Re: [CANSLIM] negatives of CANSLIM


From: "Jeff Mulder" <jeff@mulder.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] negatives of CANSLIM
Date: Thu, 21 Aug 2003 19:53:43 -0400

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<< What about exiting, do you think a percentage exit is ok to use?  I
was thinking more about moving exits that deal with volatility perhaps
some multiple of the ATR. >>

Percentage exits and volatility exits are both OK to use.  Which is the
better method?  That depends on the investor and his/her system.  The
best method may be neither of these exit strategies, or a combination of
both of them.

You wouldn't say that one automobile model is best for everybody who
drives.  Likewise, one exit strategy is not best for all investors, or
even all CANSLIM investors.  The strategy must be compatible with the
investor, otherwise he/she might override it at just the wrong time.
The strategy must also be compatible with the overall system employed. =20

You are drawn to a volatility-based exit strategy, and that certainly is
compatible with CANSLIM.  You may want to test the strategy before using
it, so you learn how various volatility parameters perform.  If, for
example, you get stopped out for losses on your first five trades,
you'll want to know if this is expected within your system or an
indication you're using an unprofitable system.

Below, I've pasted a recently-published exit strategy written by someone
using a CANSLIM-based system.  It's an example of how someone can
customize percentage exits to fit himself and his system. =20

- - Jeff

The second part of this note regards when to sell. It is said this is
most important part of being a Trader, yet if you pick bad stocks in the
first place, sell criteria will only minimize your losses and not
maximize your gains. Still it is so important to have exit criteria. It
may not be perfect but the key here is to remove emotion from your
decision. If the criteria is not working then change it, but at least
establish one from the beginning - that is know at what price you will
place a Sell. I will use violation of obvious support levels and also
high volume down days, but what I seem to use the most is a formula that
calculates either a maximum loss or else a minimum gain if there is a
positive gain that existed. I first start with how much I am willing to
let a stock price drop from my buy price. There are several suggestions
out there, but I use 13% as stocks I buy tend to be a little more
volatile. The second sell point reference is I want at least a 3% gain
if the stock made it up to 10%. This may mean selling a little early in
a Bull market, but since there is always another stock out there taking
in a small gain is okay with me rather than risking a loss. In between
the 13% loss and the 3% gain I calculate another value. That is if a
stock gains 7% and then drops I would sell on a linearly adjusted value
between the 13% loss and the 3% gain. Finally my formula then looks at
Gains over 10%. Here, if the stock makes it to a 100% Gain I wish to at
least hold onto 75% of that and again a linearly adjusted amount between
the 10% and 100% value. My spreadsheet is programmed to tell me when to
sell and without any emotion I do so. The positive point of any sell is
this opens up funds for another stock to buy which is off its high yet
makes the criteria above. I do not use Stop Loss Orders, only will sell
at the next open if my criteria is met. The big reason is that It takes
too much time to adjust orders as the price moves up, but also it does
avoid getting hit on a mid day correction.
  ----- Original Message -----=20
  From: Jeff Henderson=20
  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  Sent: Wednesday, August 20, 2003 7:07 AM
  Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] negatives of CANSLIM


  Jeff,

  =20

  Great point, thanks!  What about exiting, do you think a percentage =
exit is ok to use?  I was thinking more about moving exits that deal =
with volatility perhaps some multiple of the ATR.

  =20

  -----Original Message-----
  From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Jeff Mulder
  Sent: Tuesday, August 19, 2003 10:35 PM
  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
  Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] negatives of CANSLIM

  =20

  << Also, as far as using WON's entry signals, specifically the chart =
patterns, I will quote Tharp from his book, Trade your way to Financial =
Freedom re:Chart patterns in general "However, such patterns are very =
difficult to computerize and thus test.  In addition when people do test =
these various patterns, they do not find anyevidence that they increase =
the reliability of entry signals beyond the 50 percent level."  I do not =
doubt WON's methods, but I believe that skepticism is healthy and that =
is beneficial to discuss potential flaws in a system. >>

  =20

  Your paragraph above uses a quote from Van Tharp's book to suggest =
that a reliability rate of 50% is a potential flaw in the CANSLIM =
system.  Please remember, however, the primary theme of the Tharp book: =
Expectancy and frequency are the keys to system profitability, not entry =
reliability.

