Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "DMC197807" <dmc197807@comcast.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2003 12:29:31 -0700
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Rolf:
Double bottom bottoms? I'm confused, since I was talking about a single =
double top in this sideways market. The double top in the SPX is =
definitely on a shorter time frame: I have a top at 1015.3 around June =
10 and 1015.4 around July 14.
The last double bottoms in SPX were July and September last year. I =
don't see CWH here, but I'm enormously unimaginative.
Easier to see (or pre-imagine, as I like to say) is the potential for =
this to melt down, big picture, into a 5-step EW down with 1015 as the =
new top, and the new bottom somewhere in the 500s or 600s. In other =
words, instead of us registering The Bottom in 2002, we would simply =
have registered The Bottom of 2002, to be eclipsed by The Bottom =
(September? November? of 2003)???
The EW folk would see (I think) a top at 1315, a leg down to 944 (1), a =
leg up to 1177 (2), a leg down to 775 (3), a leg up to 965 (4) and the =
last leg down to 768 (5).
Now, the countertrend might be a leg up to 960 (1), down to 800 (2) and =
up to 1015 (3).
And now for the next leg. If the Ewavers are right, time for a big down =
leg (250-300 pts?), an up leg (120 pts?) and then the crusher down =
350-400 pts or so??
I don't necessarily believe in this stuff, but if you plot a zigzag on =
the big markets you can certainly see some patterns of waves in some =
time frames.
I don't want to be like the Psychic Networks owner who appeared in =
Bankruptcy Court and had to deal with the question, "Well, why didn't =
you see this coming?"
DMC
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Rolf Hertenstein=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 11:18 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Hey DMC -
What are the dates of your double-bottom bottoms? My guess is you're =
looking at a shorter timeframe (the 8 weeks you mention?) than I am.
I was looking at a daily SP-500 chart over 2 years and can imagine an =
18-month CWH. Left-side of cup about March 2002, handle last 8 weeks. =
DOW and NASD look similar.
Problems with this picture:
1. Longer-term view (back to 1999 or so) has the left side cup as a =
blip on a longer downtrend.
2. Even if it is a CWH, doesn't mean it'll resolve to the upside.
Rolf
----- Original Message -----=20
From: DMC197807=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 10:42 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Ian,
What I see here (putting aside the letter writers, pundits, etc.) is =
a market which has extremely low volatility and which has gone nowhere =
but sideways to down for about 8 weeks. If you pull up a daily on the =
SPX you can see a double top and then a trailing off. The VIX chart is =
extremely unusual in its low leveling off. It's like a market that has =
been drugged.
Will it break out to the topside or the bottomside? Or, more =
dangerously, will it break out sharply to the topside to lure all the =
little bugs into the spider's web and then break down like nobody's =
business? I don't know, obviously, or I'd be filthy rich, but it seems =
to me that we are in the inflection zone for something to happen.
One thing I've learned is that it won't be a top until the bears =
have been pretty much completely shaken out (not yet, imho), just as =
it's almost never a great bottom until people are terrified to commit =
one more dime to the market, in fact, they are exiting the market in =
droves. July 2002 was a classic case of bulls just throwing in the =
towel and we had a bottom. March 2000 was a classic case of bears (or =
just plain logical thinkers) just giving up--there were articles about =
Warren Buffet being washed up, Julian Robertson closed his fund.
Since I don't see the bears giving up quite yet, and the bulls =
complacent, I'm concerned that we may have some vicious spikes coming =
our way, but in which order and which direction, I'm not sure.
DMC
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ian=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 9:45 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Hi DMC:
One thing I find a little ironic here is that most of the pundits =
(the ones that I come across anyhow, clearly a non-scientific sample =
size) appear to be bearish, because everyone is bullish. Doesn't that =
make everyone really bearish, allowing us to continue to climb the wall =
of worry?
