align=3Dleft>$0.07. Our checks indicate a healthy level of</P>
<P align=3Dleft>momentum in the market for BEA products</P>
<P align=3Dleft>given the 8.1 product launch.</P></B></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DSymbol size=3D3>
<P align=3Dleft>• </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>It is our=20
belief that close rates in the quarter</P>
<P align=3Dleft>were a little better than in a normal Q2, and</P>
<P align=3Dleft>the company should print results that reach</P>
<P align=3Dleft>the mid-to-high end of its license revenue</P>
<P align=3Dleft>forecast range of $126-$128 =
million.</P></B></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DSymbol size=3D3>
<P align=3Dleft>• </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>We=20
anticipate that management’s Q3 forecast</P>
<P align=3Dleft>will be upbeat with a forecast that captures</P>
<P align=3Dleft>our estimates and calls for both sequential =
and</P>
<P align=3Dleft>annual license revenue growth. For Q3 we are</P>
<P align=3Dleft>projecting $248 million in total revenue, $128</P>
<P align=3Dleft>million in license, and EPS of =
$0.08.</P></B></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DSymbol size=3D3>
<P align=3Dleft>• </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>Our=20
attendance at the WebLogic 8.1</P>
<P align=3Dleft>marketing launch this week re-confirmed our</P>
<P align=3Dleft>positive view that the company should benefit</P>
<P align=3Dleft>from the product cycle in the coming quarters,</P>
<P align=3Dleft>thus providing the potential for revenue</P>
<P align=3Dleft>outperformance.</P></B></FONT><FONT face=3DSymbol =
size=3D3>
<P align=3Dleft>• </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>We continue=20
to rate BEA Systems a Buy with</P>
<P align=3Dleft>a $15 price target. Our price target is based =
on</P>
<P align=3Dleft>a 35-40x P/E multiple on our FY 05 EPS</P>
<P align=3Dleft>estimate of $0.40, which is inline with the</P>
<P align=3Dleft>company’s peer group.</P></B></FONT><FONT =
face=3DSymbol=20
size=3D3>
<P align=3Dleft>• </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>Risks to the=20
stock include competition from</P>
<P align=3Dleft>IBM and Oracle, poor IT spending</P>
<P align=3Dleft>environment, a disappointing product cycle,</P>
<P align=3Dleft>and weak field=20
execution.</P></B></FONT><BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dpeten123@nc.rr.com =
href=3D"mailto:peten123@nc.rr.com">Pete</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, August 11, =
2003 5:16=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
BEAS?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I was looking at the BEAS chart =
and it=20
looks great - EXCEPT for the fact that the RS line topped on =
long=20
ago. Would this concern anybody here?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Thanks,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial=20
=
size=3D2>Peter</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCK=
QUOTE></BODY></HTML>
- ------=_NextPart_000_0055_01C360AA.77115FC0--
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Next Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] free real time quotes "Jonathan Lobatto"
Top of Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] BEAS? "joe"
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]