Re: [CANSLIM] BEAS?

From: "joe" <lakbossa@hotmail.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BEAS?
Date: Tue, 12 Aug 2003 08:30:56 -0400

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show me where an upgrade has made people money...please..you have no =
idea what motives merrill has for beas other than to maybe dump it.
  ----- Original Message -----=20
  From: Pete=20
  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  Sent: Tuesday, August 12, 2003 12:33 AM
  Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BEAS?


  Gene, where did you buy the first round?  the breakout at $7 in =
October?  I still think this stock is lagging significantly.  Should be =
interesting earnings come out Thurs.
  Peter
    ----- Original Message -----=20
    From: Gene Ricci=20
    To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
    Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 11:53 PM
    Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] BEAS?


    Peter, I plan to buy more BEAS when it breaks ~ 13.70 ...=20

    BEAS was upgraded to BUY and placed on Merrill Lynch Focus One list =
on 7/15. Here's a snapshot of Merrill's opinion on 8/7:
    Price: $13.11

    12-Month Price Objective: $15.00

    Date Established: 15-Jul-2003

    Estimates (Jan) 2003A 2004E 2005E

    EPS: $0.28 $0.30 $0.40

    P/E: 46.8x 43.7x 32.8x

    EPS Change (YoY): 7.1% 33.3%

    GAAP EPS: $0.20 $0.27 $0.37

    Consensus EPS: $0.31 $0.38

    (First Call: 19-Jun-2003)

    Q2 EPS (Jul): $0.06 $0.07

    Cash Flow/Share: $0.46 $0.48 $0.57

    Price/Cash Flow: 28.5x 27.3x 23.0x

    Dividend Rate: Nil Nil Nil

    Dividend Yield: Nil Nil Nil

    Opinion & Financial Data

    Investment Opinion: C-1-9

    Mkt. Value / Shares Outstanding (mn): $5,535.0 / 422.2

    Book Value/Share (Apr-2003): $1.9

    Price/Book Ratio: 6.8x

    Total Debt / Mkt. Capital: 10.1%

    Est. 5 Year EPS Growth: 20.0%

    Stock Data

    52-Week Range: $14.00-$4.59

    Symbol / Exchange: BEAS / NASDAQ

    Institutional Ownership-Vickers: 66.5%

    Brokers Covering (First Call): 34

    Highlights:

    . We are confident that BEA had a very good

    Q2 and should hit our revenue and EPS

    estimates of $243 ($126 million in license) and

    $0.07. Our checks indicate a healthy level of

    momentum in the market for BEA products

    given the 8.1 product launch.

    . It is our belief that close rates in the quarter

    were a little better than in a normal Q2, and

    the company should print results that reach

    the mid-to-high end of its license revenue

    forecast range of $126-$128 million.

    . We anticipate that management's Q3 forecast

    will be upbeat with a forecast that captures

    our estimates and calls for both sequential and

    annual license revenue growth. For Q3 we are

    projecting $248 million in total revenue, $128

    million in license, and EPS of $0.08.

    . Our attendance at the WebLogic 8.1

    marketing launch this week re-confirmed our

    positive view that the company should benefit

    from the product cycle in the coming quarters,

    thus providing the potential for revenue

    outperformance.

    . We continue to rate BEA Systems a Buy with

    a $15 price target. Our price target is based on

    a 35-40x P/E multiple on our FY 05 EPS

    estimate of $0.40, which is inline with the

    company's peer group.

    . Risks to the stock include competition from

    IBM and Oracle, poor IT spending

    environment, a disappointing product cycle,

    and weak field execution.




      ----- Original Message -----=20
      From: Pete=20
      To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
      Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 5:16 PM
      Subject: [CANSLIM] BEAS?


      I was looking at the BEAS chart and it looks great - EXCEPT for =
the fact that the RS line topped on long ago.  Would this concern =
anybody here?

