Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Rolf Hertenstein" <rolfh@mindspring.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2003 13:51:47 -0600
Previous Article (by Date): Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling "DMC197807"
Top of Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling "Rolf Hertenstein"
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
- ------=_NextPart_000_0482_01C3626B.34872280
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Sorry, I was asking for the two bottoms to the double bottom. BUT, you =
did say double TOP to the SP-500 in your original post. Amazing how the =
mind works. I'd been reading about double bottoms earlier today in =
another context, so, even though I read your original post twice, my =
mind saw 'double bottom'. I should go outside for a couple of days.
The 'virtual' CWH I see has a left cup March 2002, spiky bottom with =
lows July 2002, October 2002, and March 2003, right-hand cup June 2003, =
and handle since. But I always have had an over-active imagination - =
the handle caught my eye first.
The EW stuff is interesting to ponder but I do try to keep such =
predictions in my (failing) mind's back burner. In the past I've acted =
out of phase with the market in anticipation of forecast moves. Took me =
a while to stop that, and I've done better since.
Thanks for the clarification.
Rolf
----- Original Message -----=20
From: DMC197807=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 1:29 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Rolf:
Double bottom bottoms? I'm confused, since I was talking about a =
single double top in this sideways market. The double top in the SPX is =
definitely on a shorter time frame: I have a top at 1015.3 around June =
10 and 1015.4 around July 14.
The last double bottoms in SPX were July and September last year. I =
don't see CWH here, but I'm enormously unimaginative.
Easier to see (or pre-imagine, as I like to say) is the potential for =
this to melt down, big picture, into a 5-step EW down with 1015 as the =
new top, and the new bottom somewhere in the 500s or 600s. In other =
words, instead of us registering The Bottom in 2002, we would simply =
have registered The Bottom of 2002, to be eclipsed by The Bottom =
(September? November? of 2003)???
The EW folk would see (I think) a top at 1315, a leg down to 944 (1), =
a leg up to 1177 (2), a leg down to 775 (3), a leg up to 965 (4) and the =
last leg down to 768 (5).
Now, the countertrend might be a leg up to 960 (1), down to 800 (2) =
and up to 1015 (3).
And now for the next leg. If the Ewavers are right, time for a big =
down leg (250-300 pts?), an up leg (120 pts?) and then the crusher down =
350-400 pts or so??
I don't necessarily believe in this stuff, but if you plot a zigzag on =
the big markets you can certainly see some patterns of waves in some =
time frames.
I don't want to be like the Psychic Networks owner who appeared in =
Bankruptcy Court and had to deal with the question, "Well, why didn't =
you see this coming?"
DMC
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Rolf Hertenstein=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 11:18 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Hey DMC -
What are the dates of your double-bottom bottoms? My guess is =
you're looking at a shorter timeframe (the 8 weeks you mention?) than I =
am.
I was looking at a daily SP-500 chart over 2 years and can imagine =
an 18-month CWH. Left-side of cup about March 2002, handle last 8 weeks. =
DOW and NASD look similar.
Problems with this picture:
1. Longer-term view (back to 1999 or so) has the left side cup as a =
blip on a longer downtrend.
2. Even if it is a CWH, doesn't mean it'll resolve to the upside.
Rolf
----- Original Message -----=20
From: DMC197807=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 10:42 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Ian,
What I see here (putting aside the letter writers, pundits, etc.) =
is a market which has extremely low volatility and which has gone =
nowhere but sideways to down for about 8 weeks. If you pull up a daily =
on the SPX you can see a double top and then a trailing off. The VIX =
chart is extremely unusual in its low leveling off. It's like a market =
that has been drugged.
Will it break out to the topside or the bottomside? Or, more =
dangerously, will it break out sharply to the topside to lure all the =
little bugs into the spider's web and then break down like nobody's =
business? I don't know, obviously, or I'd be filthy rich, but it seems =
to me that we are in the inflection zone for something to happen.
One thing I've learned is that it won't be a top until the bears =
have been pretty much completely shaken out (not yet, imho), just as =
it's almost never a great bottom until people are terrified to commit =
one more dime to the market, in fact, they are exiting the market in =
droves. July 2002 was a classic case of bulls just throwing in the =
towel and we had a bottom. March 2000 was a classic case of bears (or =
just plain logical thinkers) just giving up--there were articles about =
Warren Buffet being washed up, Julian Robertson closed his fund.
Since I don't see the bears giving up quite yet, and the bulls =
complacent, I'm concerned that we may have some vicious spikes coming =
our way, but in which order and which direction, I'm not sure.
DMC
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ian=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 9:45 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Hi DMC:
One thing I find a little ironic here is that most of the =
pundits (the ones that I come across anyhow, clearly a non-scientific =
sample size) appear to be bearish, because everyone is bullish. Doesn't =
that make everyone really bearish, allowing us to continue to climb the =
wall of worry?
