Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "DMC197807" <dmc197807@comcast.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2003 09:42:14 -0700
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0107_01C36248.58055E20 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Ian, What I see here (putting aside the letter writers, pundits, etc.) is a = market which has extremely low volatility and which has gone nowhere but = sideways to down for about 8 weeks. If you pull up a daily on the SPX = you can see a double top and then a trailing off. The VIX chart is = extremely unusual in its low leveling off. It's like a market that has = been drugged. Will it break out to the topside or the bottomside? Or, more = dangerously, will it break out sharply to the topside to lure all the = little bugs into the spider's web and then break down like nobody's = business? I don't know, obviously, or I'd be filthy rich, but it seems = to me that we are in the inflection zone for something to happen. One thing I've learned is that it won't be a top until the bears have = been pretty much completely shaken out (not yet, imho), just as it's = almost never a great bottom until people are terrified to commit one = more dime to the market, in fact, they are exiting the market in droves. = July 2002 was a classic case of bulls just throwing in the towel and we = had a bottom. March 2000 was a classic case of bears (or just plain = logical thinkers) just giving up--there were articles about Warren = Buffet being washed up, Julian Robertson closed his fund. Since I don't see the bears giving up quite yet, and the bulls = complacent, I'm concerned that we may have some vicious spikes coming = our way, but in which order and which direction, I'm not sure. DMC ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 9:45 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Hi DMC: One thing I find a little ironic here is that most of the pundits (the = ones that I come across anyhow, clearly a non-scientific sample size) = appear to be bearish, because everyone is bullish. Doesn't that make = everyone really bearish, allowing us to continue to climb the wall of = worry? Cheers, Ian - ------=_NextPart_000_0107_01C36248.58055E20 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ian,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>What I see here (putting aside the = letter writers,=20 pundits, etc.) is a market which has extremely low volatility and which = has gone=20 nowhere but sideways to down for about 8 weeks. If you pull up a = daily on=20 the SPX you can see a double top and then a trailing off. The VIX = chart is=20 extremely unusual in its low leveling off. It's like a market that = has=20 been drugged.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Will it break out to the topside or the = bottomside? Or, more dangerously, will it break out sharply to the = topside=20 to lure all the little bugs into the spider's web and then break down = like=20 nobody's business? I don't know, obviously, or I'd be filthy rich, = but it=20 seems to me that we are in the inflection zone for something to=20 happen.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>One thing I've learned is that it won't = be a top=20 until the bears have been pretty much completely shaken out (not yet, = imho),=20 just as it's almost never a great bottom until people are terrified to = commit=20 one more dime to the market, in fact, they are exiting the market in=20 droves. July 2002 was a classic case of bulls just throwing in the = towel=20 and we had a bottom. March 2000 was a classic case of bears (or = just plain=20 logical thinkers) just giving up--there were articles about Warren = Buffet being=20 washed up, Julian Robertson closed his fund.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Since I don't see the bears giving up = quite yet,=20 and the bulls complacent, I'm concerned that we may have some vicious = spikes=20 coming our way, but in which order and which direction, I'm not=20 sure.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DMC</FONT></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> = </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, August 14, 2003 = 9:45=20 AM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] for = Short=20 Selling</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Hi DMC:</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>One thing I find a little ironic here is that most = of=20 the pundits (the ones that I come across anyhow, clearly a = non-scientific=20 sample size) appear to be bearish, because everyone is bullish. = Doesn't that=20 make everyone really bearish, allowing us to continue to climb the = wall of=20 worry?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Cheers,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial = size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_0107_01C36248.58055E20-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". 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