Re: [CANSLIM] HITK--Volume Studies-Part 9, OSTE

From: Tomas <tomas986@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK--Volume Studies-Part 9, OSTE
Date: Thu, 21 Aug 2003 18:54:56 -0700 (PDT)
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DMC,

Thanks for the thorough analysis.  A few questions. 
What is ATR?  What it the significant of the moving
average crossing?

Why do you consider HITK a good short candidate but
not OSTE?  Is it because HITK has lower highs and
lower lows, and you can guess it going down until the
next support level?  And for OSTE, with its constant
downward trend, it is hard to tell when to short?

tomas

- --- DMC197807 <dmc197807@comcast.net> wrote:
> Despite the evident bull market, these two stocks
> are content (or intent) on
> playing out their destinies as foreshadowed by
> volume studies (see below).
> HITK has had its bounce up from 21.21 and found
> resistance, plenty of it,
> below that last high on the daily chart.  So, we can
> see, in about a month,
> descending highs from 31.29, 28.24 and 27.44. 
> Likewise we can see
> descending lows at 25.22, 23.40 and 21.12.  Next
> support is 20, volatility
> in this name (ATR) is dropping as the stock forms a
> familiar, small candle,
> ratchet down pattern.  IBD is still showing an A-
> rating on this stock, but
> I don't think that will save it.  Moving averages
> are converging, getting
> ready for a nasty cross which should seal this
> stock's short term fate.
> Those looking for a short might consider shorting
> this here at 25 and
> covering it just before it contends with the $20
> level; or covering half and
> waiting to see if it plunges through.
> 
> On OSTE, last time we looked at it it was struggling
> to hold above the $13
> line.  Now it's struggling to holdt $12.  The image
> that comes to mind with
> stocks in this situation is drowning.  It still
> looks like 11, 8 and 6.50
> for support on the way down, but I don't see the
> space-time continuum
> working out for shorting this one.
> 
> Btw, someone on SI was nice enough 5 days ago to
> mention SOI to me as sort
> of a high risk, high reward play.  Today it soared
> over 310% at one point,
> on apparent resolution of their survival issues. 
> Did I play it?  No, I
> looked it over and thought, with all its troubles,
> it was a long shot.  It
> just turned out to be a long shot, however, that
> paid off nicely.
> 
> DMC
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "DMC197807" <dmc197807@comcast.net>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, August 12, 2003 8:33 AM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK--Volume Studies-Part 8,
> OSTE
> 
> 
> > As part of the continuing monitoring, some might
> be tempted by the little
> > run up in HITK prices we've seen in HITK, from
> 21.12 to 24.98.  Don't be.
> > It's doing this on sinking volume.  Next step down
> will most likely be a
> > true test of 20 (for the rest of the chart see
> earlier messages below).
> >
> > As for OSTE, a stock that was lamented as a big
> breaker going down despite
> > great fundies and great TA (from a black box, as I
> recall), the stock is
> now
> > in a more sustainable downtrend, looking for
> support at 11, 8 and about
> 6.50
> > by my charts.  Anyone tempted by the little uptick
> today, the first one in
> 6
> > days, had better be nimble.
> >
> > As important as it is to know when to buy and when
> to sell, maybe the most
> > important component (Cool Hand Luke's "sometime's
> nuthin' is a real cool
> > hand") is when to stand aside.
> >
> > DMC
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "DMC197807" <dmc197807@comcast.net>
> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Wednesday, August 06, 2003 10:39 AM
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK--Volume Studies
> >
> >
> > > Yien,
> > >
> > > I think you're correct.  In hindsight it's too
> easy to go back and mine
> > some
> > > indicators and say, "ah ha!" that was the
> signal, but life ( and the
> > > markets) are messier than that.
> > >
> > > Having said that, you can always be a little
> nervous of a stock which
> more
> > > than triples in 4 months (15 to 49) and begin to
> look for signs not to
> > sell
> > > but to tighten your stops.  On this one, you
> look at the 50 day and say
> if
> > > it breaks that, then I should go.  Or you look
> at the price action in
> June
> > > July where there are some consecutive doji days
> and the Bollinger Bands
> > are
> > > tightening.
> > >
> > > Just focusing on volume, after the 49.90 high
> day you had a selloff and
> a
> > > falloff in volume; some people can see that as
> normal price/volume
> action,
> > > but given the chart, it definitely showed a
> falloff in buying interest
> in
> > a
> > > stock which in a few days soft off from 49.90 to
> 36.07.  What?  No
> > interest
> > > at all at a 37% discount?   Clearly a signal.
> > >
> > > The best key to finding a top might be the
> topping pattern which was a
> gap
> > > and solitary black candle on the day it hit
> 49.90.  The market gapped it
> > up
> > > but there were no more buyers at higher prices
> and the thing sold off in
> > > mid-air.  At that point, if one was long and
> watching, it would have
> been
> > a
> > > good idea to set a stop loss at minus 6%, or at
> about $44-45, depending
> on
> > > when you made your analysis.  For all stocks you
> have to constantly ask
> > > yourself, are there going to be more buyers up
> higher, or have we made
> the
> > > top?
> > >
> > > Also, if you draw a big trendline on the stock,
> connecting the bottoms
> you
> > > can see, even being generous, that any close
> below 45 was signalling the
> > end
> > > game.
> > >
> > > But for all that, during the time in question I
> was either visiting
> young
> > > relatives in the hospital or caring for an aging
> relative at a nursing
> > home
> > > (and a few days later, a funeral home), so I
> wasn't paying that much
> > > attention at the time.
> > >
> > > DMC
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Yien T Lung" <ylung@engin.umich.edu>
> > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, August 06, 2003 10:13 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK--Volume Studies
> > >
> > >
> > > > DMC
> > > >
> > > > Concerning HITK, what were the technical
> indicators that told you had
> to
> > > > get out of this stock ASAP?
> > > >
> > > > From my limited undertanding of TA (so bear
> with me), HITK should have
> > > > been sold on July 16 because:
> > > > - Smashed through the 50MA support
> > > > - Going down at above average volume
> > > > - Closed near to the low of the day
> > > >
> > > > Were there other factors that justified
> getting 
=== message truncated ===


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