Cheers,
Ian
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Rolf:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Double bottom bottoms? I'm =
confused, since I=20
was talking about a single double top in this sideways market. The =
double=20
top in the SPX is definitely on a shorter time frame: I have a top =
at=20
1015.3 around June 10 and 1015.4 around July 14.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>The last double bottoms in SPX were =
July and=20
September last year. I don't see CWH here, but I'm enormously=20
unimaginative.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Easier to see (or pre-imagine, as I =
like to say) is=20
the potential for this to melt down, big picture, into a 5-step EW down =
with=20
1015 as the new top, and the new bottom somewhere in the 500s or =
600s. In=20
other words, instead of us registering The Bottom in 2002, we would =
simply have=20
registered The Bottom of 2002, to be eclipsed by The Bottom =
(September? =20
November? of 2003)???</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>The EW folk would see (I think) a top =
at 1315, a=20
leg down to 944 (1), a leg up to 1177 (2), a leg down to 775 (3), a leg =
up to=20
965 (4) and the last leg down to 768 (5).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Now, the countertrend might be a leg up =
to 960 (1),=20
down to 800 (2) and up to 1015 (3).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>And now for the next leg. If the =
Ewavers are=20
right, time for a big down leg (250-300 pts?), an up leg (120 pts?) and =
then the=20
crusher down 350-400 pts or so??</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I don't necessarily believe in this =
stuff, but if=20
you plot a zigzag on the big markets you can certainly see some patterns =
of=20
waves in some time frames.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I don't want to be like the Psychic =
Networks owner=20
who appeared in Bankruptcy Court and had to deal with the question, =
"Well, why=20
didn't you see this coming?"</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DMC</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Drolfh@mindspring.com =
href=3D"mailto:rolfh@mindspring.com">Rolf=20
Hertenstein</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, August 14, 2003 =
11:18=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] for =
Short=20
Selling</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Hey DMC -</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>What are the dates of your =
double-bottom=20
bottoms? My guess is you're looking at a shorter timeframe (the =
8 weeks=20
you mention?) than I am.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I was looking at a daily SP-500 =
chart over 2=20
years and can imagine an 18-month CWH. Left-side of cup about March =
2002,=20
handle last 8 weeks. DOW and NASD look =
similar.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Problems with this =
picture:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>1. Longer-term view (back to 1999 or =
so) has the=20
left side cup as a blip on a longer downtrend.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>2. Even if it is a CWH, doesn't mean =
it'll=20
resolve to the upside.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2> Rolf</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddmc197807@comcast.net=20
href=3D"mailto:dmc197807@comcast.net">DMC197807</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, August 14, =
2003 10:42=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] for =
Short=20
Selling</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT><FONT face=3DArial=20
size=3D2></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ian,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>What I see here (putting aside the =
letter=20
writers, pundits, etc.) is a market which has extremely low =
volatility and=20
which has gone nowhere but sideways to down for about 8 weeks. =
If you=20
pull up a daily on the SPX you can see a double top and then a =
trailing=20
off. The VIX chart is extremely unusual in its low leveling =
off. =20
It's like a market that has been drugged.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Will it break out to the topside or =
the=20
bottomside? Or, more dangerously, will it break out sharply to =
the=20
topside to lure all the little bugs into the spider's web and then =
break=20
down like nobody's business? I don't know, obviously, or I'd =
be filthy=20
rich, but it seems to me that we are in the inflection zone for =
something to=20
happen.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>One thing I've learned is that it =
won't be a=20
top until the bears have been pretty much completely shaken out (not =
yet,=20
imho), just as it's almost never a great bottom until people are =
terrified=20
to commit one more dime to the market, in fact, they are exiting the =
market=20
in droves. July 2002 was a classic case of bulls just throwing =
in the=20
towel and we had a bottom. March 2000 was a classic case of =
bears (or=20
just plain logical thinkers) just giving up--there were articles =
about=20
Warren Buffet being washed up, Julian Robertson closed his=20
fund.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Since I don't see the bears giving =
up quite=20
yet, and the bulls complacent, I'm concerned that we may have some =
vicious=20
spikes coming our way, but in which order and which direction, I'm =
not=20
sure.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DMC</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, August 14, =
2003 9:45=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] for =
Short=20
Selling</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Hi DMC:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>One thing I find a little ironic here is that =
most of=20
the pundits (the ones that I come across anyhow, clearly a=20
non-scientific sample size) appear to be bearish, because everyone =
is=20
bullish. Doesn't that make everyone really bearish, allowing us to =
continue to climb the wall of worry?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Cheers,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial=20
size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY=
></HTML>
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