RE: [CANSLIM] LF - Frustration! Could I have gotten in yesterday?

From: "Mike Gibbons" <mike@proactech.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] LF - Frustration! Could I have gotten in yesterday?
Date: Wed, 20 Aug 2003 12:05:03 -1000
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Top of Thread: RE: [CANSLIM] LF - Frustration! Could I have gotten in yesterday? michael_niemotka@baxter.com
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Hi Mike,

As I see it, there are two components to a breakout - price and volume.
There is certainly room for debate over what period the volume must be
sustained to qualify for the 150% of adv - is it the exact day of the
breakout attempt or could the volume come in over several days? So provided
a stock closes above it's pivot on less than 150% volume, it could be called
a weak breakout which may or may not be sustained over the next few days. We
currently put a strict interpretation on the breakout rule and call it a
failed breakout if the price AND volume criteria are not met.

I feel there is less room for debate over the price action. Today's intraday
high was above the previous pivot but it closed below indicating that the
sellers had the upper hand at the end of the day. Because the intraday high
was above the old pivot, a new pivot was set and I think it's appropriate to
consider any future action in relation to that new pivot rather than the old
one.

Regardless of these somewhat arcane issues, it seems to me that the current
price/volume action of LF is volatile and while obviously good profits can
be had, they are at a high risk. I have a low risk tolerance and would avoid
it - I've been whipsawed out of this one before!

Aloha,

Mike Gibbons
http://www.proactech.com


- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of
michael_niemotka@baxter.com
Sent: Wednesday, August 20, 2003 11:25 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] LF - Frustration! Could I have gotten in
yesterday?



Mike,

I understand that the way you described it is how the algorithm at
breakoutwatch will watch the chart, but from a human eye perspective, it
could be possible that the breakout will be sustained tomorrow.
If it is again on high volume, would it not offer a valid entry point? I am
speaking in a strictly WON interpretation, but of course I am going from
memory here, and it is the end of a long day.....
Did you make your software handle a failed breakout in this fashion because
of backtesting, or your interpretation of WON rules.

Keep up the great work.

Mike

Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com



                    "Mike Gibbons"
                    <mike@proactech.com>         To:
canslim@lists.xmission.com
                    Sent by:                     cc:
                    owner-canslim@lists.xm       Subject:     RE: [CANSLIM]
LF - Frustration! Could I have gotten in
                    ission.com                    yesterday?


                    08/20/2003 03:41 PM
                    Please respond to
                    canslim






LF failed to sustain its move above it's pivot point of $34.77 set on 6/18
today.

The effect of this is that has now set a new pivot point of today's high of
$34.99, with the left side of the cup unchanged at $35.70 on 12/03/02. The
next few days will show if it forms a new handle and presents another valid
entry point. If it were to do so, the action in the right side of the cup
leading up to the new pivot point would not seem to favor a strong breakout
from the new pivot point.

Aloha,

Mike Gibbons
http://www.proactech.com


- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of
michael_niemotka@baxter.com
Sent: Wednesday, August 20, 2003 10:16 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] LF - Frustration! Could I have gotten in
yesterday?



I personally hate watching something like the LF scenario, and having to
make the choice to sell off a stock that may be doing okay, that is giving
no sell signs, in order to free up capital to make the purchase.  Then of
course, the new stock reverses, and the one you sold takes off to the
sky.....

Thanks for letting me hop on the "things that frustrate investors"
bandwagon.  You Texans sure know how to draw a wagon train!  :)

Mike

Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com



                    Tomas
                    <tomas986@yahoo.com>         To:
canslim@lists.xmission.com
                    Sent by:                     cc:
                    owner-canslim@lists.xm       Subject:     RE: [CANSLIM]
LF - Frustration! Could I have gotten in
                    ission.com                    yesterday?


                    08/20/2003 03:01 PM
                    Please respond to
                    canslim






Kelly,

Sounds like you are asking if there is any way we
could figure out a way to predict the future.  :).

j/k.

In any case, I know how you feel.  I think everyone
here has been in that situation at one time or
another, and probably more times.  Actually, it
happens to me a few times the last few months.  Been
eyeing a stock for a long time, and seeing it about to
BO.  Then it BO with a %10+ price.  Then I just jump
up and down and curse at the air.  :).