  =20

  Research into the expectancy of CANSLIM systems will reveal much more =
about potential flaws than analysis of entry reliability.  Drawdowns are =
another potential flaw.  You may want to investigate the size and =
duration of drawdowns within CANSLIM systems as well.

  =20

  A couple weeks ago, Katherine Malm published links to the AAII's =
annual summaries of performance for several dozen stock screens.  The =
CANSLIM screen is the second most profitable screen tracked by AAII.  =
Interestingly, the screen removes the technical entry (CWH breakout) =
many CANSLIMmers consider crucial to their systems.  Instead, the =
portfolio simply rebalances on a monthly basis across however many =
stocks meet the screen's requirements.  Despite being fully invested at =
all times, and despite buying stocks extended well beyond their pivot =
points, the screen has delivered positive returns in all of the last =
five years. =20

  =20

  If you research historical holdings within the AAII CANSLIM portfolio, =
you'll see that their entry reliability is below 50%.  Even with that =
potential flaw, the screen has a 5-year cumulative return of 350% =
through 2002.

  =20

  - Jeff

    ----- Original Message -----=20

    From: Jeff Henderson=20

    To: Canslim=20

    Sent: Sunday, August 17, 2003 5:17 PM

    Subject: [CANSLIM] negatives of CANSLIM

    =20

    Hi group,

    =20

    I'm glad that we can discuss companies using CANSLIM to evaluate =
companies, but I was wondering if any of you think there are any =
negatives to this system (as discussed in HTMMIS).  I think it's =
important to fully evaluate a system, look for any absolutes or =
conditionals in the system and evaluate it against other options.  For =
example I know CANSLIM works the best during a bull market and we are =
not in a full fledged bull market right now.  Also, as far as using =
WON's entry signals, specifically the chart patterns, I will quote Tharp =
from his book, Trade your way to Financial Freedom re:Chart patterns in =
general "However, such patterns are very difficult to computerize and =
thus test.  In addition when people do test these various patterns, they =
do not find anyevidence that they increase the reliability of entry =
signals beyond the 50 percent level."  I do not doubt WON's methods, but =
I believe that skepticism is healthy and that is beneficial to discuss =
potential flaws in a system.

    =20

    Jeff

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<DIV>&lt;&lt; What about exiting, do you think a percentage exit is ok =
to=20
use?&nbsp; I<BR>was thinking more about moving exits that deal with =
volatility=20
perhaps<BR>some multiple of the ATR. &gt;&gt;<BR><BR>Percentage exits =
and=20
volatility exits are both OK to use.&nbsp; Which is the<BR>better =
method?&nbsp;=20
That depends on the investor and his/her system.&nbsp; The<BR>best =
method may be=20
neither of these exit strategies, or a combination of<BR>both of=20
them.<BR><BR>You wouldn't say that one automobile model is best for =
everybody=20
who<BR>drives.&nbsp; Likewise, one exit strategy is not best for all =
investors,=20
or<BR>even all CANSLIM investors.&nbsp; The strategy must be compatible =
with=20
the<BR>investor, otherwise he/she might override it at just the wrong=20
time.<BR>The strategy must also be compatible with the overall system=20
employed.&nbsp; <BR><BR>You are drawn to a volatility-based exit =
strategy, and=20
that certainly is<BR>compatible with CANSLIM.&nbsp; You may want to test =
the=20
strategy before using<BR>it, so you learn how various volatility =
parameters=20
perform.&nbsp; If, for<BR>example, you get stopped out for losses on =
your first=20
five trades,<BR>you'll want to know if this is expected within your =
system or=20
an<BR>indication you're using an unprofitable system.<BR><BR>Below, I've =
pasted=20
a recently-published exit strategy written by someone<BR>using a =
CANSLIM-based=20
system.&nbsp; It's an example of how someone can<BR>customize percentage =
exits=20
to fit himself and his system.&nbsp; <BR><BR>- Jeff<BR><BR>The second =
part of=20
this note regards when to sell. It is said this is<BR>most important =
part of=20
being a Trader, yet if you pick bad stocks in the<BR>first place, sell =
criteria=20
will only minimize your losses and not<BR>maximize your gains. Still it =
is so=20
important to have exit criteria. It<BR>may not be perfect but the key =
here is to=20
remove emotion from your<BR>decision. If the criteria is not working =
then change=20
it, but at least<BR>establish one from the beginning - that is know at =
what=20
price you will<BR>place a Sell. I will use violation of obvious support =
levels=20
and also<BR>high volume down days, but what I seem to use the most is a =
formula=20
that<BR>calculates either a maximum loss or else a minimum gain if there =
is=20
a<BR>positive gain that existed. I first start with how much I am =
willing=20
to<BR>let a stock price drop from my buy price. There are several=20
suggestions<BR>out there, but I use 13% as stocks I buy tend to be a =
little=20
more<BR>volatile. The second sell point reference is I want at least a =
3%=20
gain<BR>if the stock made it up to 10%. This may mean selling a little =
early=20
in<BR>a Bull market, but since there is always another stock out there=20
taking<BR>in a small gain is okay with me rather than risking a loss. In =

