Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Rolf Hertenstein" <rolfh@mindspring.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2003 12:18:26 -0600
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Hey DMC -
What are the dates of your double-bottom bottoms? My guess is you're =
looking at a shorter timeframe (the 8 weeks you mention?) than I am.
I was looking at a daily SP-500 chart over 2 years and can imagine an =
18-month CWH. Left-side of cup about March 2002, handle last 8 weeks. =
DOW and NASD look similar.
Problems with this picture:
1. Longer-term view (back to 1999 or so) has the left side cup as a blip =
on a longer downtrend.
2. Even if it is a CWH, doesn't mean it'll resolve to the upside.
Rolf
----- Original Message -----=20
From: DMC197807=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 10:42 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Ian,
What I see here (putting aside the letter writers, pundits, etc.) is a =
market which has extremely low volatility and which has gone nowhere but =
sideways to down for about 8 weeks. If you pull up a daily on the SPX =
you can see a double top and then a trailing off. The VIX chart is =
extremely unusual in its low leveling off. It's like a market that has =
been drugged.
Will it break out to the topside or the bottomside? Or, more =
dangerously, will it break out sharply to the topside to lure all the =
little bugs into the spider's web and then break down like nobody's =
business? I don't know, obviously, or I'd be filthy rich, but it seems =
to me that we are in the inflection zone for something to happen.
One thing I've learned is that it won't be a top until the bears have =
been pretty much completely shaken out (not yet, imho), just as it's =
almost never a great bottom until people are terrified to commit one =
more dime to the market, in fact, they are exiting the market in droves. =
July 2002 was a classic case of bulls just throwing in the towel and we =
had a bottom. March 2000 was a classic case of bears (or just plain =
logical thinkers) just giving up--there were articles about Warren =
Buffet being washed up, Julian Robertson closed his fund.
Since I don't see the bears giving up quite yet, and the bulls =
complacent, I'm concerned that we may have some vicious spikes coming =
our way, but in which order and which direction, I'm not sure.
DMC
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ian=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 9:45 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling
Hi DMC:
One thing I find a little ironic here is that most of the pundits =
(the ones that I come across anyhow, clearly a non-scientific sample =
size) appear to be bearish, because everyone is bullish. Doesn't that =
make everyone really bearish, allowing us to continue to climb the wall =
of worry?
Cheers,
Ian
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<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Hey DMC -</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>What are the dates of your =
double-bottom=20
bottoms? My guess is you're looking at a shorter timeframe (the 8 =
weeks=20
you mention?) than I am.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I was looking at a daily SP-500 =
chart over 2=20
years and can imagine an 18-month CWH. Left-side of cup about March =
2002, handle=20
last 8 weeks. DOW and NASD look similar.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Problems with this =
picture:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>1. Longer-term view (back to 1999 or =
so) has the=20
left side cup as a blip on a longer downtrend.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>2. Even if it is a CWH, doesn't mean =
it'll resolve=20
to the upside.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2> Rolf</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddmc197807@comcast.net=20
href=3D"mailto:dmc197807@comcast.net">DMC197807</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, August 14, 2003 =
10:42=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] for =
Short=20
Selling</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ian,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>What I see here (putting aside the =
letter=20
writers, pundits, etc.) is a market which has extremely low volatility =
and=20
which has gone nowhere but sideways to down for about 8 weeks. =
If you=20
pull up a daily on the SPX you can see a double top and then a =
trailing=20
off. The VIX chart is extremely unusual in its low leveling =
off. =20
It's like a market that has been drugged.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Will it break out to the topside or =
the=20
bottomside? Or, more dangerously, will it break out sharply to =
the=20
topside to lure all the little bugs into the spider's web and then =
break down=20
like nobody's business? I don't know, obviously, or I'd be =
filthy rich,=20
but it seems to me that we are in the inflection zone for something to =
happen.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>One thing I've learned is that it =
won't be a top=20
until the bears have been pretty much completely shaken out (not yet, =
imho),=20
just as it's almost never a great bottom until people are terrified to =
commit=20
one more dime to the market, in fact, they are exiting the market in=20
droves. July 2002 was a classic case of bulls just throwing in =
the towel=20
and we had a bottom. March 2000 was a classic case of bears (or =
just=20
plain logical thinkers) just giving up--there were articles about =
Warren=20
Buffet being washed up, Julian Robertson closed his fund.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Since I don't see the bears giving up =
quite yet,=20
and the bulls complacent, I'm concerned that we may have some vicious =
spikes=20
coming our way, but in which order and which direction, I'm not=20
sure.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DMC</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, August 14, =
2003 9:45=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] for =
Short=20
Selling</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Hi DMC:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>One thing I find a little ironic here is that =
most of=20
the pundits (the ones that I come across anyhow, clearly a=20
non-scientific sample size) appear to be bearish, because everyone =
is=20
bullish. Doesn't that make everyone really bearish, allowing us to =
continue=20
to climb the wall of worry?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Cheers,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial=20
size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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