Cheers,
Ian
- ------=_NextPart_000_0482_01C3626B.34872280
Content-Type: text/html;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Diso-8859-1">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4134.600" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Sorry, I was asking for the two bottoms =
to the=20
double bottom. BUT, you did say double TOP to the SP-500 in your =
original=20
post. Amazing how the mind works. I'd been reading about =
double=20
bottoms earlier today in another context, so, even though I read your =
original=20
post twice, my mind saw 'double bottom'. I should go outside for a =
couple=20
of days.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>The 'virtual' CWH I see has a left cup =
March 2002,=20
spiky bottom with lows July 2002, October 2002, and March 2003, =
right-hand cup=20
June 2003, and handle since. But I always have had an over-active=20
imagination - the handle caught my eye first.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>The EW stuff is interesting to ponder =
but I do try=20
to keep such predictions in my (failing) mind's back burner. In =
the past=20
I've acted out of phase with the market in anticipation of forecast =
moves. =20
Took me a while to stop that, and I've done better since.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Thanks for the =
clarification.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2> Rolf</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddmc197807@comcast.net=20
href=3D"mailto:dmc197807@comcast.net">DMC197807</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, August 14, 2003 =
1:29=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] for =
Short=20
Selling</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2></FONT><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT><FONT face=3DArial=20
size=3D2></FONT><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Rolf:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Double bottom bottoms? I'm =
confused, since=20
I was talking about a single double top in this sideways market. =
The=20
double top in the SPX is definitely on a shorter time frame: I =
have a=20
top at 1015.3 around June 10 and 1015.4 around July 14.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>The last double bottoms in SPX were =
July and=20
September last year. I don't see CWH here, but I'm enormously=20
unimaginative.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Easier to see (or pre-imagine, as I =
like to say)=20
is the potential for this to melt down, big picture, into a 5-step EW =
down=20
with 1015 as the new top, and the new bottom somewhere in the 500s or=20
600s. In other words, instead of us registering The Bottom in =
2002, we=20
would simply have registered The Bottom of 2002, to be eclipsed by The =
Bottom=20
(September? November? of 2003)???</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>The EW folk would see (I think) a top =
at 1315, a=20
leg down to 944 (1), a leg up to 1177 (2), a leg down to 775 (3), a =
leg up to=20
965 (4) and the last leg down to 768 (5).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Now, the countertrend might be a leg =
up to 960=20
(1), down to 800 (2) and up to 1015 (3).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>And now for the next leg. If =
the Ewavers=20
are right, time for a big down leg (250-300 pts?), an up leg (120 =
pts?) and=20
then the crusher down 350-400 pts or so??</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I don't necessarily believe in this =
stuff, but if=20
you plot a zigzag on the big markets you can certainly see some =
patterns of=20
waves in some time frames.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I don't want to be like the Psychic =
Networks=20
owner who appeared in Bankruptcy Court and had to deal with the =
question,=20
"Well, why didn't you see this coming?"</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DMC</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Drolfh@mindspring.com =
href=3D"mailto:rolfh@mindspring.com">Rolf=20
Hertenstein</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, August 14, =
2003 11:18=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] for =
Short=20
Selling</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT><FONT face=3DArial=20
size=3D2></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Hey DMC -</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>What are the dates of your =
double-bottom=20
bottoms? My guess is you're looking at a shorter timeframe =
(the 8=20
weeks you mention?) than I am.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I was looking at a daily =
SP-500 chart over=20
2 years and can imagine an 18-month CWH. Left-side of cup about =
March 2002,=20
handle last 8 weeks. DOW and NASD look =
similar.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Problems with this =
picture:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>1. Longer-term view (back to 1999 =
or so) has=20
the left side cup as a blip on a longer =
downtrend.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>2. Even if it is a CWH, doesn't =
mean it'll=20
resolve to the upside.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2> Rolf</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddmc197807@comcast.net=20
href=3D"mailto:dmc197807@comcast.net">DMC197807</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, August 14, =
2003 10:42=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] for =
Short=20
Selling</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ian,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>What I see here (putting aside =
the letter=20
writers, pundits, etc.) is a market which has extremely low =
volatility and=20
which has gone nowhere but sideways to down for about 8 =
weeks. If=20
you pull up a daily on the SPX you can see a double top and then a =
trailing off. The VIX chart is extremely unusual in its low =
leveling=20
off. It's like a market that has been drugged.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Will it break out to the topside =
or the=20
bottomside? Or, more dangerously, will it break out sharply =
to the=20
topside to lure all the little bugs into the spider's web and then =
break=20
down like nobody's business? I don't know, obviously, or I'd =
be=20
filthy rich, but it seems to me that we are in the inflection zone =
for=20
something to happen.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>One thing I've learned is that it =
won't be a=20
top until the bears have been pretty much completely shaken out =
(not yet,=20
imho), just as it's almost never a great bottom until people are =
terrified=20
to commit one more dime to the market, in fact, they are exiting =
the=20
market in droves. July 2002 was a classic case of bulls just =
throwing in the towel and we had a bottom. March 2000 was a =
classic=20
case of bears (or just plain logical thinkers) just giving =
up--there were=20
articles about Warren Buffet being washed up, Julian Robertson =
closed his=20
fund.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Since I don't see the bears =
giving up quite=20
yet, and the bulls complacent, I'm concerned that we may have some =
vicious=20
spikes coming our way, but in which order and which direction, I'm =
not=20
sure.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DMC</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, August =
14, 2003=20
9:45 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
for Short=20
Selling</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Hi DMC:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>One thing I find a little ironic here is =
that most of=20
the pundits (the ones that I come across anyhow, clearly a=20
non-scientific sample size) appear to be bearish, because =
everyone is=20
bullish. Doesn't that make everyone really bearish, allowing us =
to=20
continue to climb the wall of worry?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Cheers,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial=20
=
size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOC=
KQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
- ------=_NextPart_000_0482_01C3626B.34872280--
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Previous Article (by Date): Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling "DMC197807"
Top of Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling "Rolf Hertenstein"
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]