Look at the bright side, it is still withing the entry
point.


Your Fellow Texan,
tomas


- --- michael_niemotka@baxter.com wrote:
>
> Brad,
>
> I'm sorry, I meant to say 8/14 NOT 7/14.   Sorry
> about that.
>
> Mike
>
>
> Mike Niemotka , PE
> Sr. Principal Engineer
> Baxter Healthcare Corporation
> Route 120 & Wilson Road
> Round Lake, IL 60073
> Tel (847) 270-4075
> Fax (847) 270-4525
> michael_niemotka@baxter.com
>
>
>
>
>
>                     bflauaus
>
>
>                     <bflauaus@swbell.net>        To:
>     canslim@lists.xmission.com
>
>                     Sent by:                     cc:
>
>
>                     owner-canslim@lists.xm
> Subject:     RE: [CANSLIM] LF - Frustration! Could I
> have gotten in
>                     ission.com
> yesterday?
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>                     08/20/2003 02:48 PM
>
>
>                     Please respond to
>
>
>                     canslim
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Mike,
>
> I looked at the LF on 7/14 and cannot identify the
> MACD crossover.  I see
> x-overs on the 8th and 28th, but not the 14th.
>
> Am I missing something here?  I am using MACD(12,26)
> and MACD EMA(9).
>
> Brad
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf
> Of
> michael_niemotka@baxter.com
> Sent: Wednesday, August 20, 2003 1:27 PM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LF - Frustration! Could I
> have gotten in
> yesterday?
>
>
>
> Kelly,
>
> I have also been watching LF.
> I would however, argue that the pivot point is at
> $34.77 (high on 6/18),
> and that even though it would be nice to have the
> 9+% gain from today, on
> top of any future profits, if you are following
> CANSLIM then you wait for
> high vol breakout above the pivot.  (That could
> still happen today, since
> it was above 34.77 intraday).
>
> As far as technical indicators, on 7/14 the MACD
> crossed over the signal
> line, which some people take as a buy sign. I have
> been checking this
> signal as a secondary confirmation when I see a
> breakout occurring, but
> have not done extensive backtesting on this.
>
> I know how you feel when you see a huge single day
> gain on a stock that you
> are willing to purchase, but if you choose to enter
> a position prior to a
> breakout, you do so at addition risk.
>
> You just have to decide how the risk reward ratio
> fits into your personal
> style.
>
> Mike
>
> Mike Niemotka , PE
> Sr. Principal Engineer
> Baxter Healthcare Corporation
> Route 120 & Wilson Road
> Round Lake, IL 60073
> Tel (847) 270-4075
> Fax (847) 270-4525
> michael_niemotka@baxter.com
>
>
>
>                     "Kelly Short"
>                     <kelly.short@fw.us.neo       To:
> canslim@lists.xmission.com
>                     ris.com>                     cc:
>                     Sent by:
> Subject:     [CANSLIM] LF
> -
> Frustration! Could I have gotten in yesterday?
>                     owner-canslim@lists.xm
>                     ission.com
>
>
>                     08/20/2003 01:03 PM
>                     Please respond to
>                     canslim
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Folks, (that's Texan for "Everyone")
>
> LF has been on my watch list and I was awaiting an
> alert from my
> breakoutwatch.com subscription which if I had
> received I was planning to
> purchase it. Today, LF broke out and by the time I
> was able to check the
> breakout alert and stock action it was already up 9%
> for the day, but not
> yet above the breakout price. I could have gotten
> in, and might still do
> that tomorrow if it pulls back, but I am frustrated
> that a stock, on my
> watch list, which I was willing to purchase, would
> run up so much before I
> could do anything about it. Therefore, I pose the
> following question:
>
> Given the action of LF (see attached chart) are
> there any technical
> indicators that could have notified me **yesterday**
> that this stock was
> going to rocket off today? Is it reasonable to
> believe I could have bought
> the stock yesterday to participate in today's action
> and still be following
> CANSLIM rules? I would greatly appreciate anyone's
> advice on this.
>
> Frustrated Texan,
>
> Kelly
> (See attached file: LF.gif)
>
>
>
> -
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>
>
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>
>
>
>
>
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