between<BR>the 13% loss and the 3% gain I calculate another value. That =
is if=20
a<BR>stock gains 7% and then drops I would sell on a linearly adjusted=20
value<BR>between the 13% loss and the 3% gain. Finally my formula then =
looks=20
at<BR>Gains over 10%. Here, if the stock makes it to a 100% Gain I wish =
to=20
at<BR>least hold onto 75% of that and again a linearly adjusted amount=20
between<BR>the 10% and 100% value. My spreadsheet is programmed to tell =
me when=20
to<BR>sell and without any emotion I do so. The positive point of any =
sell=20
is<BR>this opens up funds for another stock to buy which is off its high =

yet<BR>makes the criteria above. I do not use Stop Loss Orders, only =
will=20
sell<BR>at the next open if my criteria is met. The big reason is that =
It=20
takes<BR>too much time to adjust orders as the price moves up, but also =
it=20
does<BR>avoid getting hit on a mid day correction.</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
  <A title=3DJHend746@cox.net href=3D"mailto:JHend746@cox.net">Jeff =
Henderson</A>=20
  </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
 </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, August 20, =
2003 7:07=20
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] =
negatives of=20
  CANSLIM</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV class=3DSection1>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Jeff,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Great =
point,=20
  thanks!<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>What about =
exiting, do=20
  you think a percentage exit is ok to use? <SPAN=20
  style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN>I was thinking more about =
moving exits=20
  that deal with volatility perhaps some multiple of the=20
  ATR.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DTahoma =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original=20
  Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B> =
<A=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@lists.xmis=
sion.com</A>=20
  [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] <B><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">On Behalf Of </SPAN></B>Jeff =
Mulder<BR><B><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Tuesday, August 19, 2003 =
10:35=20
  PM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
  canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
negatives of=20
  CANSLIM</SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
  size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <DIV>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">&lt;&lt; Also, as far as =
using=20
  WON=92s entry signals, specifically the chart patterns, I will quote =
Tharp from=20
  his book, <U>Trade your way to Financial Freedom</U> re:Chart patterns =
in=20
  general =93However, such patterns are very difficult to computerize =
and thus=20
  test.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>In addition when =
people do=20
  test these various patterns, they do not find anyevidence that they =
increase=20
  the reliability of entry signals beyond the 50 percent level.=94<SPAN=20
  style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>I do not doubt WON=92s =
methods, but I=20
  believe that skepticism is healthy and that is beneficial to discuss =
potential=20
  flaws in a system. &gt;&gt;</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
  <DIV>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
  size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt">&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
  <DIV>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Your paragraph above =
uses a quote=20
  from Van Tharp's book to suggest that a reliability rate of 50% is a =
potential=20
  flaw in the CANSLIM system.&nbsp; Please remember, however, the =
primary theme=20
  of the Tharp book: Expectancy and frequency are the keys to system=20
  profitability, not entry =
reliability.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
  <DIV>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
  size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt">&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
  <DIV>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Research into the =
expectancy of=20
  CANSLIM systems will reveal much more about potential flaws than =
analysis of=20
  entry reliability.&nbsp; Drawdowns are another potential flaw.&nbsp; =
You may=20
  want to investigate the size and duration of drawdowns within CANSLIM =
systems=20
  as well.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
  <DIV>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
  size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt">&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
  <DIV>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">A couple weeks ago, =
Katherine Malm=20
  published links to the AAII's annual summaries of performance for =
several=20
  dozen stock screens.&nbsp; The CANSLIM screen is the second most =
profitable=20
  screen tracked by AAII.&nbsp; Interestingly, the screen removes the =
technical=20
  entry (CWH breakout) many CANSLIMmers consider crucial to their =
systems.&nbsp;=20
  Instead, the portfolio simply rebalances on a monthly basis across =
however=20
  many stocks meet the screen's requirements.&nbsp; Despite being fully =
invested=20
  at all times, and despite buying stocks extended well beyond their =
pivot=20
  points, the screen has delivered positive returns in all of the last =
