Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Non CANSLIM - Employment Report - For Economics Majors only
Date: Sat, 4 Dec 1999 11:19:21 -0500
Previous Article (by Date): RE: [CANSLIM] Stock Candidiates "Dan Sutton"
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I noted a disturbing statistical fact in one of the reports emailed to me weekly, as follows: Specifically, if one averages nonfarm payrolls, to smooth out the month-to-month fluctuations, the "trend" is not good. For instance, average monthly gains for each quarter this year are as follows: First Quarter 209,000 Second Quarter 210,000 Third Quarter 201,667 October/November 248,500 This led to a further question in my mind: How can we add a qtr million jobs (more or less) every month and still remain at the same "hard core" unemployment rate of the low 4%?? Conclusion: there must be a fresh infusion of labor into the labor pool, such as college graduates (some do finish in Dec rather than May/June) as well as high school graduates/dropouts. Admittedly, there could also be a sig nr of retirees finding out that Social Security isn't all its cracked up to be, and taking part or full time employment. I have seen no indication that this very important Labor Report is accounting for any fresh infusion of workers. Anyone have any source for this, or further ideas on accounting/anticipating for it? Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - -
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