Re: The Great Boom Ahead

From: Somesh Rao <somesh@syl.nj.nec.com>
Subject: Re: The Great Boom Ahead
Date: Mon, 22 Jun 1998 10:41:09 -0400

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>I've recently read a couple of books "The Great Boom Ahead", and "The Roaring
>2000's" by Harry S. Dent.  Dent uses a simple and overlooked correlation
>between the age & size of the population and its relation to the value of the
>stock market.  The graphs in his book show a REMARKABLE relationship between
>the peak spending years of our population, and the stock market.
>
>The book, written in 1993 when the Dow Industrials stood at 2800, predicted a
>solid boom in the US stock market. And indeed it has happened, our current Dow
>has been as high as 9000 --  unthinkable in 1993.  I think Mr. Dent makes a
>strong case to be optimistic over the next decade.  This is a good thing to
>keep in mind during the stock market volatility we've seen over the past
>days/weeks.
>
>A chart of some of Mr. Dent's work can be seen at:
>
>	ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/GreatBoom2.gif
>
>Take a look at the chart and toss out your questions and thoughts to the group

Jeff,

I think we are comparing Apples and Oranges. The author is corelating the Dow
index with the immigration adjusted births in the USA.

In today economy where various countries economies are not isolated and
companies do business all over the world, don't you think it would make more
sense in todays world to compare the worlds population (or for a better
fit, the population of our largest trading partners) against the dow?

If this corelation is correct, in my opinion, the fall predicted from 
2010 to 2023 may not be as severe since the world population is still
growing, and I expect global trade to expand exponentiallyi( the trend
has already started with EU and NAFTA, WTO etc). 

Somesh



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