five=20
  years.&nbsp; </SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
  <DIV>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
  size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt">&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
  <DIV>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">If you research =
historical=20
  holdings within the AAII CANSLIM portfolio, you'll see that their =
entry=20
  reliability is below 50%.&nbsp; Even with that potential flaw, the =
screen has=20
  a 5-year cumulative return of 350% through=20
  2002.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
  <DIV>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
  size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt">&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
  <DIV>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">-=20
  Jeff</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE=20
  style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN: 5pt 0in 5pt =
3.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: black 1.5pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none">
    <DIV>
    <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
    style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">----- Original Message =
- -----=20
    <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
    <DIV style=3D"font-color: black">
    <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; MARGIN-LEFT: =
0.5in"><B><FONT=20
    face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
    style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">From:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
    face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> <A=20
    title=3DJHend746@cox.net href=3D"mailto:JHend746@cox.net">Jeff =
Henderson</A>=20
    <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
    <DIV>
    <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
    size=3D2><SPAN=20
    style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">To:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
    face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> <A=20
    title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
    href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">Canslim</A>=20
    <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
    <DIV>
    <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
    size=3D2><SPAN=20
    style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Sent:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
    face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> Sunday,=20
    August 17, 2003 5:17 PM<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
    <DIV>
    <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
    size=3D2><SPAN=20
    style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Subject:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
    face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">=20
    [CANSLIM] negatives of CANSLIM<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
    <DIV>
    <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3D"Times New Roman"=20
    size=3D3><SPAN=20
    style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
    <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
    style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Hi=20
    group,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
    <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
    style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
    <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
    style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">I=92m glad that we can =
discuss=20
    companies using CANSLIM to evaluate companies, but I was wondering =
if any of=20
    you think there are any negatives to this system (as discussed in=20
    HTMMIS).<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>I think =
it=92s important=20
    to fully evaluate a system, look for any absolutes or conditionals =
in the=20
    system and evaluate it against other options.<SPAN=20
    style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>For example I know CANSLIM =
works the=20
    best during a bull market and we are not in a full fledged bull =
market right=20
    now.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>Also, as far as =
using=20
    WON=92s entry signals, specifically the chart patterns, I will quote =
Tharp=20
    from his book, <U>Trade your way to Financial Freedom</U> re:Chart =
patterns=20
    in general =93However, such patterns are very difficult to =
computerize and=20
    thus test.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>In =
addition when=20
    people do test these various patterns, they do not find anyevidence =
that=20
    they increase the reliability of entry signals beyond the 50 percent =

    level.=94<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>I do not =
doubt WON=92s=20
    methods, but I believe that skepticism is healthy and that is =
beneficial to=20
    discuss potential flaws in a system.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
    <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
    style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
    <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
    style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Jeff<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE><=
/BODY></HTML>

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