      Thanks,

      Peter
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<DIV><FONT face=3DGeorgia color=3D#000080>show me where an upgrade has =
made people=20
money...please..you have no idea what motives merrill has for beas other =
than to=20
maybe dump it.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000080 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
  <A title=3Dpeten123@nc.rr.com =
href=3D"mailto:peten123@nc.rr.com">Pete</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
 </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, August 12, 2003 =
12:33=20
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
BEAS?</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Gene, where did you buy the first =
round?=20
  &nbsp;the breakout at $7 in October?&nbsp; I still think this stock is =
lagging=20
  significantly.&nbsp; Should be interesting earnings come out=20
  Thurs.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Peter</FONT></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
  style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV=20
    style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
    <A title=3Dgenr@swbell.net href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net">Gene =
Ricci</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
    =
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
    </DIV>
    <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, August 11, 2003 =
11:53=20
    PM</DIV>
    <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Fw: [CANSLIM] =
BEAS?</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Peter,&nbsp;I plan =
to&nbsp;buy&nbsp;more=20
    BEAS when it&nbsp;breaks ~ 13.70&nbsp;...&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">BEAS was upgraded to BUY and =
placed on=20
    Merrill Lynch Focus&nbsp;One list on 7/15. Here's a snapshot of =
Merrill's=20
    opinion on 8/7:<B><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></DIV>
    <DIV>
    <P align=3Dleft>Price: $13.11</P></B></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
    size=3D2>
    <P align=3Dleft>12-Month Price Objective: $15.00</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>Date Established: 15-Jul-2003</P></FONT><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
    color=3D#0000ff size=3D1>
    <P align=3Dleft>Estimates (Jan) 2003A 2004E =
2005E</P></B></FONT><FONT=20
    face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D1>
    <P align=3Dleft>EPS: $0.28 $0.30 $0.40</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>P/E: 46.8x 43.7x 32.8x</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>EPS Change (YoY): 7.1% 33.3%</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>GAAP EPS: $0.20 $0.27 $0.37</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>Consensus EPS: $0.31 $0.38</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>(First Call: 19-Jun-2003)</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>Q2 EPS (Jul): $0.06 $0.07</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>Cash Flow/Share: $0.46 $0.48 $0.57</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>Price/Cash Flow: 28.5x 27.3x 23.0x</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>Dividend Rate: Nil Nil Nil</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>Dividend Yield: Nil Nil Nil</P></FONT><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
    color=3D#0000ff size=3D1>
    <P align=3Dleft>Opinion &amp; Financial Data</P></B></FONT><FONT=20
    face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D1>
    <P align=3Dleft>Investment Opinion: C-1-9</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>Mkt. Value / Shares Outstanding (mn): $5,535.0 / =
422.2</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>Book Value/Share (Apr-2003): $1.9</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>Price/Book Ratio: 6.8x</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>Total Debt / Mkt. Capital: 10.1%</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>Est. 5 Year EPS Growth: 20.0%</P></FONT><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
    color=3D#0000ff size=3D1>
    <P align=3Dleft>Stock Data</P></B></FONT><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman" size=3D1>
    <P align=3Dleft>52-Week Range: $14.00-$4.59</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>Symbol / Exchange: BEAS / NASDAQ</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>Institutional Ownership-Vickers: 66.5%</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>Brokers Covering (First Call): 34</P></FONT><B><FONT =

    face=3DArial size=3D4>
    <P align=3Dleft>Highlights:</P></B></FONT><FONT face=3DSymbol =
size=3D3>
    <P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>We are=20
    confident that BEA had a very good</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>Q2 and should hit our revenue and EPS</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>estimates of $243 ($126 million in license) and</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>$0.07. Our checks indicate a healthy level of</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>momentum in the market for BEA products</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>given the 8.1 product launch.</P></B></FONT><FONT =
face=3DSymbol=20
    size=3D3>
    <P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>It is our=20
    belief that close rates in the quarter</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>were a little better than in a normal Q2, and</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>the company should print results that reach</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>the mid-to-high end of its license revenue</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>forecast range of $126-$128 =
million.</P></B></FONT><FONT=20
    face=3DSymbol size=3D3>
    <P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>We anticipate=20
    that management=92s Q3 forecast</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>will be upbeat with a forecast that captures</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>our estimates and calls for both sequential and</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>annual license revenue growth. For Q3 we are</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>projecting $248 million in total revenue, $128</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>million in license, and EPS of =
$0.08.</P></B></FONT><FONT=20
    face=3DSymbol size=3D3>
    <P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>Our attendance=20
    at the WebLogic 8.1</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>marketing launch this week re-confirmed our</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>positive view that the company should benefit</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>from the product cycle in the coming quarters,</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>thus providing the potential for revenue</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>outperformance.</P></B></FONT><FONT face=3DSymbol =
size=3D3>
    <P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>We continue to=20
    rate BEA Systems a Buy with</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>a $15 price target. Our price target is based on</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>a 35-40x P/E multiple on our FY 05 EPS</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>estimate of $0.40, which is inline with the</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>company=92s peer group.</P></B></FONT><FONT =
face=3DSymbol size=3D3>
    <P align=3Dleft>=95 </FONT><B><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>Risks to the=20
    stock include competition from</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>IBM and Oracle, poor IT spending</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>environment, a disappointing product cycle,</P>
    <P align=3Dleft>and weak field =
execution.</P></B></FONT><BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
    <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
    style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
      <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
      <DIV=20
      style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
      <A title=3Dpeten123@nc.rr.com =
href=3D"mailto:peten123@nc.rr.com">Pete</A>=20
      </DIV>
      <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
      title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
      =
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
      </DIV>
      <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, August 11, =
2003 5:16=20
      PM</DIV>
      <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
BEAS?</DIV>
      <DIV><BR></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I was looking at the BEAS chart =
and it looks=20
      great - EXCEPT for the fact that the RS line topped on long =
ago.&nbsp;=20
      Would this concern anybody here?</FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Thanks,</FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial=20
size=3D2>Peter</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY>=
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