Re: [CANSLIM] HITK--Volume Studies-Part 9, OSTE

From: "Dan Forant" <dforant1@nycap.rr.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK--Volume Studies-Part 9, OSTE
Date: Fri, 22 Aug 2003 07:10:04 -0400
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OSTE doesn't look like a good short candidate to me. This baby has had a
severe and long correction. It could reverse anytime if only for a short
time. Is could be worthwhile to check the option call and put prices before
shorting. As in this case more believe it will turn then keep moving down.

DanF

- ----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Tomas" <tomas986@yahoo.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Thursday, August 21, 2003 9:54 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK--Volume Studies-Part 9, OSTE


> DMC,
>
> Thanks for the thorough analysis.  A few questions.
> What is ATR?  What it the significant of the moving
> average crossing?
>
> Why do you consider HITK a good short candidate but
> not OSTE?  Is it because HITK has lower highs and
> lower lows, and you can guess it going down until the
> next support level?  And for OSTE, with its constant
> downward trend, it is hard to tell when to short?
>
> tomas
>
> --- DMC197807 <dmc197807@comcast.net> wrote:
> > Despite the evident bull market, these two stocks
> > are content (or intent) on
> > playing out their destinies as foreshadowed by
> > volume studies (see below).
> > HITK has had its bounce up from 21.21 and found
> > resistance, plenty of it,
> > below that last high on the daily chart.  So, we can
> > see, in about a month,
> > descending highs from 31.29, 28.24 and 27.44.
> > Likewise we can see
> > descending lows at 25.22, 23.40 and 21.12.  Next
> > support is 20, volatility
> > in this name (ATR) is dropping as the stock forms a
> > familiar, small candle,
> > ratchet down pattern.  IBD is still showing an A-
> > rating on this stock, but
> > I don't think that will save it.  Moving averages
> > are converging, getting
> > ready for a nasty cross which should seal this
> > stock's short term fate.
> > Those looking for a short might consider shorting
> > this here at 25 and
> > covering it just before it contends with the $20
> > level; or covering half and
> > waiting to see if it plunges through.
> >
> > On OSTE, last time we looked at it it was struggling
> > to hold above the $13
> > line.  Now it's struggling to holdt $12.  The image
> > that comes to mind with
> > stocks in this situation is drowning.  It still
> > looks like 11, 8 and 6.50
> > for support on the way down, but I don't see the
> > space-time continuum
> > working out for shorting this one.
> >
> > Btw, someone on SI was nice enough 5 days ago to
> > mention SOI to me as sort
> > of a high risk, high reward play.  Today it soared
> > over 310% at one point,
> > on apparent resolution of their survival issues.
> > Did I play it?  No, I
> > looked it over and thought, with all its troubles,
> > it was a long shot.  It
> > just turned out to be a long shot, however, that
> > paid off nicely.
> >
> > DMC
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "DMC197807" <dmc197807@comcast.net>
> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Tuesday, August 12, 2003 8:33 AM
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK--Volume Studies-Part 8,
> > OSTE
> >
> >
> > > As part of the continuing monitoring, some might
> > be tempted by the little
> > > run up in HITK prices we've seen in HITK, from
> > 21.12 to 24.98.  Don't be.
> > > It's doing this on sinking volume.  Next step down
> > will most likely be a
> > > true test of 20 (for the rest of the chart see
> > earlier messages below).
> > >
> > > As for OSTE, a stock that was lamented as a big
> > breaker going down despite
> > > great fundies and great TA (from a black box, as I
> > recall), the stock is
> > now
> > > in a more sustainable downtrend, looking for
> > support at 11, 8 and about
> > 6.50
> > > by my charts.  Anyone tempted by the little uptick
> > today, the first one in
> > 6
> > > days, had better be nimble.
> > >
> > > As important as it is to know when to buy and when
> > to sell, maybe the most
> > > important component (Cool Hand Luke's "sometime's
> > nuthin' is a real cool
> > > hand") is when to stand aside.
> > >
> > > DMC
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "DMC197807" <dmc197807@comcast.net>
> > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, August 06, 2003 10:39 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK--Volume Studies
> > >
> > >
> > > > Yien,
> > > >
> > > > I think you're correct.  In hindsight it's too
> > easy to go back and mine
> > > some
> > > > indicators and say, "ah ha!" that was the
> > signal, but life ( and the
> > > > markets) are messier than that.
> > > >
> > > > Having said that, you can always be a little
> > nervous of a stock which
> > more
> > > > than triples in 4 months (15 to 49) and begin to
> > look for signs not to
> > > sell
> > > > but to tighten your stops.  On this one, you
> > look at the 50 day and say
> > if
> > > > it breaks that, then I should go.  Or you look
> > at the price action in
> > June
> > > > July where there are some consecutive doji days
> > and the Bollinger Bands
> > > are
> > > > tightening.
> > > >
> > > > Just focusing on volume, after the 49.90 high
> > day you had a selloff and
> > a
> > > > falloff in volume; some people can see that as
> > normal price/volume
> > action,
> > > > but given the chart, it definitely showed a
> > falloff in buying interest
> > in
> > > a
> > > > stock which in a few days soft off from 49.90 to
> > 36.07.  What?  No
> > > interest
> > > > at all at a 37% discount?   Clearly a signal.
> > > >
> > > > The best key to finding a top might be the
> > topping pattern which was a
> > gap
> > > > and solitary black candle on the day it hit
> > 49.90.  The market gapped it
> > > up
> > > > but there were no more buyers at higher prices
> > and the thing sold off in
> > > > mid-air.  At that point, if one was long and
> > watching, it would have
> > been
> > > a
> > > > good idea to set a stop loss at minus 6%, or at
> > about $44-45, depending
> > on
> > > > when you made your analysis.  For all stocks you
> > have to constantly ask
> > > > yourself, are there going to be more buyers up
> > higher, or have we made
> > the
> > > > top?
> > > >
> > > > Also, if you draw a big trendline on the stock,
> > connecting the bottoms
> > you
> > > > can see, even being generous, that any close
> > below 45 was signalling the
> > > end
> > > > game.
> > > >
> > > > But for all that, during the time in question I
> > was either visiting
> > young
> > > > relatives in the hospital or caring for an aging
> > relative at a nursing
> > > home
> > > > (and a few days later, a funeral home), so I
> > wasn't paying that much
> > > > attention at the time.
> > > >
> > > > DMC
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Yien T Lung" <ylung@engin.umich.edu>
> > > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 06, 2003 10:13 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK--Volume Studies
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > DMC
> > > > >
> > > > > Concerning HITK, what were the technical
> > indicators that told you had
> > to
> > > > > get out of this stock ASAP?
> > > > >
> > > > > From my limited undertanding of TA (so bear
> > with me), HITK should have
> > > > > been sold on July 16 because:
> > > > > - Smashed through the 50MA support
> > > > > - Going down at above average volume
> > > > > - Closed near to the low of the day
> > > > >
> > > > > Were there other factors that justified
> > getting
> === message truncated ===
>
>
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